First base used to be one of the fun zones of fantasy baseball, a wonderland. Things are not trending in the right direction.
Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman and José Abreu are all first basemen with MVPs this decade, but 2024 was not kind to any of them. Goldy and Freeman are coming off disappointing years, and Abreu’s career is probably over. It’s no fun when stars hit the decline seasons.
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It’s not just a problem with the veterans. Younger targets like Spencer Steer and Triston Casas are coming off middling seasons. Christian Encarnacion-Strand was hurt most of 2024. Spencer Torkelson forgot how to play baseball and was demoted to Triple-A, deservedly.
Maybe this is the best way to frame last year’s disappointing haul of the top 26 first basemen drafted in Yahoo leagues last year — 18 of them have cheaper ADPs this season. In other words, they’re coming off disappointing seasons — so the draft price has adjusted.
To be fair, first base isn’t the only infield position of concern. Third base appears a little deeper, but it’s a narrow difference. I know the easiest way to make the fantasy gods laugh is to make a plan, but here’s a blueprint for how I’ll attack first base this year.
Proactive Targets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (Yahoo ADP: 13.4)
His takeoff hasn’t been linear through six seasons, but let’s respect that Kid Guerrero just had the second-best year of his career, with a juicy 165 OPS+ and positive impact in four categories. He’s stepping into his age-26 season, which often coincides with peak performance. So long as you accept the 48 home runs from 2021 as an unrepeatable outlier, Guerrero feels like an easy player to project, a high-floor candidate with plenty of plausible upside. He’s also been notably durable for five years, missing just 12 games over that period.
Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals (Yahoo ADP: 116.8)
Pasquantino’s 2024 rates look similar to the previous year, though he did nudge his average and slugging percentage forward. He’s always had plus contact rates and, had he not gotten injured in September, he would have sailed past 100 RBI. He’ll probably be positive in three of the five categories, and the Royals offense is on the upswing. Pasquantino looks like a boring value pick at his current draft price.
Jake Burger, Rangers (Yahoo ADP: 123.8)
Burger is probably a better fantasy player than a real-life guy, as last year’s 103 OPS+ is slightly above the league mean. But the lineup swap from Miami to Texas is a significant one, he also qualifies at third base and he’s a solid power source with an expected average that shouldn’t hurt you. With an ADP outside the top 120, Burger has settled into a boring but efficient fantasy pick.
Alec Bohm, Phillies (Yahoo ADP: 147.6)
We’re borrowing another dual-eligible guy because the first base pool could use the help. Bohm’s contact rate gets better every year and, parked in the middle of the Philadelphia lineup, he should drive in around 100 runs. His slugging percentage was a career-best last year and his career average is .277 — batting average isn’t a sexy category, but it’s something you need to be mindful of while roster building. Bohm makes sense as an age-28 target.
Possible Fades
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (Yahoo ADP: 16.5)
This one hurts, because I’ve been an enormous Freeman fan his entire career. And his disappointing 2024 regular season (no one forgets the World Series heroics) came as an excused absence — he had ankle and thumb injuries, along with a cruel off-field distraction (his young son is dealing with Guillian-Barre syndrome). The Los Angeles lineup offers plenty of buoyancy, but Freeman steps into his age-35 season, so last year’s power and average drops could be seen as expected skill erosion. Player development isn’t always linear in the front half of a career, but skill leakage has a more reliable trend line.
Pete Alonso, Free Agent (Yahoo ADP: 42.7)
The free-agent market has been cool to the Polar Bear, and he could be at the crossroads of his career. He’s merely batted .229 (with a .324 OBP) over the last two years, he obviously won’t run much and it’s likely the last few months of uncertainty have offered some unwelcome stress. Alonso’s best landing spot might be a return with the Mets, given the depth of that lineup, but it’s not clear how interested New York is in that transaction. Otherwise, Alonso would fall into the category of free-agent-changing-teams-on-a-big contract, and those types of players are generally poor investments in the first season.
Luis Arráez, Padres (Yahoo ADP: 140.8)
I’m nostalgic for a time when batting titles were a big thing — and hey, Arráez has bagged three in a row. But he’s a low-power and speed source, and even his runs-scored column has been ordinary despite all the hits (part of the problem is he doesn’t walk much). While it’s refreshing to see Arráez put the ball in play regularly — amidst a world where strikeouts are common, almost shrugged off — he’s more fun to root for as a throwback than he is to draft as a fantasy target.
Value/Sleeper Targets
Isaac Paredes, Astros (Yahoo ADP: 184)
The key is for the Houston roster to remain static into Spring Training — I want to know Paredes has a full-time gig and is batting around Jose Altuve and Yordan Álvarez, the sweet spot of the Houston lineup. Paredes’ Tampa Bay production last year wasn’t that dissimilar to what he did in 2023, but he seemed to lose his way after the move to Chicago. He’s still just entering his age-26 season and is well-priced for profit.
Michael Toglia, Rockies (Yahoo ADP: 225.8)
The .218 average scares you initially — especially for someone who plays in Colorado — but some bad luck was at play; his expected batting average was a more acceptable .244. Toglia socked 25 home runs and swiped 10 bases in about 70% of the season, and he also qualifies in the outfield. We can work with this.
Top-15 1B-eligible draft rankings
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1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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2. Bryce Harper
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3. Matt Olson (odd-numbered years agree with him)
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4. Freddie Freeman
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5. Christian Walker (boring value vet, though it’s an age-34 season)
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6. Pete Alonso
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7. Josh Naylor
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8. Cody Bellinger (park should really help)
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9. Salvador Pérez (but use him at catcher, please)
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10. Yainer Díaz (but use him at catcher, please)
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11. Spencer Steer
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12. Vinnie Pasquantino
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13. Jake Burger
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14. Triston Casas
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15. Alec Bohm
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