The second round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup has come to an end, leaving a scenario of pure math and anticipation for the close of the group stage.
So far, only seven teams have punched their tickets to the Round of 32, while five others have already said goodbye to the tournament.
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There are 25 spots still up for grabs.
Below, OneFootball breaks down what each team needs in the third and decisive round!
Group-by-Group Scenario
Group A
Mexico is on top and already qualified. The second spot is being contested by three teams: South Korea only needs a draw.
Meanwhile, South Africa and the Czech Republic must win their matches to keep dreaming of a direct spot or qualification as one of the best third-placed teams.
Group B
The group winner will come from the direct clash between Canada and Switzerland.
The loser will likely finish second, since Bosnia and Qatar have a very poor goal difference and will face each other in what is effectively a battle for a place among the best third-placed teams.
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Group C (Brazil’s Group)
Brazil and Morocco are on top and are the big favorites for the top two spots, but Scotland can still pull off a surprise if they beat Brazil and count on Morocco slipping up against bottom-placed Haiti.
If Brazil and Morocco both win, first place will be decided on goal difference (Brazil currently has +3 to Morocco’s +1).
Group D
Hosts the United States are guaranteed first place. The second spot will be decided in a head-to-head clash between Australia and Paraguay.
Whoever wins goes through; a draw could even qualify both, with one advancing through the best third-placed ranking. Turkey is eliminated.
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Group E
Germany are the clear leaders and already qualified. Ivory Coast are playing for a draw against Curaçao to secure second place.
Ecuador and Curaçao need wins plus an Ivorian slip-up to snatch second place, but both are still in the race for the third-placed spots.
Group F
The Netherlands and Japan are level in every way, even on goal difference.
The Netherlands have the edge because they face eliminated Tunisia, while Japan take on Sweden. If the Swedes win, they could even snatch first or second place.
A draw guarantees Sweden a chance to advance as a third-placed team.
Group G
The most tightly packed group in the World Cup. Egypt depend only on themselves: if they beat Iran, they finish top.
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Iran also secure qualification with a win, but they need to overcome Belgium’s goal difference to finish first.
Belgium, meanwhile, need to win to avoid relying on the third-placed ranking. New Zealand only stay alive with a win. Anything can happen here.
Group H
Spain are playing for a draw to confirm first place, protected by a comfortable goal difference.
Uruguay are in danger: they must win to avoid being overtaken by the winner of the clash between Cape Verde and eliminated Saudi Arabia.
Group I
A crystal-clear scenario: France and Norway are qualified with perfect records and will battle for first place head-to-head (the French have the draw advantage thanks to goal difference).
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At the bottom of the group, Senegal and Iraq, both pointless, face off in a “do-or-die” match to try to grab a spot as one of the best third-placed teams.
Group J
Argentina are already qualified in first place, and Jordan are eliminated. The clash between Austria and Algeria will decide who takes the second direct qualification spot.
Austria, with the better goal difference, are playing for a draw — a result that could ultimately qualify both teams.
Group K
Colombia are through and only need a draw against Portugal to secure first place.
Portugal, meanwhile, desperately need to win.
DR Congo, for their part, need to beat bottom-placed Uzbekistan to stay in the fight for a playoff spot among the third-placed teams.
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Group L
England are top and can even draw with eliminated Panama to qualify.
The heated battle is in the match between Croatia and Ghana: the winner goes through directly; a draw favors Ghana.
The loser will have to pray for the best third-placed teams calculator.
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.
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