What do you get the team that has it all? How about a devastating playoff loss and, for the first time in years, a little instability to deal with?
The Lions sputtered out against the Commanders in the playoffs, allowing 45 points between a hail of defensive injuries and Washington fourth-down conversions. They return most everybody of fantasy football relevance, but they’re light two major figures. Former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is now Bears head coach Ben Johnson, leaving the Lions to bring in ex-Jets OC John Morton. And long-time center Frank Ragnow abruptly retired after the draft, leaving the Lions to have to replace him with Georgia interior lineman Tate Ratledge or, perhaps, Graham Glasgow. The Lions still have Penei Sewell, but this is the weakest interior line they’ve had on paper since Dan Campbell’s first season.
Detroit Lions 2024 Stats (RANK)
Points per game: 33.2 (1st)
Total yards per game: 409.5 (2nd)
Plays per game: 65.8 (1st)
Dropbacks per game: 36.4 (28th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.27 (3rd)
Rush attempts per game: 31.4 (3rd)
Rush EPA per play: 0.02 (5th)
The snapshare RB1
Most running backs that you want in fantasy football are the running backs that play the most. It is an obvious statement, and also a statement that is hard to refute. Saquon Barkley played 69.23 percent of the Eagles snaps last year. Bijan Robinson played 75.33 percent of the Falcons snaps last year. Derrick Henry played just 57.3 percent of the snaps, but is a historical outlier as a star fantasy back who usually skips third downs. Other backs who are in the opening three rounds of discussion: Kyren Williams at 81.4 percent, De’Von Achane at 61.8 percent, Christian McCaffrey at 76.17 percent (in 2023), Josh Jacobs at 62.5 percent, and Jonathan Taylor at 65.04 percent.
Then there is Bucky Irving at 45.1 percent — a back who slowly took more of the load as the season went on and is being projected with an increase. And, finally, there is Jahmyr Gibbs at 55.7 percent. Gibbs ran for 1412 yards and 16 touchdowns. He also played just 52.4 percent of the snaps until David Montgomery got hurt against the Bills in Week 15.
And yet, the market usually puts Gibbs off the board in the first five or six picks of re-draft leagues this year. I do think there is a little danger in that projection, and it strikes me as the same thing that happened last year when Gibbs got elevated into the back half of the first round. I’d love to say that this was punished but … Gibbs finished as the No. 1 running back in the NFL in PPR formats.
A year later we’re entering, outside of some offensive line decline, essentially the same situation. Montgomery (no slouch in finishing 35th in PPR leagues himself) is back and ready to command a huge chunk of the backfield time. None of the Lions coaches have promised Gibbs more playing time.
When you watch Gibbs play, it makes sense that he’s intuitively one of the best backs in the NFL. Like there’s no eye test question marks about this. The question is just: Is he going to actually grow his snap share? Or is he going to have to continue defying everything (and scoring 20 touchdowns) to return value on his draft position? I love outliers. I’m not telling you Gibbs can’t do it. But I do think it’s worth pointing out that the floor path in his range of outcomes isn’t all roses, especially if the decline of the offensive line hurts the Lions’ run game.
And I also think it’s worth pointing out that if Gibbs is handed 65 percent of the snaps, he’s going to be the No. 1 fantasy running back in the NFL in many of those cases.
Passing game
QB: Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond
WR: Jameson Williams, Tom Kennedy
WR: Tim Patrick, Isaac TeSlaa
TE: Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright
Four known fantasy players and Tim Patrick. We don’t need to go deep into the target tree to discern much here.
Jared Goff finished as the QB6 on points last year, though that ranking is a little bit of an overestimation of him as he finished 33 points behind QB5 Jayden Daniels and closer to QB10 Kyler Murray than Daniels. There is nothing that screams “not exciting” quite like penciling in Goff as your No. 1 quarterback. (OK, OK, maybe Brock Purdy as your No. 1 quarterback.) You get to dream of major ceiling outcomes with Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert. You get to think of Murray’s running or what Bo Nix can grow into in a better offense. With Goff you just hope he can keep being what he’s shown he is for the last three seasons.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had a cleanup surgery in his knee this offseason after being injured returning punts against the Colts in Week 12. Over the final five weeks of the fantasy season he caught 38 balls for 439 yards and three scores. Which, amazingly, actually is a downgrade from where he was early in the season since he caught a touchdown in every game from Week 3 to Week 10. If we’d seen more of a decline in St. Brown’s play, maybe there’d be a reason to consider how much this knee surgery should factor into his fantasy value in 2025. He’ll be fine.
This offseason has felt like a coming out party for Jameson Williams’ internal praise. Campbell has praised his added strength, Morton has been said to want to throw the ball downfield more and said this would be a “breakout year” for Williams. That is music to our ears, and I do think there is a certain amount of sense to it. The 2017 Jets — the only other team that Morton has coordinated — turned out amazing seasons from Jermaine Kearse and Robbie Chosen by pumping up their downfield passing numbers. It’s also possible that with the Lions not really entertaining a long-term contract offer for Williams this offseason and him entering his fifth-year option season in 2026, they are trying to pump up his trade value by feeding him the ball more. Either way, things are on the up for Williams and I see plenty of avenues for him to outperform his 45-60 ADP range.
Am I more concerned about outlier production for Sam LaPorta than I am for the other two main receivers in this passing game? I am. Does that mean we need to pretend he didn’t finish sixth in tight end scoring last year despite a 12/147/0 first month? Not really. I’m pretty confident LaPorta is going to be a fantasy TE1 this year no matter what happens around him. I can’t fully rule out a return to the 2023 season, but I do think he’s going to be the No. 3 option in this offense as things are currently constituted.
Patrick rebounded from a torn ACL and torn Achilles that caused him to miss the last two NFL seasons with a 33/394/3 line on 59 percent of the snaps. I’m not expecting much from him as a fantasy option barring injuries above him on the depth chart, and even then he’d probably be more of a matchup play. Feels great that he was able to make it back on to the field, though.
There’s a backup quarterback battle of sorts brewing between Hooker and Kyle Allen, which I read as immense shade from the current staff on how Hooker is developing behind the scenes. The Lions traded up for the speedster TeSlaa, giving up a pair of third-round picks to do so. I see that as a potential hedge for Williams next season, but I can’t deny that his speed and offense will make him an intriguing waiver wire flyer if he emerges sooner than I expect. Raymond has a bushel of fantasy-interesting games over his four years with the Lions and would probably be the first man up at wideout. Brock Wright exists to make you, and only you, upset when he vultures a touchdown. He’ll be a Chief in two years and continue to do the same thing.
Lions at +200 to miss playoffs is ‘a value bet’
Drew Dinsick dives into the betting market for the Lions’ playoff odds, explaining why a regression could be coming after Detroit lost both coordinators in the offseason.
Running Game
RB: Gibbs, Montgomery, Sione Vaki/Craig Reynolds
OL (L-R): Taylor Decker, Christian Mahogany, Tate Ratledge, Graham Glasgow, Penei Sewell
Montgomery managing the stats he did in 2024 is kind of wild when you consider how he didn’t really have an explosive play. His yards per touch climbed from 4.8 to 5.0, but his longest run of the season went just 21 yards. Montgomery’s season was 185 carries of pure between-the-tackles hell, pushing to landmarks and breaking tackles, something that has left Denny Carter crying in the corner. Or would if he had watched any of it. Nevertheless.
Vaki barely played in his rookie season, rushing just six times, but the biggest leap you get from a player often comes after their first year. There’s a chance that he can step in ahead of Craig Reynolds this year. Reynolds has been Montgomery-lite for this team for four years and is an identifying part of this offense for his effort and power.
The offensive line is where I get a little worried, as I explained earlier. Ragnow retired, Kevin Zeitler walked in free agency, and they were already trying to turn left guard over to Christian Mahogany. Ratledge is a rookie — rookies often fare poorly. Glasgow played poorly last year — notching a 57.2 PFF grade — and is now on the spot in his age-33 season. The Lions saw what Kayode Awosika provided last year and immediately drafted both Ratledge and fifth-rounder Miles Frazier. Trystan Colon is a journeyman.
That’s not to say this is doom and/or gloom coming. The Lions have plenty of beef and I would trust them to replace on the interior because they’ve done it before. But I think it’s at least in the range of outcomes that they’re not as good running the ball next year and have to turn to a more pass-heavy offense.
Detroit Lions 2025 win total
+100 or +105 are the two lines I’m seeing for the Lions to go over 10.5 wins. It’s a line that seems to bake a lot of regression into their two coordinator losses, especially considering they won 15 games last year and 12 the year before.
I lean towards that being a good bet. The Vikings could be amazing or woeful depending on what J.J. McCarthy is, and the Packers didn’t exactly load up for bear in the NFC North either. The Bears had the best offseason but I’m not 100 percent sold on Caleb Williams heading into his second year — open to being wrong on that, but what we saw last year had a lot of flaws and I think his development will not be instantaneous.
Like picking Goff in fantasy, betting Lions over 10.5 feels a little boring. But they definitely feel like one of the safer bets on the board this year.
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