The Chargers brought Jim Harbaugh back to the NFL ranks after a nine-year tour in the college ranks at Michigan. LA had been plagued by comically poor coaching for years. Even in their best seasons, the Chargers always found a way to melt down. Under the seasoned leadership of Harbaugh, there’s no way they could blow it this time…right?
2024 Los Angeles Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 23.6 (11th)
Total yards per game: 324.2 (20th)
Plays per game: 59.8 (29th)
Dropbacks per game: 37.3 (24th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.13 (13th)
Rush attempts per game: 27.2 (12th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.08 (18th)
Jim Harbaugh rights the ship
Before we get to the Chargers totally blowing it this time, their regular season deserves its flowers. LA began the year as run-heavy as you’d expect with Greg Roman on the headset. They had a -10% pass rate over expected through four games. Justin Herbert averaged a pathetic 23 attempts for 145 yards. That plan quickly fell apart when Gus Edwards got hurt and JK Dobbins started to falter under an increased workload. Following their Week 5 bye, the Chargers leaned on Herbert and breakout star Ladd McConkey with a +2% PROE. Herbert averaged 32 attempts for 250 yards post-bye. The Chargers might have been able to survive the regular season with their run-first approach given how well the defense played. As he tends to do, Harbaugh called a stellar game plan on his side of the ball, leading the defense to a top-five finish in EPA per play allowed. They ranked 24th in EPA per play on defense in 2023. The shift to a pass-oriented style, however, supercharged the team to a 9-4 record out of the bye and a Wild Card date with a lame duck Texans squad.
No amount of good vibes and sound coaching could save the Chargers from Chargering in the postseason. They took on the Texans as the No. 5 seed in the Wild Card Round and proceeded to melt down for the better part of four quarters. Herbert threw four interceptions including one pick-six for good measure. A 31-12 loss was Harbaugh’s reward for turning the Chargers around.
Passing Game
QB: Justin Herbert, Taylor Heinicke
WR: Ladd McConkey, Mike Williams
WR: Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis
WR: Tre Harris, Jalen Reagor
TE: Will Dissly, Tyler Conklin
Playoff implosion aside, the Chargers’ passing attack carried the offense for the bulk of the year. Herbert was nails in the regular season, ranking 11th in EPA per play and third in PFF passing grade. He curbed his mistakes compared to previous campaigns, resulting in a league-best .6 percent interception rate. This would normally coincide with a lower target depth, which has also been the trend around the NFL. Herbert wasn’t reading all that and his aDOT hit a career-high of 9.0. He earned PFF’s fourth-highest Big Time Throw rate was their No. 7 passer on deep shots. For fantasy purposes, the biggest change was an uptick in rushing output. Greg Roman’s offense has always emphasized quarterback rushing. That held true in LA, even with Herbert at under center instead of Lamar Jackson, Roman’s previous starter. Herbert averaged 4.1 attempts for 18 yards per game, both of which were career-highs. The rushing output could help prevent his fantasy output from cratering when the Chargers inevitably revert to a run-first approach.
Herbert’s passing boom coincided with rookie Ladd McConkey’s near superstar breakout. The No. 34 overall pick went for 1,149 yards and seven scores in the regular season. He also torched the Texans in the playoffs with a 9/197/1 line. McConkey was dominant on a per-route basis, averaging 2.6 yards per route run including the playoffs. That ranked fourth in the NFL. Despite his efficiency pushing toward the top of the league, there’s still room for McConkey’s fantasy production to grow. His 24 percent target share ranked just 29th among wideouts. McConkey had the peripherals of a true WR1 but not the role. Given how dominant his rookie season was, we should expect him to take the next step in the target-earning department in 2025.
The biggest beneficiary of the coaching change might have been former first-round pick Quentin Johnston. Johnston entered the league as a flawed route runner who needed to be schemed open. The previous coaching regime couldn’t find ways to make that happen and Johnston flopped in year one. He was a complete failure as a rookie, averaging a pitiful .9 yards per route run and 6.4 yards per target. Roman and Harbaugh got the train back on the tracks and Johnston went from 431 yards to 711 while playing two fewer games. He posted 1.6 YPRR and 7.8 YPT. Johnston also became a go-to option for Herbert in scoring situations. He led the team with 11 red zone targets and 10 looks in the end zone. Johnston cashed in with eight scores in total. He may ultimately top out as a splash play WR3, but Johnston has redeemed himself as a spike week option for Best Ball players.
Mike Williams returned to the team as a veteran presence in the receiver room, but rookie Tre Harris should take the WR3 job over him early in the year. The No. 55 pick was an elite field-stretcher at Ole Miss in 2024. His mark of 5.1 yards per route run is the highest for an FBS receiver in at least the past decade and likely much longer. Harris makes his money on contested looks—a recipe that doesn’t always come together at the NFL level—making him a high-risk bet compared to other rookies. Still, it’s hard to pass on a player who could be Herbert’s No. 2 receiver as a rookie at a WR54 price tag.
Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect much from the tight end room. Will Dissly had a brief stint in the spotlight in the middle of the season when he hit at least eight PPR points five times in six weeks. He eventually got banged up and his role fell by the wayside. The Chargers brought in Tyler Conlkin in free agency and drafted pass-catching tight end Oronde Gadsden, signaling the end of Dissly SZN.
Hampton looks like ‘total package’ with Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman labeled running back Omarion Hampton the “total package” and Kyle Dvorchak dives into why the rookie could be a low-end RB1 in 2025.
Running Game
RB: Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris, Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins
OL (L-R): Rashawn Slater, Bradley Bozeman, Zion Johnson, Mekhi Becton, Joe Alt
The unfortunate truth for the Chargers’ passing attack is that they are, at their core, a ground-based team. They began the 2024 season establishing the run and only pulled away from that approach when their backfield faltered. What did they do this offseason? They went out and signed premier grinder Najee Harris in free agency. They then doubled down on their backfield by drafting UNC’s Omarion Hampton with their first-round pick. Harris will likely get the first crack at the starting job. NFL coaches love nothing more than to default to a veteran back. Can Harris hold off a younger and more explosive back for long? I doubt it. Harris ranked 30th in rush yards over expected per carry and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. The Steelers tried every year to make Najee Harris RB1 a thing, but the advanced metrics all showed a meat and potatoes backup. LA’s setup now looks primed for him to play that role.
Hampton, on the other hand, is anything but boring. He shredded the ACC with 26 carries for 15+ yards last year, the fourth-most in the country. Hampton ranked sixth in the nation in missed tackles forced (73) and trailed only Ashton Jeanty in total yards after contact (1,222). His excellence also extends into the passing game. Hampton posted a 38/373/2 receiving line as a junior and averaged 1.4 YPRR. This is what a 300-touch back looks like. He’s a no-brainer top-five pick in dynasty drafts and should be cruising past his RB15 cost as the fantasy playoffs approach.
Los Angeles Chargers 2025 Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 9.5
Pick: Over (-110)
Sportsbooks generally expect bettors to hammer the overs on win totals. In turn, the number of wins projected by books across the league exceeds what is mathematically possible. Unders are, on the whole, better bets. With that caveat of sound logic made, I’m not betting an under on Jim Harbaugh. He has gone over nine wins in four of five NFL seasons. Harbaugh is such a good coach that he topped 9.5 wins in 7-of-13 college seasons. The majority of those seasons only featured 13 games.
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