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Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have had polar opposite starts to the Chase. While the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has just found his first top-five finish in the first four Chase races, the two-time Cup winner has had a worst finish of 5th, with two victories and a second-place finish. And while it seems like Chevrolet has wiped out Toyota’s early-season dominance, the question arises: what exactly happened to Toyota’s performance?

Several analysts have tried to answer that question. Dale Earnhardt Jr. pointed to the splitter change enforced by NASCAR at North Wilkesboro as the starting point of what he described, not necessarily as Toyota’s downfall, but rather Chevrolet and...

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