Why Red Sox are legit threat to win division – NBC Sports Boston

The last time the Boston Red Sox earned the American League East crown, they won a franchise-record 108 games and went on to capture the World Series title. They won’t need to be historic to reclaim the division in 2025.

This year, the AL East is as open as it has been in years. The reigning division champion New York Yankees lost superstar Juan Soto in free agency and enter the season dealing with a slew of injuries. The Baltimore Orioles lost ace Corbin Burnes and didn’t make minimal upgrades outside of adding ex-Red Sox slugger Tyler O’Neill. The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays remain question marks, with neither expected to make a major step forward.

Meanwhile, Boston overhauled its starting rotation by acquiring Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. They bolstered their lineup and infield defense with the signing of All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman, and they should benefit from the arrivals of top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer. That should be enough to put them on par — or ahead — of their divisional foes.

So, how will the AL East standings shake out by October? Here’s our 2025 season prediction:

1. Boston Red Sox

• 2024 result: 81-81, third in AL East, missed postseason
• 2025 prediction: 93-69, first in AL East

Yes, you read that correctly: the Red Sox win their first division crown since 2018, and that isn’t as bold a prediction as it may seem.

Unlike in recent years, there’s no clear-cut powerhouse in the division. The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles aren’t as intimidating heading into 2025, while the Red Sox made major upgrades across the board.

The starting rotation now boasts a legitimate Cy Young candidate in Garrett Crochet and a two-time World Series champion in Walker Buehler. Offensively, the addition of veteran Alex Bregman adds another elite bat to what could be one of the league’s most dangerous lineups.

Bregman also solves Boston’s defensive woes at third base, one of the team’s biggest weaknesses in 2024. His arrival likely shifts Rafael Devers to designated hitter, a move the slugger may not embrace but one that improves the team overall.

Then there’s the youth movement. Top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer are knocking on the door. If even one of them lives up to the hype, this Red Sox offense could rank among the top three in MLB.

That said, there are concerns, especially in the bullpen. Boston lost Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, and will rely on veterans Aroldis Chapman and Liam Hendriks to stabilize the late innings. If they falter, the Red Sox could struggle to close out games.

Still, the Red Sox took a step forward last season and with several significant upgrades, they should take an even bigger leap in 2025.

2. Baltimore Orioles

• 2024 result: 91-71, second in AL East, lost to Kansas City Royals in Wild Card Series
• 2025 prediction: 89-73, second AL East

The O’s still have arguably the best lineup in the division despite losing slugger Anthony Santander in free agency to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Young shortstop Gunnar Henderson is a perennial MVP candidate and Adley Rutschman is a top-five catcher in baseball. Colton Cowser was the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up and Jordan Westburg made a name for himself as one of the best young infielders in the sport in Year 2 of his career. Jackson Holliday still has superstar potential after a disappointing rookie campaign.

The concern? Pitching. Losing Corbin Burnes was a massive blow, and they didn’t replace him with a true ace. That leaves Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and 41-year-old Charlie Morton to lead the rotation.

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

However, Baltimore’s bullpen could be a strength with closer Félix Bautista returning from injury. If their starting pitching holds up, the Orioles will be the Red Sox’ stiffest competition for the division crown.

3. New York Yankees

• 2024 result: 94-68, first in AL East, lost to Los Angeles Dodgers in World Series
• 2025 prediction: 87-75, third in AL East

The Yankees are in rough shape heading into 2025, and not just because they failed to re-sign superstar Juan Soto in free agency.

Their ace Gerrit Cole will miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. While prized offseason addition Max Fried should help pick up the slack atop the rotation, Cole’s injury is the tip of the iceberg.

Right-hander Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year, is expected to be sidelined until June with a lat strain. Veteran slugger Giancarlo Stanton has torn tendons in both elbows and will start the year on the injured list. Infielder DJ LeMahieu will miss time with a calf strain.

Elsa/Getty Images

Elsa/Getty Images

Even when healthy, this Yankees’ lineup isn’t exactly Murderers’ Row. Two-time MVP Aaron Judge is the only player on the projected Opening Day roster who posted an OPS above .800 last season. Plenty will be put on his shoulders as he looks to carry the group without Soto and Stanton.

Offseason additions Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt could help, but both are coming off down seasons. If Goldschmidt continues to decline at age 37, he could be more of a liability than an asset.

The Yankees still have enough talent to compete for a Wild Card spot, but their injuries and roster turnover will likely keep them from contending for the division title.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

• 2024 result: 80-82, fourth in AL East, missed postseason
• 2025 prediction: 84-78, fourth in AL East

The Rays missed the postseason last year for the first time since 2018, largely due to injuries and the Wander Franco scandal. This season, their success hinges on ace Shane McClanahan returning to All-Star form after Tommy John surgery, offseason additions Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim adding offensive production, and top prospects Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead making an impact.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The biggest issue? The lineup. Tampa Bay scored the second-fewest runs in MLB last season and didn’t make major offensive upgrades.

The Rays could sneak into a Wild Card spot if everything breaks right, but another fourth-place finish seems more likely.

5. Toronto Blue Jays

• 2024 result: 74-88, fifth in AL East, missed postseason
• 2025 prediction: 79-83, fifth in AL East

The Blue Jays improved in the offseason after their last-place AL East finish, signing ex-Orioles slugger Anthony Santander, All-Star middle infielder Andres Gimenez, future Hall-of-Fame righty Max Scherzer, and stud reliever Jeff Hoffman in free agency. But will that be enough?

Their two best players Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are scheduled to become free agents after the season. If the club gets off to a slow start, it won’t be long before we start talking about a fire sale in Toronto.

To avoid that scenario, the Jays will need a bounce-back year out of Bichette while newcomers Santander and Gimenez add pop to the lineup. Scherzer must stay healthy while Bowden Francis builds off a breakout 2024 campaign behind Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt in the rotation.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto’s performance over the first two months will determine the organization’s short and long-term fates. While there’s enough talent on the roster to rebound from their lackluster 2024, we’d bet on the Blue Jays being among the more active clubs at the July trade deadline. That makes them our pick to place last in the division for the second straight year.