For the 2021 NFL Draft, 128 underclassmen gave up their remaining eligibility and declared. While 24 were selected in the first round, most made a blind leap to the NFL without much assurance.
Ultimately, 28 went undrafted, including notable names such as wide receiver Sage Surratt, running back Jaret Patterson and safety Ar’Darius Washington. The median underclassman was selected with the No. 106 overall pick in the fourth round — well outside the range for guaranteed contracts or roster spots. At the time, this was a calculated gamble. The draft was the only path to a payday.
Months later, the name, image and likeness era began, allowing players to earn compensation while remaining in college. That move changed the equation for underclassmen looking to enter the draft, with major ripple effects on the later rounds.
Just three years later, only 58 underclassmen entered the draft, 70 fewer than in 2021. Thirty-seven were selected on Day 3 in 2021, compared to just 15 in 2024. Perhaps most strikingly, the number of undrafted underclassmen fell from 28 to five. The median draft position for underclassmen rose to No. 61 in 2024. Nearly two-thirds of underclassmen who declared in 2024 were selected in the first three rounds.
Historically, players have gone to court for the right to enter the draft early. Now, they’re suing for the right to stay in college longer.
Consider quarterback Cam Ward. He initially declared for the draft, but returned to college after receiving an NIL deal from Miami. He went on to finish as a Heisman Trophy finalist and is now the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.
Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson made a similar decision, turning down the draft last season to stay in school. He rushed for 1,000 yards on 7.1 yards per carry and has worked his way into first-round consideration.
In a previous era, both players might have helped round out the later rounds of the draft. Now, they’re pushing for top billing.
Early-Entry Comparison
|
2021 |
128 |
18.8% |
30.5% |
28.9% |
21.9% |
107 |
|
2024 |
58 |
27.6% |
37.9% |
25.9% |
8.6% |
60.5 |
Sixty-nine underclassmen have declared for the 2025 NFL Draft, set to kick off Thursday in Green Bay. It is a modest increase from last year, but the group is similarly headlined by some of the players who will not be there.
Quarterbacks like Miami’s Carson Beck, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State’s Drew Allar are logical omissions. Texas safety Michael Taaffe, Penn State running back Nick Singleton and Oregon wide receiver Evan Stewart were more surprising opt outs. Even players like Washington’s Tacario Davis or Kentucky’s Barion Brown likely enter the draft and see what happens in previous eras. Now, they can transfer, collect a check and improve their stock.
Granted, most of the serious prospects are still entering the draft process. Twelve of the top 13 picks and 23 of the 32 players in CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson’s mock draft are early entrants. The elite talents can make far more money by making it to their second NFL contract. The borderline talents, though, can command bigger salaries in college with limited downside.
There’s still talent to be found late in the NFL Draft. West Virginia’s Beanie Bishop was one of the top undrafted free agents in last year’s class. He went on to make plays for the Steelers as a rookie. Oregon’s Evan Williams went from Day 3 pick to the PFWA All-Rookie Team. However, there’s only been one underclassman in the NIL era picked Round 4 or later to earn Pro Bowl honors: Kyren Williams. There were eight such underclassman Pro Bowlers in the previous four drafts.
Every college football player aspires to ultimately reach the NFL and have lengthy earning potential. But thanks to NIL and the transfer portal, raw talents don’t have to rush and can develop within college football. College football’s gain is the NFL’s loss.
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