With the season looming and the parade of bad news from Spring Training (despite the Braves being 2026 Spring Training champions, heh), I wanted to throw this out there as a question that you, ultimately, will be scored and evaluated on. Chances are, you have strong opinions on this topic; here’s your chance to get something (or not) for your convictions.
The Braves currently project to have MLB’s tenth-most productive rotation. This is based on a lot of very good Chris Sale, three-fourths-of-the-season’s worth of above-average Spencer Strider, an effective Reynaldo Lopez that basically hangs around for four months, a good second-half-ish from Spencer Schwellenbach, among the other guys doing some stuff (Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep). That said, the tenor of pretty much all conversation regarding the Braves and their rotation is highly negative, more akin to “Will the rotation injuries cut off a comeback attempt before it even begins?” than anything else.
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Of course, a rotation does not a team make. While no team can do this for a whole season, I’m reminded of the silliness of June 2023, where the Braves had something like the worst rotation production in MLB (second-worst FIP- ahead of only the Rockies), but went 21-4 because they just obliterated other teams even more soundly than their own Jared Shusters were getting wrecked. So, without mincing words too much, the following outcomes are possible:
A. The rotation is good
For purposes of discussion, let’s say “good” is tenth or better in MLB in fWAR when it’s all said and done. The variants here are:
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A1: The rotation is good, and the Braves make the playoffs.
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A2: The rotation is good, but the Braves miss the playoffs (probably due to offensive deficiency, but could also be due to weird one-run game stuff, or poor defense, or a disastrous bullpen).
Note that for this variant, and the ones below, health is automatically baked in to rotation quality, as more injuries will lead to the Braves plumbing the depth chart even further, and presumably getting less fWAR for their efforts when doing so.
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B. The rotation is meh
Let’s say “meh” is somewhere between 11th and 20th in MLB in fWAR. Let’s also expand the variants a bit:
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B1: The rotation is meh, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential between the Braves’ rotation fWAR and the tenth-ranked team’s fWAR would have any implications for playoff rounds (i.e., the Braves would have a top-two record in the NL with added fWAR up to the tenth-best rotation).
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B2: The rotation is meh, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential noted above would not have any implications for playoff rounds.
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B3: The rotation is meh, the Braves miss the playoffs, but would’ve made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
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B4: The rotation is meh, the Braves miss the playoffs, and would not have made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
Which of course, leaves us with…
C. The rotation is bad
Same deal here as for the category above. “Bad” is, of course, what’s left: a bottom ten performance by fWAR.
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C1: The rotation is bad, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential between the Braves’ rotation fWAR and the tenth-ranked team’s fWAR would have any implications for playoff rounds (i.e., the Braves would have a top-two record in the NL with added fWAR up to the tenth-best rotation). This is the June 2023 option.
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C2: The rotation is bad, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential noted above would not have any implications for playoff rounds.
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C3: The rotation is bad, the Braves miss the playoffs, but would’ve made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
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C4: The rotation is bad, the Braves miss the playoffs, and would not have made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
Basically, I’m asking you to first pick your prognostication for the rotation (category/letter), and then select the implication of that prognostication, if any, for the standings at the end of the season (subcategory/number).
And, as all of these, let’s see some confidence attestations, too. Pair your selection of one of the ten variants above with a confidence number from 1 to 5, where 5 is “I am sure this will happen” and 1 is “I have no idea whatsoever what will happen but picked something to participate.” No partial confidences, a whole number that is 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 only.
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Anyway, have at it. I’m curious to see where this ends up.
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