If you’ve been a long time follower of my work, you’ve seen me write many times from the perspective of glass half empty, glass half full. I particularly like to do it when you could justifiably look at a game and go either way with the information you got out of it. I thought Tuesday night was one of those games. As usual, your mileage may vary.
The glass is half empty. The Marlins won their 77th game Tuesday night. They are a full 10 games behind the Cubs. I doubt scores are much of a spoiler this time of the year, but all three Wild Card teams finished Tuesday in a three-way tie. So the Marlins are then 10 games out of a playoff spot. If they swept their last five games (it would be very bad news for the Cubs) they would end up with 82 wins. Just better than .500. They are improved, but they are at least one tier removed from the caliber of playoff teams. Struggling to score runs, needing an unearned run to end up with two runs in 12 innings, eventually losing to the Marlins, it’s all not great.
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The middle of the road pitching staff Marlins stifled your offense, not for nine innings but 12? Obviously, Alex Bregman was out. Get well soon Alex! The good news with him is that he does appear to have missed all of the worst outcomes. But it still remains to be seen if his field of vision is clear enough for the fine skills necessary for playing baseball. Without him in the lineup we saw something we haven’t seen a ton of. That is, Pete Crow-Armstrong getting intentionally walked. Between his speed and the lineup support he has, that hasn’t been a readily deployed strategy even as he skyrockets to the top of nearly top of seemingly every offensive category.
This game was a real drag. After tying this game, the Cubs had opportunity after opportunity to win it and just could not come up with the combination of plays to make it happen. The bullpen was so good for so long. But ultimately, the collective bullpen ends up with lousy collective numbers. In the end, the Cub bullpen worked seven innings and allowed seven runs, six of them earned. That’s brutal. Surely I’m not the only one who flashed back to Ryan Pressly’s 11th inning from May of last year?
So much not good here.
But also, the glass was half full. This game was probably not playoff caliber. But it did end up having a playoff like feel to it. Wrigley was jumping when the Cubs rallied to tie the game. It’s an interesting thing to me. Ian Happ feels pretty universally loved at Wrigley Field and largely disliked on social media. I’m not sure if I can think of a player with that kind of gap between different portions of the fandom. Pedro Strop is the last polarizing figure I can remember like that. A guy who people either really liked or really didn’t.
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The crowd buzzed as the bullpen held the Marlins down, giving the Cubs all of those opportunities to win. Daniel Palencia faced four batters and retired them all. Ryan Rolison faced five batters and retired four. Ryan Zeferjahn wiggled out of a jam. Those are the guys you are going to have to count on out of your pen. Aaron Civale gave up a really rare homer (at least as a Cub), but also faced eight batters and retired six. Your first four choices out of the Cub bullpen (save for maybe Jacob Webb) threw a total of 5.1 innings, facing 21 batters, allowing three hits, a walk and a hit batsman. You’d love for your starter to get a few more outs than that, but otherwise you’d take that as a start.
Palencia particularly seems to be regaining some of his form. Ryan Rolison has been surprisingly good as a Cub and Ryan Zeferjahn… well, he’s an adventure. But the Cubs didn’t lose this one on his watch. Again, not necessarily the bullpen you want, but it’s what you’ve got. You saw reasons to believe they could hold a lead for this team in a playoff atmosphere.
For me, other than the general frustration of a winnable game slipping away, my one frustration is the way modern baseball affects a game like this. We’ve done years of studies and correctly determined that outs are way too valuable a commodity to give away. So much so that it is generally a bad idea to sacrifice bunt. That’s all well and good and given the amount of time I spend looking at WPA and run expectancy, I’m as aware of those things as anyone. Also, all of that math starts slipping away in the bottom half of an extra inning tie game. In that spot it is very much worth it to sacrifice the ghost runner to third to start the inning. But it is darn hard to execute a skill under pressure that you basically never use.
Heavy sigh. There’s always the next one.
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Three Positives:
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Pete Crow-Armstrong had a single, double, two walks (on intentional) and his 39th stolen base. I’m going to keep saying that it is a remarkable season weather he reaches 45/40 or not. Our infatuation with round numbers is silly sometimes.
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Daniel Palencia’s four up/four down.
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Ryan Rolison’s five up/four down.
Game 157, September 22: Marlins 8, Cubs 2 (87-70)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
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Superhero: Ryan Rolison (.280). 1.1 IP, 5 BF, H, 2 K
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Hero: Daniel Palencia (.170). 1.1 IP, 4 BF, K
THREE GOATS:
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Billy Goat: Pedro Ramirez (-.328). 0-5
Note: Edward Cabrera’s -.175 was the fifth lowest score. Caleb Thielbar was actually a .065 because he got out of a jam the previous inning. So in the end, the cumulative struggles of the offense outweighed that 12th inning, aided by the split inning between Thielbar and Cabrera.
WPA Play of the Game: Caleb Thielbar got Esteury Ruiz to pop foul to first with the bases loaded and one out in the 11th. (.193)
Marlins Play of the Game: Griffin Conine’s RBI single that started the scoring in the 12th inning with no outs. (.181)
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Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 156 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 55 of 91 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
Scoreboard Watching: Congratulations to the Rays on clinching the AL East title. Diamondbacks win and stay alive, four back of the three wild cards. Phillies win. Padres lose. All three teams are tied for the Wild Card spots. The clock remains very close to midnight on the Diamondbacks season.
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Up Next: The Cubs are going to need some length out of Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.55) to reset their bullpen after this game. In eight starts as a Cub, two of the have gone seven innings (both wins) and has pitched past the end of five one other time, that being last time when he made it 5.2 innings. He allowed a run over five innings as a Blue Jay starter against this Marlins team earlier this year.
Ryan Gusto (1-5, 4.14) starts for the Marlins. The 27-year-old righty has lost two of his last three starts, including one against the Cubs. He allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Cubs a couple of weeks ago. Let’s hope the Cubs can get their bats going Tuesday.
Find a way, win a game. Celebrate a playoff spot and find the good vibes. We’re going to need them to chase down that top Wild Card spot. It’s still very much on the table.
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