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Fueled by their relentless depth and star power, the Oklahoma City Thunder lead the pack in the early 2026 NBA Cup odds from Polymarket — one of our best prediction market apps.
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The path to the trophy won’t be easy, however, with the Philadelphia 76ers and San Antonio Spurs looming as short-priced threats right behind them.
As summer inches closer to its end & we move toward the return of the NBA making its return, we take an early look at the latest Emirates NBA Cup odds for this upcoming season, along with the schedule and in-season tournament groups.
2026 NBA Cup odds
|
Team |
|
|
Oklahoma City Thunder |
22% |
|
San Antonio Spurs |
20% |
|
Philadelphia 76ers |
13% |
|
Boston Celtics |
11% |
|
Detroit Pistons |
10% |
|
New York Knicks |
8% |
|
Minnesota Timberwolves |
7% |
|
Los Angeles Lakers |
6% |
|
Miami Heat |
6% |
|
Cleveland Cavaliers |
6% |
Odds last updated on 8-30. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
2026 NBA Cup odds favorites
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder received what I consider the easiest draw among the Western Conference favorites. The Minnesota Timberwolves will be looking to establish their identity early in the season with the addition of LaMelo Ball, while the other three teams in their group—the Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, and New Orleans Pelicans—aren’t teams we expect to be in the NBA Playoffs.
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San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs were the finalists in the NBA Cup last season, ironically losing to the New York Knicks. This is a roster that has gained valuable experience since that loss and added even more depth with the offseason addition of Tobias Harris.
San Antonio is one of the top teams in the NBA, but it remains to be seen how aggressively they’ll manage the minutes of their young players early in the season after coming off an extended season that ended with a run to the NBA Finals.
Philadelphia 76ers
This isn’t a market where I’d look to back the Philadelphia 76ers because they’ll have plenty of kinks to work out early in the season. They’re also likely to manage the minutes of LeBron James and Joel Embiid to make sure both are healthy when the NBA Playoffs roll around.
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The Sixers are focused on winning an NBA Finals, not pushing the minutes of Embiid and James in a tournament that runs from October through December.
NBA Cup groups
The league’s 30 teams will all compete in randomly drawn groups for the opening round, divided by conference, as listed below:
|
DET |
NYK |
BOS |
|
TOR |
CLE |
ATL |
|
ORL |
PHI |
CHA |
|
MIL |
MIA |
CHI |
|
BKN |
IND |
WAS |
|
DEN |
OKC |
SAS |
|
HOU |
MIN |
LAL |
|
PHO |
LAC |
POR |
|
DAL |
NOP |
GSW |
|
UTAH |
MEM |
SAC |
🥇: Group winner
🥈: Wild Card
NBA Cup explained
Group Play
Each team will begin the tournament in one of six groups, divided by conference and randomly drawn from tiers based on the previous season’s record, to ensure relative competitive balance.
Within each group, all teams will play regular-season games against each other on designated Tournament Nights from October 31 to November 28: Every Friday and also Tuesday, November 25, and Wednesday, November 26.
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The records in those games determine who advances to the Knockout Round.
Knockout Round
The Knockout Round is comprised of eight teams, which begins on December 9-10:
-
The winners of each of the six groups
-
A wild-card team from each conference (the second-place team with the best record)
The Knockout Round is a single-elimination bracket. Teams in each conference with the best record will get home-court advantage in these matchups.
The semifinals and finals take place at Hinkle Fieldhouse on December 13 and 16, with the winner of each conference facing off for the NBA Cup.
Teams that make the knockout round will be awarded portions of an as-of-yet undisclosed prize pool, increasing the further they make it. A Tournament MVP and All-Tournament Team will also be awarded after play has concluded.
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Understanding NBA Cup odds
Sportsbooks will post odds for the NBA Cup during the prior offseason. These odds are adjusted throughout the season as players switch teams, show steady improvement, or are injured. Sportsbooks will also adjust the NBA odds based on handle and liability to certain teams.
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NBA Cup odds will usually look like this:
-
Los Angeles Lakers +1,300
This means that on a $100 bet, you’ll stand to win $1,300 if the Lakers win the tournament. If it’s close to the end of the tournament and the NBA has a particularly dominant team, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of its odds.
This means you have to bet $180 to win $100 on a Nuggets tournament win.
Above, we have listed the American odds. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool. And don’t forget to check out our NBA forum if you’re interested in chatting with other basketball bettors about NBA odds.
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