When the Yankees couldn’t re-sign Juan Soto over the winter, they pivoted to a run-prevention plan that included streamlining a pockmarked defense, adding one of the best free agent starters in lefty Max Fried, and trading for dazzling closer Devin Williams. Nice.
But that plan took a serious ding this spring when Gerrit Cole needed Tommy John surgery. Fried is still a great signing and will front their staff, but the Yanks are far weaker now that they don’t have Cole, one of the few rotation lions still working in baseball’s age of the “five-and-fly” starter.
Now it’s fair to wonder if the Yankees’ lofty goals – a repeat trip to the World Series, this time with a victory parade – are in peril. Luis Gil and Giancarlo Stanton are out to begin the season, too. Yuck.
But the Yankees still have Aaron Judge, the single greatest offensive force in the game – his OPS of 1.159 last year was 123 points higher than Shohei Ohtani’s (Yes, that Ohtani) – and they added what they believe will be lineup help in Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt.
And who knows what Jasson Domínguez can bring now that he’s going to get a chance – finally. If it seems like you’ve been hearing about his outsized talents before he was even born, well, it’s because he’s one of the most-hyped prospects ever, even in an age when teenagers are treated as untouchable diamond gods though they have miles to go before they sniff the majors.
Now, however, it’s Domínguez’s time. Is it the Yankees’ time, too? The answer would be much simpler if Cole were pitching this year.
What the Yankees have going for them
Judge. You know why, if you’ve been paying even cursory attention to baseball the past few years. If he’s healthy, he might hit 60-plus home runs again.
Their bullpen, led by Williams and his “Airbender” changeup and setup man Luke Weaver, is strong, though Weaver must prove that his 2024 breakout (2.89 ERA!) was not a one-year surge. The Yanks have been very good at finding other relief contributors, sometimes from unlikely candidates, too.
The remaining arms in the rotation are solid. Carlos Rodón can be confounding every five days, but his ceiling is high – can’t stop thinking about that nails Game 1 start against Cleveland in the ALDS last year. Clarke Schmidt holds promise for more than he’s delivered in his young career, too. Fried is a ground ball machine and the Yanks now own the gloves to scoop ‘em up.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back at second base, probably his best position, and he and Anthony Volpe should form an athletic keystone tandem. Chisholm, one of four players with at least 24 homers and 40 steals last season (Ohtani was one of the others), is a power-speed blend who could be ready to go even bigger.
Goldschmidt, if he provides, say, 20 homers and strong defense at first, will be an enormous improvement over what the Yanks have gotten out of first base in recent years. Yankee first basemen had a .335 slugging percentage in 2024, the worst in the majors at the position.
We’ll get to third base in a separate category. That’s foreshadowing, if it wasn’t clear.
Bellinger, in center field, should help on defense and his lefty swing could thrive in Yankee Stadium. Most projection systems have him getting to the low 20s in home runs, but perhaps the short porch helps him to a power infusion that gets him into the 30s again. We’ll see.
Catcher Austin Wells, coming off a huge spring, is an ascending player with power and catching acumen. He slugged 13 homers last season. Can he get to 20 or perhaps beyond, this year? Another player who had a huge spring, Ben Rice, could be an interesting lineup wrinkle.
The Yankees will make the playoffs if…
Judge is healthy all season.
Judge led the majors last year in too many categories to list, even in an Internet article. There is enough behind him to get the Yanks into the tournament where they can, as usual, take their chances in October’s cauldron. Even without the wondrous Soto, the Yankees should score.
Of course, it would help if Domínguez turns out to be even half as good as some of his boosters say he’ll be, Bellinger hits, Chisholm continues to grow, and Volpe finally makes an offensive leap. Volpe increased his average by 34 points (to .243) last year, but his homers dipped from 20 to 12.
This would help, too – a triumphant Stanton return from tennis elbow in both elbows. He hit seven homers in 14 postseason games last October, a huge factor in the Yanks getting to the Fall Classic. The ugly swings he sometimes takes are cringe-inducing, but his power is an undeniable, game-changing (series-changing!) weapon.
They need to squeeze something out of their rotation depth, too, considering what’s happened so far. Good thing they kept Marcus Stroman after trying to trade him over the winter. Will Warren, a talented youngster, and pickup Carlos Carrasco should have impact, too, at least early on.
Crisper, more athletic defense profiles as a must, too, all over the field. Domínguez, who was so worrisome on defense last year that the Yanks kept using Alex Verdugo instead, is key here.
The Yankees will miss the playoffs if…
Judge is not healthy all season.
Remember 2023? We might not have realized it at the time, but the Yanks were cooked once Judge hurt his toe crashing into the wall at Dodger Stadium. The Yanks finished 82-80, everyone was big mad, and it was easy to wonder if a longer-term lull was looming in the Bronx.
It remains to be seen if third base is a crater that hurts their chances, too. The Bombers go into the season with Oswaldo Cabrera as the likely starter, though he’s been mostly a utility player (and human caffeine as a hype man) in his career. They clearly wanted DJ LeMahieu to take the job to start, but he got hurt in camp.
So it’s fair to ask: Did they fall one winter move short here?
And, since it’s the Yankees and we know their recent history with aches and aging players, the specter of the IL always lurks. They must stay healthy (they haven’t already). Judge most of all.
Final record and playoff prediction
88-74
Third in the AL East
Second Wild Card spot
Chill, they’re making the October tournament. Everyone seems to think the AL is the weaker league this year. Maybe so, but tell it to the AL East, a minefield of a division, what with the Red Sox improving, the Orioles flashing immense young talent, the how-are-they-always-problematic Rays, and the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Blue Jays, who someday might put it all together as a club.
That’s why the Yanks profile as third place finishers. The real test always comes in October, anyway. The Yankees get there thanks to Judge, defense, and pitching. The front office, under GM Brian Cashman, has always shown a willingness to add at the deadline and they’ll probably need to, so they could be different (better!) in a few months.
Moves help push them into the ALCS and a meeting with the revived Texas Rangers. That’s where the pinstriped season ends, unless Judge has the playoff series of his life, the monster one Yankees fans have been craving.
As with everything Yankees, so much depends on Judge.
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