Who will be the first to fall in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Playoffs?

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are notoriously unpredictable, but that’s not going to stop us from giving it our best try. We now know which 16 drivers will be fighting for the 2025 title, settling the final two spots in a thrilling regular season finale at Daytona last weekend. 

The 2025 group of contenders features four former Cup champions, 14 drivers who have won at least one race this year, and a talented Cup rookie: Shane van Gisbergen.

The first round is all ovals, but none of these tracks are really similar. It opens with a crown jewel — the 76th running of NASCAR’s Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. It will be a grueling race, pushing both drivers and teams to the absolute limit.

Up next is World Wide Technology Raceway (Gateway), which has only been on the Cup schedule since 2022 — but this will be its first appearance in the Playoffs. It’s a 1.250-mile oval with very little banking and two distinctly different corners. 

The Round of 16 ends at Bristol Motor Speedway, with 500 laps around a high-banked, blistering fast half-mile that is prone to chaos. Here, the bottom four positions in points will be eliminated from title contention.

Just before the action gets underway this weekend, Motorsport.com’s new Senior NASCAR Editor Matt Weaver joins longtime Motorsport.com news manager Nick DeGroot as they attempt to predict how the opening round will play out.

Matt Weaver’s first four out

Josh Berry: I have covered the entirety of Josh Berry’s career and find it extremely rewarding for the sport that someone like him has advanced to the highest level entirely on merit. With that said, I just don’t see the math of how the Wood Brothers No. 21 team overcomes what they have been over the summer, which is a car with okay speed, but also a lot of mistakes on pit road and the occasional hiccup by a second-year driver at the highest level. Berry is the only driver not named Shane Van Gisbergen who has an average finish in the 20s but without the playoff point buffer to sustain it.

Austin Cindric: Team Penske playoff voodoo magic aside, I just don’t see the greatness in Cindric and the No. 2 team right now. That isn’t to say there isn’t an elite performer in there somewhere, and this is actually his best overall season, but when you have to cut four, you have to cut four. This one was admittedly hard because I see the potential for Cindric to have good runs at both Gateway and Bristol, and it’s again, a Penske car in the playoffs.

Austin Dillon: This one is also tough because the Richard Childress Racing No. 3 team have started to streak over the past month and don’t forget that crew chief Richard Boswell won the Southern 500 last year with Chase Briscoe at Stewart-Haas. For RCR, they just haven’t shown the same prowess that the most likely Round of 12 teams have to make me want to see them through.

Ross Chastain: This selection isn’t even me suggesting that the Trackhouse No. 1 isn’t good enough to advance. They are and Chastain has shown a tenacity to make things happen when he needs to the most. Instead of trying to wax poetic on an intellectual reason why I think Chastain fails to advance, my reasoning is simply that I am guessing he will have bad luck in one of these three races and he does not have the playoff point buffer to sustain it.

Nick DeGroot’s first four out

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing Toyota

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Austin Dillon: While his Richmond triumph was impressive, let’s not forget that it is his only top five this entire season. The RCR driver will still be able to call this season a success (even if his teammate disagrees), but the No. 3 is not making it beyond the first round. These are three very technical tracks, and it’s my belief that RCR won’t be able to keep up with the competition.

Josh Berry: Despite earning the Wood Brothers a surprise win early in the year, 2025 has been a struggle for Berry. He is one of two playoff drivers with an average finish worse than 20th, and that’s even with back-to-back top tens to end the regular season. Now, maybe they found something there that will carry over into the next three races, but I’m doubtful. The No. 21 will not advance beyond this round.

Austin Cindric: This was a tough one. Cindric hasn’t been flashy this year, but he’s been consistent. Before a crash at Daytona, he had five consecutive races where he finished 16th or higher. He is also the defending winner at Gateway. The problem is that he is only point above the cutline, and that’s not going to be enough unless we see a sudden step up in performance for the No. 2 team. Penske may win a fourth straight title this year, but it won’t be with Cindric.

Tyler Reddick: This is my surprise exit. Last year, Reddick won the regular season title and made it all the way to the Championship 4. But 2025 has been a very different season. He is one of two winless drivers to have made the playoffs, and the No. 45 has just been all over the place lately. Just look at their recent finishes: 21st, 34th, 9th, 19th, 29th. He is already in the drop zone and while I expect Darlington to be a good weekend for him, it won’t be enough to save him from a shocking first-round exit.

Matt’s drivers who will barely advance

Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Chris Graythen – Getty Images

Shane Van Gisbergen: Gateway and Bristol are going to be challenging and potentially perilous for the four-time race winner but his playoff point buffer is going to just be enough to advance over teammate Chastain. But also, you can make a case that he could have a really strong Southern 500 based on what he did in finishing 14th at Richmond. SVG has shown a comfort in precise, high tire wear races, especially those that require leaning against the wall. He finished 20th at Darlington in the spring and returns to South Carolina an even better ovalist. If he has one really good race in this round, that combined with his playoff point buffer, should be enough if he avoids any DNFs.

Tyler Reddick: Last year’s regular season champion has not won a race and the team simply do not look like themselves this summer, but these first three races line up well for them and the previous playoff gauntlet experience shows a more than capable racer who will be able to maximize his performance while others may try too hard.

Nick’s drivers who will barely advance

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Ross Chastain: The first round will be an incredibly stressful one for the folks at Trackhouse Racing. Chastain is just one point above the cutline, and he has been in a bit of a summer slump after his dramatic last-to-first win in the Coca-Cola 600. However, that’s also not unusual for him based on previous years. The No. 1 team seems to have very inconsistent summers, but despite an inability to collect stage points due to poor qualifying efforts, Chastain is good at bringing the car forward through the field. Looking at the races he’s finished this year, only three have been outside the top 20. That will save him in the first round, especially if others make mistakes.

Shane van Gisbergen: Then there’s Chastain’s rookie teammate and road racing ace, van Gisbergen. Thanks to his dominance at the road courses, the Kiwi has a 16-point buffer entering the Playoffs. He will need every last one of those points, and while I expect it to be even more difficult for him than Chastain, he will also advance into the Round of 12. I say this because SVG is a very smart and analytical driver, and one who doesn’t get wrapped up in the pressure of the moment. He’s also extremely good at managing his tires, which will be critical at a place like Darlington. I will be shocked if he makes a mistake behind the wheel over the next three weeks with what is at stake. He knows what he has to do and as someone who has watched him since his Tekno Autosport days in Supercars, an SVG with a clear mission in mind is not someone you want to bet against.