Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends, and stats

Christmas came early for the Cleveland Guardians and their fans Thursday night as they rallied late to knock off the New York Yankees, and in the process climb back into the ALCS. New York now leads the series 2 games to 1.

David Fry went deep in the 10^th inning launching a 2-run shot off Clay Holmes to earn the win for Cleveland, but that was simply one of a handful of big-time ABs and momentum swings late in the game. An inning earlier, Johnkensy Noel, known as Big Christmas, blasted a no doubt about it 2-run home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9^th inning off Luke Weaver to tie the game at 5. This coming after Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase served up back-to-back home runs to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the 8^th inning to give the Yankees the lead.

It sets up Game 4 Friday night as a pivotal game in the series as Cleveland looks to pull even while the Yankees look to all but end the Guardians’ season. Luis Gil makes his 1^st start of the postseason for New York. He will be opposed by Gavin Williams.

Lets dive a little deeper into Game 3 and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first-pitch, projected pitching matchup, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Yankees @ Guardians – Game 4

● Date: Thursday, October 18, 2024
● Time: 8:08 PM ET
● Site: Progressive Field
● City: Cleveland, OH
● TV/Streaming: TBS, TruTV, MAX

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ALCS Game 4 odds for Yankees @ Guardians

The latest odds as of Friday morning:

● Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians (+105), New York Yankees (-125)
● Spread: Guardians +1.5 (-165), Yankees -1.5 (+135)
● Total: 8

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Probable starting pitchers for New York @ Cleveland

● Friday’s pitching matchup (October 18): Luis Gil vs. Gavin Williams

○ Guardians: Williams – the right-hander has not appeared in a game since September 22. Was 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA during the regular season allowing 72 hits and 41 earned runs while striking out 79 over the course of 76 innings.

○ Yankees: Gil – the right-hander has not pitched since September 28. Was 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA during the regular season allowing 104 hits and 59 earned runs while striking out 171 over the course of 151.2 innings.

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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of ALCS Game 4: Yankees @ Guardians

• All 3 ALCS games have gone OVER the Total.

• The Yankees are 3-4 ATS in the postseason.

• The Yankees have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against the Guardians

• The Guardians are 3-5 ATS and 5-3 to the OVER this postseason.

• Noel’s HR was his first since August 30^th.

• Judge has now homered in 3 of his last 5 games at Progressive Field.

• New York and Cleveland have met in the playoffs 6 times: 1997, 1998, 2007, 2017, 2020, and 2022. The Yankees 4 of the 6 series including the most recent series – the 2022 ALDS 3 games to 2. Overall, the Yankees are 16-12 against Cleveland in the playoffs.

Playoff Histories for Cleveland and New York

• Guardians: Cleveland has an all-time record of 64-62. They have appeared in the World Series 6 times – 1920, 1948, 1954,1995, 1997, and 2016 – and lost 6 times.

• Yankees: The Yankees are looking to claim their 41^st AL Pennant. New York has won 27 World Championships. Their last World Series victory was in 2009. They have been to the playoffs 57 times.

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for Game 4 of the ALCS between Cleveland and New York

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday’s Game 4 between the Guardians and the Yankees:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline

• Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Run Line

• Total Runs: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the OVER of 8 Total Runs

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and total picks for each of the games on today’s calendar!

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