Whenever I share content, I strive to make sure that it’s based on facts. I need to disclose that this will not be based on many of those, but instead on my admittedly unrealistic optimism about the upcoming St. Louis Cardinals 2026 season.
Let’s get the facts out of the way from the get go. As I mentioned yesterday, the new PECOTA projections shared by Baseball Prospectus do not envision much happiness for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2026. They see the Cardinals as a 66-win team while ZiPS isn’t much different. I have not come across any reliable baseball protagonist predicting anything above a .500 season for St. Louis and I don’t disagree that the roster doesn’t look like much on paper.
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So why am I so gosh-darned giddy about the St. Louis Cardinals 2026 season? I don’t have a good answer other than to say that it’s partially Spring’s fault since the upcoming warmer weather months tend to put me in a better mood, but I have baseball reasons also. First, I haven’t been this happy about St. Louis Cardinals baseball since 2022. The return of Albert Pujols for his final season and the 700 home run chase was a blast. I was also naively thinking that the Goldschmidt/Arenado era would bring us championship contention again. That was all dashed by the Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the playoffs and I can’t say I’ve been very happy with the organization since. The past 3 seasons were an infuriating experiment in watching the baseball team I have cheered on since birth tread water and seem to accept mediocrity. I don’t read minds, but I had the perception that John Mozeliak and Cardinals ownership simply wanted a team that might be good enough to sneak into the playoffs instead of building a juggernaut that could contend against filthy-rich teams like the Dodgers.
New President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom and his team have changed the atmosphere significantly by aggressively moving Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and their no-trade clauses elsewhere while restocking our minor league system with young blood. As the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported a few days ago, the Cardinals farm system is now rated #2 in baseball by Baseball America, the highest it’s been in 13 years. It’s about dang freaking time, I say. We now possess the super-interesting Jurrangelo Cijntje who may or may not continue his lefty/righty pitching approach in his St. Louis Cardinals progression, but his upside is tantalizing. Credit also to John Mozeliak for drafting Liam Doyle who will be infuriating opposing teams sometime in the next year or two. If you didn’t get Chris Carpenter vibes listening to him answer questions during the Winter Warmup, you missed something awesome.
As I look at the St. Louis Cardinals going into Spring Training, I can’t wait to see what JJ Wetherholt does with his open opportunity to make the starting day roster. I’m also unrealistically hopeful that Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker will find their sky high potential. I think it will be fun to see what Dustin May does now that he’s a part of the St. Louis Cardinals and not those dastardly Dodgers. I also think this will be the year when Riley O’Brien becomes a feared closer. OK, so maybe feared is TOO optimistic, but I think he’s someone the Cardinals can rely on to get them through this transitional rebuilding phase.
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What will be interesting to me will be how the overall St. Louis Cardinals fanbase shows up (or not) for the 2026 season. I know there are many who have anecdotally shared the bad vibes they overheard at many games last year. How many of them, I wonder, understand what Chaim Bloom has accomplished already and the big picture of where this will hopefully take the team? Are they excited to see the debut of JJ Wetherholt? I sure hope so. While I’m not planning to concede losses before any games get played, I admit the St. Louis Cardinals will likely not be a contender this year. That does not diminish my newfound happiness that the turnaround has started and mediocrity is no longer good enough. I cannot wait to see where this takes us over the next few seasons.
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