After producing back-to-back national champions, the Big Ten has taken over the top of college football. Now, the SEC is looking to strike back in 2025.
Terrible Star Wars jokes aside, the SEC must be seething as rivals Ohio State and Michigan claim national titles. The Big Ten’s run follows a stretch in which SEC stalwarts Georgia, Alabama and LSU combined to win four straight natties. The balance of power has shifted north, and that trend appears likely to continue next fall. Two Big Ten teams — Ohio State first and Oregon third — are among the three favorites to win the 2025 national championship, with Texas holding the nation’s second-best odds, according to FanDuel.
The SEC faces major questions, and several coaches are at pivotal moments in their careers heading into 2025. Alabama fans are already questioning the future after an uninspiring start to the Kalen DeBoer era. LSU’s Brian Kelly failed to win 10 games for the first time in eight years. Georgia fell short of the national championship with a lackluster College Football Playoff loss to Notre Dame.
Still, oddsmakers project the SEC to send 12 teams to bowl games in 2025 — one fewer than last season, when Vanderbilt stormed the scene with a 7-6 record that included an upset over No. 1 Alabama.
FanDuel recently released its win totals for the SEC’s 16 teams, setting the stage for offseason speculation — and an opportunity to project whether these teams will exceed expectations or fall short. Let’s examine each team, predict every game on the schedule and see if a surprise or two awaits in 2025.
Alabama
Over/under 9.5
Wins: at Florida State, ULM, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, @Missouri, Tennessee, at South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois
Losses: at Georgia, at Auburn
Analysis: Fading Alabama in Year 2 under Kalen DeBoer has become popular after an inconsistent 2024 season, but I believe the Tide will rebound in 2025. DeBoer’s reunion offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and the expected transition to a quarterback better suited for the system should provide a boost.
Ty Simpson is the favorite to start under center, and DeBoer has praised him often this offseason. The expectation is for Alabama’s offense to be much more consistent. The schedule is favorable, though the toughest tests come on the road against rivals Georgia and Auburn. Those losses won’t sit well with Tide fans, but Alabama should still contend for the SEC title and a College Football Playoff spot. Pick: Over 9.5 (+110)
Over/under 5.5
Wins: Alabama A&M, Arkansas State, at Memphis, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Missouri
Losses: at Ole Miss, Notre Dame, at Tennessee, Auburn, at LSU, at Texas
Analysis: Sam Pittman saved his job with a bowl appearance, but Arkansas endured significant roster turnover for a second straight offseason.
Taylen Green returns at quarterback, and while he’s prone to mistakes, he’s a big-play threat on every snap with Bobby Petrino calling the shots. The defense could take a step back without Landon Jackson rushing the passer, and early spring reports indicate struggles along the defensive line.
Despite all of this and a brutal SEC road slate, finding six wins on the schedule isn’t too difficult. Pittman cannot afford to lose the programs first-ever matchup against Arkansas State. The backlash would be unlike anything a Razorbacks coach has seen. Pick: Over 5.5 (-115)
Auburn
Over/under 7.5
Wins: at Baylor, Ball State, South Alabama, Missouri, at Arkansas, Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, Mercer, Alabama
Losses: at Texas A&M, at Oklahoma, Georgia
Analysis: Auburn is a popular sleeper pick to reach the CFP, and it’s easy to see why. The Tigers are stacked, and with a competent quarterback finally at the controls, they are primed to tap into their immense offensive potential as the defense continues to improve.
Led by Cam Coleman the receiver room is loaded with potential game-breakers, and the offensive line looks solid for the first time since 2019. Auburn’s season opener at Baylor will be an early test. Road trips to Texas A&M and Oklahoma — quarterback Jackson Arnold’s former school — are dangerous. And remember, Freeze is 0-3 against Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia. Pick: Over 7.5 (-148)
Over/under 6.5
Wins: Long Island, South Florida, at Miami, Mississippi State, at Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida State
Losses: at LSU, Texas, at Texas A&M, Georgia, at Ole Miss
Analysis: It’s tempting to pick Florida as a potential threat to reach the CFP. The Gators have a dynamic quarterback in DJ Lagway and a solid defense, but the schedule is brutally difficult.
Trips to Miami, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss will be major challenges. Florida also plays just two home games during an eight-game stretch after opening the season with back-to-back games in The Swamp. The game at Kentucky looks winnable, and we’ll side with the Gators to get revenge for last year in their early-season showdown at Miami. That projects to a record similar to last season but without a strong finish. Pick: Over 6.5 (-148)
Georgia
Over/under 9.5
Wins: Marshall, Austin Peay, Alabama, Kentucky, at Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, at Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech
Losses: at Tennessee
Analysis: Georgia loses 15 starters from a team that fell short of expectations last season. So the Bulldogs might take another step backward, right? Wrong.
The Bulldogs struggled last season because receivers dropped too many passes. The defensive line, while elite at times, lacked consistency from snap to snap and game to game. That should change this fall after Kirby Smart brought in multiple game-changing receivers, led by USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas.
Georgia remains the sport’s premier program in recruiting, player retention and development. Gunner Stockton is a gamer, and even under heavy pressure, he repeatedly delivered in the CFP semifinal against Notre Dame. Pick: Over 9.5 (-178)
Kentucky
Over/under 4.5
Wins: Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Tennessee Tech
Losses: Ole Miss, at South Carolina, at Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, at Auburn, Florida, at Vanderbilt, at Louisville
Analysis: Last year Kentucky missed a bowl game last season for the first time since 2015, and quarterback issues have plagued the Wildcats for the past two seasons. Now they turn to seventh-year senior Zach Calzada, who hopes his fourth school will be his best stop.
The Wildcats relied heavily on the transfer portal to revamp the roster after a 4-8 season that included just one SEC win. However, no one truly knows how this team will perform until preseason camp begins in August.
What we do know is Calzada’s past, which featured few highlights until his two-year stint at FCS Incarnate Word. We also know Kentucky’s schedule is among the toughest in the country. The Wildcats face all three SEC playoff teams from last season and travel to South Carolina and Auburn.
They’ll need some of that Mark Stoops magic this fall. Pick: Under 4.5 (+116)
LSU
Over/under 8.5
Wins: Louisiana Tech, Florida, Southeastern Louisiana, at Ole Miss, South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Western Kentucky
Losses: at Clemson, at Alabama, at Oklahoma
Analysis: It’s easy to question Kelly’s coaching job so far with the Tigers, but that’s not the mindset here when all the evidence points to a big season for LSU.
The Tigers return the SEC’s leading returning passer in Garrett Nussmeier, and will have tremendous weapons around him. LSU signed the nation’s No. 1 transfer class, adding eight players from SEC rivals — including dynamic pass rushers Patrick Payton and Jack Pyburn, as well as two ready-made stars at receiver in Nic Anderson and Barion Brown.
LSU is replacing four starters along an offensive line that allowed just 15 sacks last season, the best mark in the conference. The schedule looks daunting, but even with losses to the toughest opponents on the road, there’s still a clear path to the CFP.
We’ll call for an early-season coin flip to go LSU’s way at Ole Miss after losing the opener to ACC favorite Clemson. Still, this schedule looks more like a 10-win slate than the nine-win mark we’re predicting today. Pick: Over 8.5 (-144)
Mississippi State
Over/under 3.5
Wins: at Southern Miss, Arizona State, Alcorn State, Northern Illinois
Losses: Tennessee, at Texas A&M, at Florida, Texas, at Arkansas, Georgia, at Missouri, Ole Miss
Analysis: It can’t get much worse than last season at Mississippi State. Two wins, a blowout home loss to Toledo, and an 0-for-the-SEC conference record is never a good look for a first-year head coach.
As expected, the Bulldogs overhauled the roster again. Jeff Lebby added 27 players from the transfer portal, ranking 28th nationally. Including high school signees there are 51 new additions to the roster — the second-highest in the country.
Baylor transfer Blake Shapen is expected to start at quarterback for a second straight year.
As for the schedule? Yikes. The Bulldogs face four playoff teams from last season, but the coaching staff had a solid game plan in a close road loss at Arizona State last fall. We’re feeling generous, so we’ll give MSU a slight edge at home against the Sun Devils this season.
The SEC schedule doesn’t offer many chances for wins. The “easiest” game might be the trip to Arkansas. It’s possible MSU could go winless in conference play again. Lebby cannot afford an early-season loss at Southern Miss. Pick: Over 3.5 (-132)
Missouri
Over/under 7.5
Wins: Central Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, UMass, at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Losses: Alabama, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma, at Arkansas
Analysis: Missouri’s rise has been fun to watch the last two seasons, but how will coach Eli Drinkwitz refuel the machine? The Tigers lose quarterback Brady Cook, three starting receivers (including superstar Luther Burden) and three starters on the offensive line.
The odds of the Tigers notching a third straight 10-win season are low, given a schedule that includes Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. Still, the slate is much easier compared to others in the conference. The Tigers should contend for nine wins, but eight is more likely. Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
Oklahoma
Over/under 6.5
Wins: Illinois State, at Temple, Auburn, Kent State, at South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU
Losses: Michigan, Texas, at Tennessee, at Alabama
Analysis: It’s a make-or-break year for coach Brent Venables, and he’s betting on himself to win big. He will handle defensive play-calling duties this fall after recording a second losing season in three years. Venables also made big changes on offense in hiring Washington State coordinator Ben Arbuckle, who brought along top-tier quarterback John Mateer to turn around a struggling Sooners attack.
The offensive line should be better after leading the nation in sacks allowed, as they mixed and matched lineups during the first nine weeks of last season. The receiver room has to improve after an injury-plagued year led to infuriating inconsistency across the offense, which ranked 124th in yards per play (4.81) and 128th in yards per pass attempt (6.1).
Venables pushed the right buttons in the offseason, but will it translate to more than six wins? Week 2 brings a home date with Michigan and an opportunity to get the program back on the map. Trips to Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina are troublesome. Still, it’s not difficult to find seven wins on the schedule. These Sooners could surprise in the SEC this fall. Pick: Over 6.5 (-110)
Ole Miss
Over/under 8.5
Wins: Georgia State, at Kentucky, Arkansas, Tulane, Washington State, South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, at Mississippi State
Losses: LSU, at Georgia, at Oklahoma
Analysis: Are we falling for Lane Kiffin’s tricks again? Absolutely. The Rebels are sneakily stacked this year, even though many will point to the departures of six receivers, record-setting passer Jaxson Dart and superstar pass rusher Walter Nolen as significant losses. I’ll counter with the Portal King’s transfer class, which ranked No. 2 in the country. The impressive haul includes four pass catchers with more than 400 yards receiving last season.
Quarterback Austin Simmons has been impressive in spot duty and spring drills after spending two years as a backup. He knows the system and is prepared to shine. Dare we say (again) that Ole Miss might be a playoff contender this season? Pick: Over 8.5 (-188)
South Carolina
Over/under 7.5
Wins: Virginia Tech, South Carolina State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, at Texas A&M, Coastal Carolina
Losses: at Missouri, at LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, at Ole Miss, Clemson
Analysis: How could you not fall in love with South Carolina late last season? Quarterback LaNorris Sellers blossomed into a star, leading a late-season road upset over Clemson that put the nine-win Gamecocks firmly in the playoff conversation. All-American defensive end Kyle Kennard is off to the NFL, but edge rusher Dylan Stewart is a superstar in waiting after piling up 51 pressures as a true freshman last season, according to Pro Football Focus. The defense should be stout once again.
So, why the hesitation on picking a nine- or 10-win season? The receiver room doesn’t seem all that great, and Sellers needs help as he continues to develop as a passer. Also, that schedule is challenging. Trips to Missouri, LSU and Ole Miss are tricky, and hosting Alabama, Oklahoma and ACC favorite Clemson is no picnic. Still, the Gamecocks’ returning starters won’t lack confidence after close calls with Alabama and LSU last season. Pick: Under 7.5 (+118)
Tennessee
Over/under 9.5
Wins: Syracuse, East Tennessee State, Georgia, UAB, at Mississippi State, Arkansas, at Kentucky, Oklahoma, New Mexico State, Vanderbilt
Losses: at Alabama, at Florida
Analysis: This is an incredibly difficult pick, so I’m not sure I would touch this win total if I were a betting man. I believe the margin for error is wide for the Volunteers this fall — wider than LSU and Ole Miss — which makes me hesitate. Even so, I’m high on Rocky Top this offseason. I love Nico Iamaleava, and though he faces immense pressure with an $8 million NIL deal, he has the talent to excel in Josh Heupel’s offense this fall. Plus, the defense is set to continue its top-10 finishes with 67% of its production returning, according to ESPN’s SP+.
Oh, and that schedule is conducive to a double-digit win season. The Vols get Georgia and Oklahoma at home and travel to Alabama and Florida. We’ll go with an upset win against Georgia to push the Vols to 10 victories. There’s a wide spread here, and four losses are not out of the question, either. Pick: Over 9.5 (+118)
Texas
Over/under 9.5
Wins: San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston, at Florida, Oklahoma, at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Texas A&M
Losses: at Ohio State, at Georgia
Analysis: Before we discuss Arch Madness, let’s focus on a few issues the Longhorns must address this offseason. Texas breaks in a new offensive line and must replace two of its top three receivers and two stellar defensive tackles. That said, the Longhorns have recruited exceptionally well and hit on some big pickups in the transfer portal, setting Arch Manning up for a big debut season as the full-time starting quarterback.
Many will project Texas’ season based on its performance in the season opener at Ohio State, but we’ll use that as a barometer rather than a judgment call. In fact, we’re picking a loss. The toughest games on the schedule are at Georgia and Florida. We see a path to 10 wins, but barely. Pick: Over 9.5 (-200)
Texas A&M
Over/under 7.5
Wins: UTSA, Utah State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida, at Missouri, Samford
Losses: at Notre Dame, at Arkansas, at LSU, South Carolina, at Texas
Analysis: The Aggies will be a popular dark horse pick to win the SEC, but their schedule paints a much different picture. Trips to Notre Dame, LSU, Texas and Missouri more than make up for dodging Alabama. Mike Elko returns 71% of the team’s production, ranking sixth in the country, and all five starters along the offensive line are back to protect quarterback Marcel Reed.
Again, we understand the hupe, but we can’t ignore their 1-4 finish to last season and the incredibly difficult schedule this fall. Pick: Under 7.5 (+124)
Vanderbilt
Over/under 4.5
Wins: Charleston Southern, Georgia State, Utah State, Kentucky
Losses: at Virginia Tech, at South Carolina, at Alabama, LSU, Missouri, at Texas, Auburn, at Tennessee
Analysis: You want to love Vanderbilt. Quarterback Diego Pavia makes this team must-see TV nearly every week, and with the eighth-most returning production in the country, the Commodores are in position to reach a bowl game for a second straight year.
There’s just one problem: Alabama isn’t coming to town, and neither is Tennessee. The brutal schedule makes it difficult to pick up wins on the road with Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas and Tennessee on the schedule. Pick: Under 4.5 (+134)
Read the full article here
