Who are the Big Ten’s College Football Playoff contenders in 2025? Surprise team joins list of usual suspects

In all likelihood, there will soon be a day in which the Big Ten gets four bids to the College Football Playoff no matter what happens. Every team in the league could somehow go 6-6, but the rules would state four of those 6-6 teams deserve the right to play for a national title.

That day is not today, however. The long, illustrious history of the 12-team College Football Playoff is yet to be rewritten, so any Big Ten team that wants to reach the College Football Playoff will have to do so the old-fashioned way: by having a group of administrators deem them superior to others because of the little green boxes on their computer screens.

So as we sit here in March, with five months between us and the start of the regular season, what better time than now to figure out which five Big Ten teams are most likely to have the required number of green boxes? Now, you could say that in the Big Ten, finding five teams is easy because you already know who four of them are, but last year, you probably would’ve had Michigan and USC on the list, and instead you got Indiana.

There’s always room for a surprise, and that surprise is where our list begins … because we’re going in alphabetical order.

The Illini will enter the season in the unusual position of having lofty expectations from people across the country. They went 10-3 last season, with two road losses to Penn State and Oregon and a win over South Carolina to finish the year. Most of that team is back; Illinois ranks third in returning production. The offensive line returns intact, and Luke Altmyer is back at QB for his third season as a starter. He’s the only third-year starter in the league outside Drew Allar at Penn State.

The other factor working in Illinois’ favor is its schedule. It’s not easy, but compared to what other Big Ten teams will be dealing with, it’s certainly manageable. Depending on your power ratings, it can be argued the two best teams on the slate are Ohio State and USC, and both come to Champaign. There’s also an argument to be made that Indiana will be the toughest road game, but it’s hard to say with any certainty what Indiana will be in 2025. Illinois is a team that was on the periphery of the playoff field in 2024 and should be again in 2025.

Michigan

Here’s a secret I want you to keep between the two of us. If I were putting this list together from most likely to least likely, I’d have Michigan behind Illinois. I know it feels crazy on the surface, but Michigan is coming off an 8-5 season that included a loss to Illinois. Also, while Illinois is third nationally in returning production, Michigan is No. 29, and we’ll hear plenty of former Wolverines have their names called in the early rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft.

It’s not just raw production that Michigan is replacing, but also some of its best players on defense. Still, the bigger question facing this team is the offense, particularly at quarterback. Bryce Underwood arrives in Ann Arbor with plenty of hype, but I’m skeptical he’ll begin the season as a starter. Sherrone Moore came up under Jim Harbaugh, and the Wolverines were in a similar situation a few years ago when they kept the more talented, but less experienced, J.J. McCarthy on the bench behind Cade McNamara. I’d bet on transfer Mikey Keene starting with Underwood being eased in as the season goes on. But if Underwood does live up to his promise, we could see a fast turnaround in Ann Arbor.

Ohio State

Ohio State won a national title, and then damn near the entire team left, including the coordinators. That certainly impacts this team’s chances of repeating as national champions, but it shouldn’t have much of an impact on Ohio State’s ability to compete for a CFP spot. Frankly, a meteor would have to hit Columbus, Ohio, before I entertained the idea of Ohio State not being one of the five most likely Big Ten teams to reach the College Football Playoff.

There are plenty of bumps in the road, though. The Buckeyes open the season with Texas in a rematch of the CFP semifinals and get road dates against Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan. They also get Penn State at home. Considering last year’s team lost two games in the regular season, it’s not crazy to think the 2025 version could do so, too. Still, when you’re as talented as this team is on an annual basis, you have a larger margin of error than everybody else.

Oregon

The way last season ended put a damper on what was an incredible Big Ten debut. The Ducks went undefeated and won the Big Ten in their first year in the league. For perspective, the other three Pac-12 newcomers combined to go 18-20 overall and 11-16 in conference play. Then came the Rose Bowl, and the less said about that, the happier Ducks fans will be with me. But like the Ohio State team the Ducks lost to that day, there’s a lot to replace in Eugene. Also like Ohio State, coach Dan Lanning and company have recruited well enough that this will remain one of the most talented teams in the league.

The big question is at QB. Lanning’s Ducks have been led by two veterans, Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, during his tenure. That won’t be the case in 2025 with Dante Moore, who may be in his third season in college but has played in only nine games. For the sake of comparison, Bo Nix came to Oregon with 34 games under his belt. Dillon Gabriel had 50. Working in Oregon’s favor is a relatively soft start to the season schedule-wise before a road trip to Penn State on the last Saturday of September and what is overall a manageable slate.

Penn State

Expectations are again high at Penn State. The Nittany Lions reached the CFP semifinals last season and then convinced a lot of their best players to return for 2025 to make another run at it. It mirrors the situations we saw at Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024. We know how it ended for those two.

What’s working against the Nittany Lions is their schedule. They get both Oregon and Ohio State during the regular season, with Ohio State on the road. While that’s tough, the good news is the rest of the schedule sets up well. The nonconference slate offers a nice “preseason” opportunity before the Oregon game, and there’s a bye before having to hit the road for Ohio State on Nov. 1.