Who’s in, who’s out for Tour Championship: ‘Bubble’ watch heats up at BMW Championship

Bubbles will burst on Sunday at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis.

That’s when the field of 50 will be reduced to 30 for East Lake. Twenty players in the field at the BMW Championship will be canceling their plans for Atlanta and the Tour Championship. There’s still a lot that can change but with 18 holes to go, three players are projected to move into the top 30 and three are expected to be bumped out.

Projected in

Gary Woodland, who started the week at No. 31, enters the final round at 11 under and T-4 after a Saturday 70. He’s projected to climb all the way to No. 19 and book his first trip back to Atlanta since 2019, the year he won the U.S. Open. Patrick Cantlay also is coming through in the clutch. The 2019 FedEx Cup champ started the week at No. 43 and is projected to zoom to No. 22 after a third-round 66 lifted him to T-2. He’s seeking his first win in four years since winning the 2022 BMW, but will need another good round on Sunday to secure a top finish if he wants to make it to the Tour Championship, which he has made five straight years and eight of the last nine. The third player who entered the week outside the top 30 but is projected to make it to East Lake is Sungjae Im. He’s the new ‘Bubble Boy’ at No. 30 after shooting 70 to sit in seventh. He’s trying to extend an impressive streak in which he’s made it to the Tour Championship in all seven years since joining the PGA Tour, the second longest active streak of qualifying for East Lake behind only Rory McIlroy with eight. Im has not spent a single week inside the top 30 this season marking his fewest weeks inside the top 30 in his career.

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Projected out

Kurt Kitayama entered the week at No. 28 but he’s projected to be the odd man out at No. 31. He’s going to need to make up 13.374 points someway, somehow. Bellerive is in the heart of Budweiser country but this Bud’s not for Bud Cauley, who started the week at No. 29 and is projected to finish No. 33. Rickie Fowler started the week as the ‘Bubble Boy’ at No. 30 and he bogeyed three of the final six holes to shoot 69 on Saturday. That’s left him 20.938 points behind and projected at No. 32. That’s the same spot he finished last year in the season-long standings when he finished T-7 at the BMW held at Caves Valley. Fowler is seeking his eighth Tour Championship start and first since 2023.

Making the top 30 comes with certain benefits ranging from FedEx Cup prize money, a multi-year Tour exemption, a Masters invitation among exemptions to the U.S. and British Opens and in all likelihood the PGA too. Fowler has played in the Masters just once the last six seasons.

“That’d be nice,” he told Golf Digest on Saturday of the majors benefit. “If not, then obviously maybe play a little bit in the fall to try and work on world ranking. But like I said, regardless, we’re going to be fine. Obviously, we’ve put together some good finishes this year. It’s not a bad position to be in. So yeah, go put together a nice solid round of golf tomorrow and go to Atlanta. And if not, it’s start somewhat of the off season a week sooner.”

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FedEx Cup standings: Last 5 in for Tour Championship

FedEx Cup standings: First 5 out for Tour Championship

Adam Schupak is a senior writer for Golfweek, covering the PGA Tour.

This article originally appeared on Golfweek: Who’s in, who’s out for Tour Championship: ‘Bubble’ watch heats up at BMW Championship