The betting market for the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft has seen plenty of wild swings. One notable occurrence was in 2022, when Pablo Banchero moved from 16-1 to -200 the morning of the draft.
Former ESPN NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski then tweeted that the “1-2-3 of the NBA Draft is increasingly firm, per sources” and noted Banchero was likely to go No. 3 to Houston and Jabari Smith No. 1 to Orlando. Sportsbooks took down the odds and re-posted with Smith as the favorite. Banchero ended up going No. 1 overall to the Magic later that night.
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While it’s unlikely we’ll have a unique betting situation like that again this year, there is still plenty of doubt at No. 1, even as BYU’s A.J. Dybantsa has separated from the pack a bit, according to the betting odds.
Between sportsbooks and prediction markets, there is more information available than ever before, and more markets to bet/trade on. Be sure to check out Kevin O’Connor’s NBA Draft Guide for mock drafts and information about every prospect.
Here is a mock draft of the top 10 selections, based on choosing the current favorite at each slot from a sportsbook or prediction market:
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1. Washington Wizards: A.J. Dybantsa, forward, BYU (-375)
Dybantsa opened as a sizable underdog (+360) to Darryn Peterson to go No. 1 overall, but he passed Peterson as the favorite in early March and his play in the tournament — along with questions surrounding Peterson — helped improve those odds even more. The Wizards have a jumbled roster of promising young players and veterans (Anthony Davis and Trae Young), so taking the best player available seems like the way to go. Dybansta is a terrific athlete and showed at BYU that he can do a little bit of everything.
2. Utah Jazz: Darryn Peterson, guard, Kansas (-175)
The Jazz finally got some ping-pong ball luck and now have the opportunity to take Peterson if the Wizards go with Dybantsa. The initial favorite to go No. 1 overall, Peterson’s cramping issues — which he explained was due to taking high doses of creatine — and lack of motor on the court have caused his stock to take a little bit of a hit. He could easily wind up as the best player in this draft, though.
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The most polished and NBA-ready prospect in this class, the 6-foot-8 forward from Duke can do a little bit of everything very well. The concern is that he’s not an elite athlete and he didn’t exactly light the world on fire in the NCAA tournament. In Memphis, though, he’d be paired with a true center in Zach Edey, who could help on the defensive end. Boozer’s odds to go No. 3 have improved in recent days, as have his odds to go No. 2 overall.
4. Chicago Bulls: Caleb Wilson, forward, UNC (-325)
A late riser in the process, Wilson is the overwhelming favorite at No. 4, with only Boozer (+375) in single-digit odds. The UNC forward is a terrific athlete and has tremendous upside, but is far from a finished product.
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5. L.A. Clippers: Keaton Wagler, guard, Illinois (+233)
This is one pick where prediction markets and some betting markets disagree. Wagler (30% chance) is a very slight favorite ahead of Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. (29%), who is the favorite at BetMGM. Arkansas star guard Darius Acuff Jr. is also in the mix (25%). Remember that a wager on which player goes No. 5 is tied to the draft position, not the team that picks here, as it’s been rumored the Clippers could trade this pick.
6. Brooklyn Nets: Darius Acuff Jr., guard, Arkansas (+250)
Another slot with several players in the mix, as Acuff is the favorite at BetMGM to go No. 6, followed by Wagler (+275) and Brown Jr. (+300). The Arkansas guard is a natural scorer and facilitator, but is a bit undersized at 6-2. The Nets need stars, though, and Acuff certainly has that potential. Wagler (30%) is the favorite to go No. 6 on prediction market Kalshi, ahead of Brown Jr. (29%).
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7. Sacramento Kings: Kingston Flemings, guard, Houston (+325)
Acuff (+170) is the favorite at No. 7 as well, but he can’t go twice in a mock draft, so the pick shifts to Flemings (+325). Louisville’s Brown (+400) is the third choice at this slot, just ahead of Wagler (+450). Flemings was Houston’s go-to player as a freshman, but couldn’t get the Cougars over the hump in the NCAA tournament.
8. Atlanta Hawks: Aday Mara, center, Michigan (+250)
You can’t teach size, and Mara (7-3) certainly has that. He’s the favorite (24% chance at Kalshi) at No. 8, with Flemings (18%) the second choice. This pick could also be used in a potential Giannis Antetokounmpo deal.
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9. Dallas Mavericks: Brayden Burries, guard, Arizona (+175)
There is more consensus on this pick than a few weeks ago, as Burries (32%) is now a clear favorite ahead of everyone else. Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Connor said NBA executives believe Burries was “one of the biggest risers of the NBA Draft Combine.”
Burries (+400 at BetMGM) is the favorite at this spot, with Tennessee’s Nate Ament (+500) right behind him. There are currently six players with an single-digit odds to go 10th overall, so there is far from a consensus here. Ament is a very toolsy player who struggled in the NCAA tournament in March.
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