The college football regular season, for most teams, is already a quarter of the way complete. How fast time flies. There is still ample time for players to settle into their roles and for key performances to redefine their trajectories, but three games is also enough of a sample size to reveal season-defining strengths or deficiencies. And in the case of Arch Manning, for one, the first quarter of the campaign might be too much to overcome in the quest for the Heisman Trophy.
Steve Sarkisian said that Manning and the Texas offense will benefit in the long term from the adversity they faced in their uninspiring 2-1 start. By the end of the year, they could very well end up at the forefront of the national championship race like most expected. But it is clearly time to adjust expectations for the preseason Heisman favorite.
To be fair to Manning, he is far from the only player whose stock has fallen in the early going. His name value and recruiting background put a bigger spotlight on him, but other top preseason Heisman contenders are similarly stuck in the mud. Look at LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State’s Drew Allar, who are both off to 3-0 starts but have not always looked like the veteran superstars they were billed as coming into the year. And then there’s LaNorris Sellers, who left South Carolina’s Week 2 loss with an injury in a worst-case scenario for his Heisman campaign.
In the Week 4 Heisman Trophy outlook, we recalibrate expectations for Manning and other preseason frontrunners whose odds to win the award sank through three games.
Heisman Trophy odds entering Week 4
- QB Carson Beck, Miami (+750)
- QB John Mateer, Oklahoma (+950)
- QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1200)
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+1200)
- QB Dante Moore, Oregon (+1300)
- QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (+1400)
- QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State (+1700)
- QB Devon Dampier, Utah (+1700)
- QB Joey Aguilar, Tennessee (+1700)
- QB Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (+2000)
- QB Jackson Arnold (+2200)
- QB Ty Simpson, Alabama (+2200)
- QB Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (+2500)
- QB Drew Allar, Penn State (+2500)
Stock up: Marcel Reed delivers in the clutch, Joey Aguilar shines in defeat
Marcel Reed was the definition of boom or bust in Texas A&M’s thrilling win at Notre Dame. It took just 17 completions for Reed to amass 360 yards and two touchdowns on a defense that, while clearly not as stout as last year’s unit, is still one of college football’s most talented groups. He also led the game-winning drive, perfectly executing the two-minute offense and delivering a decisive 11-yard touchdown pass to Nate Boerkircher. That’s all great — as long as you ignore his measly 45.9% completion rate and the interception he threw to Leonard Moore.
Obviously, Reed has to be more accurate in SEC play for the Aggies to have a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. The complete product through three nonconference games is quite impressive, though. The first-year full-time starter has a strong nine touchdowns to one interception and is a dual-threat weapon with 142 yards and another score on the ground.
The full three-week package and the clutch effort against the Fighting Irish warranted the spike from +2500 to +1400 in Reed’s Heisman odds.
Elsewhere in the SEC is a surprise riser in Joey Aguilar. Losses are generally ill-advised for Heisman contenders considering the hefty team success element in the award’s equation, but Tennessee’s gut-wrenching loss to Georgia did nothing to prevent Aguilar’s surge into the top 10 on the odds board.
Some performances transcend the final score, and five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) and 371 yards through the air against the vaunted Bulldog defense will do just that. Even if they come with a pair of interceptions.
Stock down: Preseason favorites falling short of expectations
The Manning era is not going according to plan. The expectations were always probably unfair for a player who had just two career starts under his belt entering the year and who faces more pressure than just about anyone in recent college football history. But did anyone really think things could look this rough? Manning got the benefit of the doubt after the Ohio State game because, well, it’s Ohio State. But San Jose State? UTEP? Far less defensible.
Manning’s Heisman odds are down from +1300 to +4000. Barring a remarkable turnaround, his chances of living up to the hype this year are kaput. That’s okay, because development takes time. If he is in prime form come playoff time, great. If it takes until next year, also great. It is just a reminder to not go overboard with preseason expectations.
Speaking of which, South Carolina has not looked one bit like the playoff team most expected it to be, and that is no good for Sellers. His uncertain status for Week 4 after being knocked out of the Gamecocks’ loss to Vanderbilt is also less than ideal. The market is putting the “sell” in Sellers with his Heisman odds falling into the abyss at +10000.
The preseason hype was more warranted for Nussmeier and Allar, however. They are two of the most veteran quarterbacks in the Power Four and offered glimpses last year into their potential stardom. Neither has done much wrong thus far in 2025; they just have not taken the step they were supposed to. Their offenses have been uninspiring as wholes, creating questions about Penn State’s and LSU’s abilities to separate from the rest of the pack as national championship contenders. In turn, others are passing them by in the early Heisman race.
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Week 4 performances to watch
The first major bye week of the season is here, placing a number of contenders on the sideline. Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama are among the top teams taking this week off. The spotlight moves a touch further down the top 25 rankings, where the teens and 20s offer some tantalizing matchups.
John Mateer vs. Jackson Arnold
Ah, the storylines. Jackson Arnold against his former team with a shot at revenge after last year’s benching. His replacement, John Mateer, with a shot at achieving the things he could not. Both with +2200 odds or better to win the Heisman. Take a bow, script writers.
Carson Beck vs. Florida
Beck quietly jumped into the betting favorite position after Miami’s win over South Florida. Through three games, he looks like the Beck of old, leading the nation in completion rate at 79.3% and pacing the ACC in a number of efficiency metrics. He has already been tested, too, having admirably handled the Notre Dame defense. Beck has a chance to put a longtime rival further in the dirt this week against Florida.
Devon Dampier vs. No. 17 Texas Tech
One of the biggest games of the entire Big 12 season features a terrific quarterback showdown between Devon Dampier and Behren Morton. If Dampier leads Utah to its biggest win of the young season, not only will the Utes be at the front of the conference race, but the dual-threat standout will pick up a ranked win — valuable Heisman currency.
Luke Altmyer vs. Fernando Mendoza
Neither Luke Altmyer nor Fernando Mendoza are at the front of the race, but give it time; the winner of this top-25 clash has a good chance of surging up the board. Nobody had Kurtis Rourke on their Heisman radar early in the 2024 season, but the former Indiana quarterback finished ninth in the voting. His successor and Altmyer both have a chance to follow his path and emerge as a dark-horse candidate.
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