The Yankees won the AL East in 2024 and capitalized off that momentum to go on a run to the World Series before ultimately falling to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 5 games.
So what will 2025 have in store for the Bombers?
If you go by the recently released PECOTA projections, it’s going to be another year of postseason baseball in the Bronx.
Each year, Baseball Prospectus uses what they call their PECOTA engine to project how clubs will fare in the upcoming season. With some tweaks made to the engine this year, here’s an important note to keep in mind:
Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range.
For 2025, PECOTA sees the Yankees winning 89.7 games, the highest total of any American League team and the fourth-highest win total in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (103.8), Atlanta Braves (92.4), and Chicago Cubs (90.6).
The Yanks are projected to finish just ahead of the Baltimore Orioles (89.2) to win the AL East, with PECOTA giving them a 78.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.
And in case you’re wondering how accurate this projection might be, PECOTA projected the Yankees to win 94.4 games last season. The Yankees won 94 games as they claimed the AL East title.
The win projection is slightly down this season, and it’s fair to believe that the departure of Juan Soto to the Mets plays a huge role. The Yankees have attempted to fill the Soto-sized void by adding Cody Bellinger as their starting center fielder and Paul Goldschmidt as their starting first baseman, but time will tell how Aaron Judge and the rest of the bats perform without Soto in the lineup. The Yankees also added Max Fried to give them one of the best rotations in all of baseball heading into the new season.
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