The 2025 NBA Finals begin Thursday night, and oddsmakers don’t see it as much of a series.
The Oklahoma City Thunder opened as high as -800 favorites (now down to -700 at BetMGM), with the Indiana Pacers as +525 underdogs. Since 1969, there have been 16 NBA Finals where the series underdog had +250 or worse odds and only the 2004 Detroit Pistons (+500 vs. Los Angeles Lakers) won the series outright, according to Sports Odds History.
Advertisement
The Thunder went 68-14 in the regular season en route to the No. 1 overall seed in the Western Conference and also were a cash cow for bettors, compiling a 55-23-4 mark against the spread — the best ATS mark for any team in the past 35 seasons. Oklahoma has struggled ATS in the postseason, though, going just 7-9 ATS.
The Pacers have been one of the NBA’s best teams since the calendar flipped to Jan. 1 and beat the Milwaukee Bucks as a favorite before defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks as series underdogs to make it to their first Finals since 2000.
Yahoo Sports asked handicappers Michael Fiddle, Jason Logan and Jon Metler for their thoughts on the series and Game 1 best bets:
No. 4 Indiana Pacers (+500) vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (-700)
Fiddle: “It’s hard to find much value betting Oklahoma City in the series or game to game. The market is shading towards Indiana. I’m lucky to have some Thunder futures because it does feel a bit priced out now. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP is a look instead of OKC series betting because his usage rate is so high. Some other players can pop in spots, but his stat set is nearly guaranteed. And he’s the engine all year. It would take a bad SGA performance and a dominant performance from another Thunder player to win — which on the OKC side has a slim chance of happening.
Advertisement
“Throughout the series, Tyrese Haliburton is going to have to be a scorer for the Pacers to have much of a chance. His over points, under assists are looks for me. The Pacers will have to rely on 3-pointers. Oklahoma City makes you take 3s, and Indiana will space and shoot. Props-wise, Myles Turner should have decent volume.
“I like the Game 1 over. My model has it at 231.9 points, though I understand the slight reductions for the NBA Finals. Small market moves [on the] over since open at 229.5, [with] 230.5/231 still showing up, but still a small actionable over for me. These are two of the top three teams in pace, which really drives totals betting. Chet Holmgren was out in both regular season matchups, and he allows OKC to play small and space with five out.”
Advertisement
Best bet: Game 1 over 230.5
Logan: “Dort draws the key assignment of slowing down Haliburton in the NBA Finals. The burly shooting guard will try to get the ball out of Haliburton’s hands and with the Pacers point guard a primary passer, it should put Dort in good position to crash the boards.
“Dort’s advanced stats show 7.6 rebounding chances in the playoffs, with that metric jumping to 8.2 in the conference finals. He averaged 3.6 boards against Minnesota while checking scorer Anthony Edwards and snatched four or more rebounds in three of the four final games of the WCF.
“Player models for Game 1 of the NBA Finals have Dort pegged between 4.1 and 5.2 rebounds versus Indiana. During the two regular season run-ins with the Pacers, Dort recorded five and seven boards in OKC victories.”
Advertisement
Best bet: Lu Dort Over 3.5 rebounds (+110)
Metler: “At first glance, 33.5 points looks like a high number for SGA — especially with the Thunder sitting as 9.5-point favorites in Game 1. But for SGA, this total still feels a touch too low.
“SGA is projected to score over 35 points in Game 1, which implies fair odds closer to -140. That projection looks justified when you consider how the Pacers have fared against elite scoring guards in these playoffs. Despite having capable individual defenders like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, Indiana has generally stayed true to its scheme, avoiding heavy help defense — even when facing players like Jalen Brunson.
“That likely means SGA will see mostly single coverage, which plays to his strength as one of the NBA’s most efficient isolation scorers. If he gets rolling, Indiana isn’t the type of team to completely sell out to stop him.
Advertisement
“There is some risk tied to the 9.5-point spread and potential blowout minutes, but that concern is softened by the context: It’s the NBA Finals, starters are far less likely to get early rest, and the Pacers have proven they can mount comebacks. With multiple days off between games, rotations should be tight and minutes should be heavy for the stars.”
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 33.5 points (-110)
Metler: “It’s impossible to ignore that in two regular-season matchups against the Thunder, Nembhard led the Pacers in potential assists with 15.5 per game, while Haliburton averaged just 11.5. The Thunder are equipped to throw elite defenders at Haliburton and mix up multiple coverages. As a result, the Pacers will need another playmaker to generate offense, and it’s telling that they leaned on Nembhard in that role during the regular season.
Advertisement
“We have a solid edge on this price, even with Nembhard projected to play only 32 minutes. Given that he’ll be tasked with creating offense and likely drawing the primary defensive assignment on SGA, his minutes could very well increase — only strengthening our edge on this prop.”
Best bet: Andrew Nembhard over 4.5 Assists (+122)
Read the full article here
