2026 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES
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First Tee: Thursday, August 20
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Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka (At This Course)
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Bellerive will look slightly different since its last appearance at the 2018 PGA Championship. Every bunker was dug up and replaced with bentgrass but will keep the original dimensions.
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Additionally, an extra 130 yards has been added to the scorecard, which has been spread across six holes.
The fairways are pretty generous (35-yard width), however most feature substantial sloping which will guide the ball towards rough and hazards. Still, it’s a bombs away course if a player’s accuracy can hold up. If accuracy is a concern, clubbing down and hitting longer irons in on approach shots is a viable strategy. I’ll lean towards the bombers, as at least one of them is going to be accurate enough throughout the week to take advantage of the wedges and enhanced scoring chances. In 2018, the field hit GIR at a 79% clip from the fairway opposed to a crippling 45% from the rough.
Now, there’s a chance the rough isn’t as penal for a BMW Championship opposed to a Major. If that’s the case, then the GIR will go up from the rough, leading us back to bombers.
BMW Preview & St. Jude Recap
Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2026 BMW Championship Picks, Bets, and One and Done selections. We’re diving deep into key stats, course fit, sleepers, fades, and model insights to help you attack BMW Championship week from every angle. Plus, a recap of St. Jude and Denmark, plus a look at LIV’s potential final event in Indianapolis and a way to fix the FedEx Cup playoffs.
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WATCH: BMW Championship Picks, Bets, One & Done | St. Jude Championship Recap, LIV Indianapolis Picks
KEY STATS
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COURSE
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Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
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Number of Sand Bunkers: 76
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Number of Holes Water is in Play: 8
Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 202 yards
→ Two under 190 and two over 210
2018 Brooks Koepka (PGA Championship): Double bogey on #6 Thursday (-3 on the 3’s after that)
Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 439 yards
→ Two under 400, four 460+
2018 Brooks Koepka (PGA Championship): Birdied the Par 4 Hole #1 in each of the final three days (4+ birdies on the front nine in all three of those rounds)
Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 579 yards
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2018 Brooks Koepka (PGA Championship): At least one birdie on a Par 5 in all four rounds, got both of them in Rounds 2 and 3.
PAST WINNERS
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2025 (Caves Valley): Scottie Scheffler -15
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2024 (Castle Pines): Keegan Bradley -12
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2023 (Olympia Fields): Viktor Hovland -17
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2022 (Wilmington): Patrick Cantlay -14
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2018 PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka -16
Tiger was 2nd, Adam Scott was 3rd, Stewart Cink/Jon Rahm were T-4th
It was all big, tall, striping lads at the 2018 PGA Championship. And also Molinari.
PAST WINNER DETAIL
2025: Scottie Scheffler -15 (+275, favored with Rory being the only other golfer with odds shorter than +1800) beat Robert MacIntyre by 2
T-3 at St. Jude, gained 2+ strokes T2G per round in each of his 3 events prior
2024: Keegan Bradley -12 (+12500) beat Sam Burns, Adam Scott, and Ludvig Aberg by 1
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T-59 at St. Jude, gained OTT in 5 straight events prior
2023: Viktor Hovland -17 (+1600, T-5th on the odds board) beat Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick by 2
T-13 at St. Jude, hadn’t lost strokes in a measured T2G event since the 2022 BMW Championship
2022: Patrick Cantlay -14 (+2000, T-8th on the odds board) beat Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff
T-57 at St. Jude, gained at least 0.7 strokes T2G in 6 events prior to disaster at St. Jude
2018 (PGA Championship): Brooks Koepka -16 (+1800) beat Tiger Woods by 2
5th at Bridgestone the week prior
Had his 4th best Ball Striking week of his career (+2.94 per round)
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The top 3 finishers this week were Top-10 APP and no worse than 22nd in putting
FIRST ROUND LEADERS
2025
62 – Robert MacIntyre (PM, 3 clear of any other golfer)
2024
66 – Keegan Bradley (AM, one of eight to shoot in the 60’s)
2023
65 – Rory McIlroy (PM) and Brian Harman (PM)
2022
64 – Keegan Bradley (AM)
2018 (PGA Championship)
64 – Gary Woodland (PM) … none of the podium finishers were closer than 5 strokes after Thursday
BMW CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
Cameron Young — Last week went off the rails in the third round (the other three were actually quite good), but really, Young has been held back by a frigid flat stick. As he has shown us all year, that comes and goes week-to-week. He’s gained off the driver in six straight, picked up an average of four strokes on approach in his three starts previous to Memphis, and, don’t forget, the guy almost won a Major a month ago. On paper, Young should challenge for a win if the putter is merely average. On the odds board, he’s somehow behind Ludvig in the outright winner market.
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Wyndham Clark — It seemed like the summer of Wyndham Clark had ended following missed cuts at The Open and Rocket Classic. But then he surged up the leaderboard last week in Memphis, gaining across the board and now gets a course with the same fairways (zoysia), but with far thicker landing areas. That’s the Wyndham cheat code. Plus, there’s his price. Although, Clark isn’t the most consistent player results-wise, in the outright market there’s no difference between 5th and 50th. While he does have a ton of variance, he actually wins tournaments which is better than most of the losers I wager on.
Michael Thorbjornsen — Long, straight, and just won on Bentgrass. Was sick all weekend at St. Jude, which could explain how he went from first-round leader to playing like me. Or he was simply bad. Since I’m betting him, I’ll choose to believe the former.
LIV Indy Jon Rahm +800 — It’s the last LIV event (as we know it), so may as well fire one more wager on LIV’s best player, who is actually third on the odds board this week.
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