Oregon has officially punched its ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game on Dec. 7 at 8 p.m. ET on CBS. After two days of deliberation, the conference concluded the Ducks’ 11-0 record (8-0 in Big Ten play) left no possible tiebreaker scenario where the program is left out of the league title game. Oregon’s opponent is still to be determined, with Penn State, Indiana and Ohio State all alive in the conference title game picture.
Ten scenarios possible scenarios remain based on the final two weeks of regular season play. Oregon would earn the No. 1 seed in five of them.
Ohio State lost to Oregon earlier this season on the road 32-31 but still has a clear path to reach the Big Ten title game and the CFP. The Buckeyes would be in the title game in four different scenarios laid out by the conference. Still, if Ohio State beats Indiana and loses to Michigan, the tiebreaker could come down to the winning percentage of conference opponents between Indiana and Penn State, which will be up in the air until the season ends.
Before we dive into how each of the final three teams in contention could reach the Big Ten title game, here’s a rundown of how ties will be settled with two weeks remaining in the regular season.
1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
6.The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the commissioner or designee.
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How Ohio State gets in
Wins: Michigan State (2-5), Iowa (4-3), Nebraska (2-5), Penn State (6-1), Purdue (0-7), Northwestern (2-5)
Loss: Oregon (8-0)
Remaining: Indiana (7-0), Michigan (3-4)
Ohio State’s path to the Big Ten title game is simple. If the Buckeyes win their remaining two games against Indiana and Michigan, they are in. In that scenario, the Buckeyes would get their chance to avenge their only loss on the season (Oregon) and earn an automatic bid (and a bye) in the CFP.
Ohio State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Penn State, but a loss to Indiana this weekend would derail its conference title game hopes.
How Indiana gets in
Wins: UCLA (3-5), Maryland (1-6), Northwestern (2-5), Nebraska (2-5), Washington (4-4), Michigan State (2-5), Michigan (3-4)
Remaining: Ohio State (6-1), Purdue (0-7)
Similar to Ohio State, Indiana’s path to the Big Ten Championship Game is simple. If the Hoosiers win their final two games against Ohio State and Purdue, it will be Indiana against Oregon for the conference title. Indiana could still get into the Big Ten title game with a loss to Ohio State, but it would then need Michigan to upset the Buckeyes in the final week of the season.
If Indiana beats the Buckeyes and loses to Purdue, it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Penn State due to a win against a common opponent (Ohio State). There also is a scenario where Indiana, Oregon and Penn State all finish with an 8-1 record in conference play. If that happens, Indiana would play Oregon.
How Penn State gets in
Wins: Illinois (4-3), UCLA (3-5), USC (3-5), Wisconsin (3-4), Washington (4-4), Purdue (0-7)
Loss: Ohio State (6-1)
Remaining: Minnesota (4-3), Maryland (1-6)
Penn State’s path to the Big Ten title game is a little more tricky. The Nittany Lions need to win their final two games against Minnesota and Maryland and get some help. If Indiana and Penn State both finish 8-1 (and Indiana’s loss is to Ohio State) The No. 2 seed will be determined by the highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents at the end of the season.
Penn State would also get into the Big Ten title game if Indiana loses its final two contests against Ohio State and Purdue and Ohio State falls to Michigan. In that scenario, Penn State would finish in second place outright with an 8-1 record in conference play.
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