Valspar Championship
Palm Harbor, Florida
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) – Par 71 – 7,352 yards
Field – 156 entrants
Purse – $8.7M
The Preview
The carnage that TPC Sawgrass’ closing few holes forced J.J. Spaun to experience during Monday morning’s playoff finish at THE PLAYERS Championship provided a fitting commencement to Valspar week, as a similar theme typically extends into the Florida Swing’s finale at the Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course, where the infamous “Snake Pit” provides an entertaining three-hole stretch to close out a par-71 venue that features five long par-3s and a full quartet of par-5s.
Nearly four-inch rough and tree-lined fairways place an emphasis on driving accuracy over distance off the tee, with a significant portion of approach shots expected to come from 175-plus yards, especially when considering the aforementioned demanding par-3s. The initial weather forecast indicates the possibility for a wave advantage, with the PM/AM split potentially dealing with a much stronger breeze. This can significantly impact DFS ownership, but don’t be afraid to lean into the risk of targeting players on the supposedly bad end of the draw to get different, especially in lower stakes and larger fields.
Recent Champions
2024 – Peter Malnati
2023 – Taylor Moore
2022 – Sam Burns
2021 – Sam Burns
2020 – None
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Paul Casey
2017 – Adam Hadwin
2016 – Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Par-3: 200-225 Efficiency
Driving Accuracy
Par-5 scoring
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Justin Thomas – $43
After an opening 78 had Thomas seemingly headed for an early trunk slam at TPC Sawgrass last week, he responded by matching the course record with a 10-under 62 on Friday for a 16-shot swing in the right direction. He ultimately paced THE PLAYERS Championship in total birdies with 23 tweeters throughout the tournament, while also ranking second among the field in putts per GIR and 11th in SG: Putting. Thomas is up to No. 1 in Opportunities Gained over his last 24 rounds, guided by some stellar approach play. Additionally, he’s placed T18 or better in five of seven career Valspar Championship appearances.
Tommy Fleetwood – $42
The 34-year-old Englishman remains on the prowl for his maiden PGA Tour victory, but he’s placed T3-T16 in his two previous trips to Innisbrook, and he’s now coming off a stretch of three consecutive top-15s from The Genesis Invitational through THE PLAYERS, where he gained a season-high 7.3 strokes from tee to green. Fleetwood is sixth in Prox: 150-175 and seventh in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds.
Sepp Straka – $41
Straka not only continues to excel with his irons, but he also hit the sixth-most fairways in regulation on the way to a T14 at TPC Sawgrass last week, which marked his third straight top-15 dating back to the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. He’s up to third on Tour in overall proximity, fifth in GIR percentage and sixth in SG: APP this season.
Glue Guys
Corey Conners – $37
After a mini-slump earlier in the year from the Sony Open in Hawaii through the WM Phoenix Open, Conners is resurging with finishes of T6-3-T24 since The Genesis Invitational. Most notably, he’s gained a combined 14.7 strokes on and around the greens throughout these 12 recent rounds, flashing major short-game improvements over this smaller sample. We already know he’s a productive ball striker, and Conners owns a pair of top-25 results in two prior Valspar outings.
Michael Kim – $34
Kim rattled off five consecutive finishes of T13 or better from the WMPO to the Arnold Palmer Invitational before missing the cut by one shot at THE PLAYERS, but it finally afforded him a couple days rest as he heads to his seventh start in as many weeks. His track record at Innisbrook is underwhelming, but he’s basically an entirely different golfer at the moment, sitting first in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Par-5 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds. Give me form over history any time, any place, but especially at a volatile layout like the Copperhead Course.
Will Zalatoris – $33
Zalatoris finally found something with the broomstick putter last week at THE PLAYERS, but he posted an eight-over 44 on the back nine of Round 3 to remove his name from contention. Nonetheless, he gained a combined 8.6 strokes with his irons and on the greens at TPC Sawgrass, which led him to 19 total birdies, an eagle and 75.0 Yahoo fantasy points despite just a T30 finish. Zalatoris ranks eighth in each of SG: APP, Par-5 Efficiency and Prox: 175-200 over his past 12 rounds.
Bargain Bin
Luke Clanton – $29
The No. 1 amateur in the world and native Floridian is underpriced anywhere in the $20s against this field in his Valspar Championship debut, coming off a T18 at the Cognizant Classic not long after winning the collegiate Watersound Invitational by three shots last month. Over his last 24 measured rounds at the PGA Tour level, Clanton ranks second in Opportunities Gained, fifth in P4: 450-500 Efficiency and 16th in SG: T2G.
Alex Smalley – $27
Smalley’s shaky final-round performances have made it clearer that he’s not yet ready to win out here under pressure, but he’s averaged 82.3 Yahoo fantasy points per event throughout his last four starts, providing immense value in the $20s from a pure scoring perspective. He just paced THE PLAYERS Championship in SG: Around-the-Green while converting 18 of 25 scrambling opportunities, ascending to top-3 in both Bogey Avoidance and P4: 450-500 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds.
Bud Cauley – $20
Cauley racked up 22 total birdies and an eagle while gaining strokes across the board to ultimately notch one of the best performances of his entire career with a T6 at THE PLAYERS last week. Although that’ll be an incredibly tough act to follow, his salary hasn’t budged from the $20 minimum, so it’s relatively inexpensive to lean into this risk from a lineup-building standpoint. Over his last 24 rounds, Cauley ranks 12th or better in each of P4: 450-500 Efficiency, SG: T2G and Prox: 175-200 yards.
Evaluating your options for the Valspar Championship? Look at the top Sports Betting Apps!
Read the full article here