2024 Denver Broncos Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 25 (10th)
Total yards per game: 324.5 (19th)
Plays per game: 62 (17th)
Dropbacks per game: 37.7 (11th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.061 (17th)
Rush attempts per game: 27.1 (13th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.075 (17th)
Can Sean Payton Build a More Efficient Machine?
Denver’s offense in 2024 was, in many standard ways, a pleasant surprise. With an aged rookie under center, the Broncos outscored all but nine offenses thanks to a (likely) unsustainable touchdown rate. A slightly closer look reveals an offense that landed on the right side of variance — or luck, if you prefer — considering Bo Nix and company were in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play, net yards per play, first downs, and expected offensive points. On the spreadsheets, the 2024 Broncos looked more like the Jaguars and Jets than they did the Ravens and Lions.
Denver’s efficiency problem was largely related to two factors: A backfield headed by two of the worst running backs in the NFL, and Nix’s dinking and dunking to pass catchers who — outside of Marvin Mims — did not do much with their after the catch opportunities. Some key offseason additions and a full season under Nix’s proverbial belt — following five seasons in major college football — might be just the thing to unlock a little more efficiency for Sean Payton’s offense in 2025. It will, of course, require a step forward for Nix.
Passing Game
QB: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham
WR: Cortland Sutton, Trent Sherfield
WR: Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin
WR: Pat Bryant, DeVaughn Vele
TE: Evan Engram, Adam Trautman
A mere 35 percent of Nix’s passing attempts last season gained more than ten yards. That’s a low mark. Only Deshaun Watson and Mac Jones had lower rates of 10 yard gains. Nix’s short-area throws were not of the production variety: His 6.1 yards per attempt on passes between 1-10 yards ranked 33rd out of 40 qualifying QBs in 2024, below the likes of Mason Rudolph and Will Levis.
Nix’s inefficiency was seen most prevalently on critical early downs. He ranked 29th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per throw on first and second downs in 2024. It’s something of a red flag in an otherwise solid rookie campaign.
Nix’s rushing buoyed his drop back efficiency, and there’s little reason to think that will change in 2025. He averaged about a half fantasy point per drop back as a rookie, in line with Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy, mostly because he finished fifth among all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (96) and eighth in rushing yards (473). Nix’s 19 rushes of more than ten yards were tied with Murray and Josh Allen. His scrambling willingness and ability are keys to his fantasy viability. With a little more aggressive passing and continued rushing, Nix certainly can end the season as a top-12 quarterback.
Nix in 2024 had eyes for only one guy: Courtland Sutton, who took in a stunning 44 percent of the Broncos’ air yards along with 25 percent of the team’s targets. No other Denver wideout had more than 55 targets last year. Sutton dominated looks unlike (almost) any other receiver in the league. Sutton, entering his age-30 season, could see some TD regression in 2025 after six of his 20 red zone targets went for touchdowns in 2024. Still, there aren’t a lot of reasons to think his WR1 role will change dramatically unless Mims and rookie WR Pat Bryant emerge as viable targets for Nix.
And that could certainly come to pass after Mims showed his electric play making skills in the 2024 season’s final five weeks. That Mims was targeted on a healthy 29 percent of his routes last season suggests one or two things about his place in the Denver offense: He gets open and commands looks, or the team is committed to scheming up short area plays for Mims the YAC machine. Last year it appeared Payton and the Broncos had finally found effective ways to use the undersized Mims: After averaging less than one yard per route as a boundary wideout, Mims posted a 5.5 yards per route from the slot and the backfield in 2024, per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. A more consistent role in 2025 — and more slot usage — could make Mims an interesting, if high-variance, fantasy option in 12 and 14-team leagues.
Bryant, taken in the third round of the 2025 draft, could complement Sutton as the Broncos’ other outside receiver in 2025. Averaging 18.3 yards per reception in his final collegiate season at Illinois, Bryant was inside the nation’s top 20 receivers in yards per route. He’s proven to be an efficient pass catcher, if nothing else. Bryant got what might be the ultimate Sean Payton compliment in April when the head coach said Bryant “has a lot of traits that Mike [Thomas] had, especially at the line of scrimmage.” That’s something to file away for folks who play in deeper fantasy formats.
This is where I tell you Vele was third among all receivers in EPA per target in 2024. I don’t know how, honestly, but it’s verifiably true. Maybe he maintains some sort of role in the Denver offense this season after such an efficient showing last season.
After the Broncos in 2024 basically did not use the tight end position for receiving purposes, they signed Evan Engram to a two-year deal worth $23 million and Payton raved about the multitude of ways the team would deploy Engram in 2025.
Engram is nothing if not a PPR slot machine. Travis Kelce and Trey McBride are the only tight ends with more receptions than Engram — who operates as a big slot receiver — over the past two seasons. He was on his way to another solid fantasy season in 2024 before he tore his labrum in Week 14 and missed the remainder of the year. Engram last year was targeted on a healthy 27 percent of his pass routes in the Jaguars offense, the fourth highest rate among all tight ends.
Engram, who will have no competition for tight end routes or targets, could instantly become Denver’s No. 2 pass catching option behind Sutton. A checkdown artist like Nix could find a reliable, big bodied target like Engram positively irresistible in the middle of the field.
Running Game
RB: RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime
OL (L-R): Garett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz, Mike McGlinchey
The Broncos enter 2025 with a desperately needed backfield revamp. The team parted ways with Javonte Williams — now with the Cowboys — and used a second-round draft pick on RJ Harvey before signing veteran journeyman JK Dobbins in June. Jaleel McLaughlin and especially Audric Estime are no afterthoughts in the Broncos backfield after their dismal showings in 2024.
Denver beat writers have said the team wants to use Dobbins as a third down back. That might not mean what we think it means, as Rotoworld analyst and my favorite zoomer Kyle Dvorchyk pointed out on a recent Rotoworld Football Show. It wouldn’t make much sense for Dobbins — one of the least efficient pass-catching RBs in football last year — to function as Denver’s primary backfield pass catcher. Harvey still appears to be the best fit for that role — a crucial role in the Payton offense. Only three teams targeted running backs more often than the Broncos in 2024, and Payton’s Saints offenses churned out generational PPR running backs like Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara. Harvey could be next.
The former UCF Knight caught a meager 61 passes over his final three collegiate seasons, but averaged an explosive 11.8 yards per catch while scoring four touchdowns. Boasting a 4.40 40-yard dash time and a solid 8.94 relative athletic score, Harvey has athleticism to spare and should be — by far — the team’s most explosive backfield option. If Javonte Williams can rack up the NFL’s fifth most running back targets in Payton’s offensive system, Harvey certainly can.
Then there’s this: Broncos coaches and front office officials identified Harvey as a prime target early in the draft process. Payton and general manager George Paton said they were concerned when Harvey gained steam among draft evaluators in the final weeks before the draft. They told reporters in June that they did not hold a pre-draft workout with Harvey for fear of tipping their hand. Harvey’s explosiveness at UCF — he led college football in rushes of more than ten yards in 2024 — impressed Denver evaluators.
“This was kind of our pet cat throughout the process,” Paton said. “His running style — we feel he’s dynamic. He has really good vision, really good instincts, really good contact balance. Highly explosive. We thought maybe he had the best vision in the draft.”
Whoever gets the lead back role in Denver will run behind a suspect offensive line that last season ranked 21st in rush yards created before contact and 14th in rushing success rate. That could, of course, be related to the total lack of explosiveness among members of the Broncos backfield in 2024.
Dobbin’s addition to the Denver roster, if nothing else, will suppress Harvey’s ADP throughout the summer. Without Dobbins, Harvey had a shot to be drafted among the first 10 or 12 running backs. Now you might be able to snatch him as the RB20-25. I’m taking that discount every time.
Dobbins would seem to be the favorite to lead the Broncos backfield should Harvey miss time in 2025. It makes him a fine late-round pick for Zero RB drafters.
2025 Denver Broncos Win Total
DraftKings over/under: 9.5
Pick: Under
I don’t think Payton’s team will go under by much — maybe only half a game — but the likelihood that Nix and the Broncos offense can run as hot in touchdown scoring as they did in 2024 would seem to be low. A Broncos defense that allowed the league’s lowest EPA per play and second lowest success rate could end up making this pick look silly. A dominant defense can mask offensive inefficiency.
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