What does Aaron Judge's injury mean for the Yankees' season and his AL MVP chances?

Adios, Aaron Judge — at least, for a while.

After starting the first 59 games for the New York Yankees this season, the three-time AL MVP missed this week’s series against the Cleveland Guardians due to what was initially described as soreness in his right shoulder and a bone bruise in his ribs. On Thursday, after Judge visited a specialist, the Yankees announced a clearer diagnosis for their superstar right fielder: a stress fracture in the first rib on his right side. The team said he will return to the doctor for follow-up imaging in four to six weeks to assess his progress.

Judge is expected to rejoin the Yankees at some point this season, but an exact return-to-play timeline is unknown at this time.

Losing a generational slugger for any amount of time is a big deal for any team, but the Yankees can take some solace in the fact that Judge should return at some point later this summer. And this is not the first time the Yankees have had to soldier on without their biggest star, though their success in those intervals has varied over the years. When Judge missed two months in 2019 due to a right oblique strain, the Yankees went 37-17 without him. But in 2023, when Judge suffered a right big toe sprain — around the exact same time as this year’s ailment, with that injury occurring June 3 — the Yankees went 19-23 in his absence.

The Yankees’ roster in 2023, however, was far less potent than the one currently constructed around Judge, as evidenced by New York meandering to an 82-80 finish that season (the franchise’s worst record since 1995) even with Judge playing the final two months. A similar trajectory for this year’s club would be stunning, considering the personnel involved. The 2026 Yankees boast an elite starting rotation and multiple hitters having terrific seasons, including Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger, who each rank in the top 10 in fWAR among American League position players — even ahead of Judge, who lands on the injured list ranked 13th.

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The Yankees (37-25 entering Friday) also benefit from playing in an American League that has yet to produce many bona fide contenders, though the Guardians’ series victory this week in the Bronx was an impressive statement on their part. New York’s plus-93 run differential is the best mark in the AL by miles, with Seattle second at plus-30.

The Rays have been a surprising thorn in New York’s side over the first two months and remain in first in the division by a half-game, but Tampa Bay has also lost eight of its past 10 games, having just been swept at home by the struggling Detroit Tigers. And even with the Rays’ resurgence, the Yankees have to feel good that the rest of the AL East — projected to be an all-time gauntlet — has severely underwhelmed, with Boston, Baltimore and Toronto all under .500 due to both injuries and downright disappointing performances up and down their rosters.

As for who will be replacing Judge in right field, manager Aaron Boone has a few options, though a rotation of some kind seems likely. Early reports suggest the Yankees are planning to recall top outfield prospect Spencer Jones, who hit .167 in his 10-game cameo last month before returning to Triple-A. Jones has much to prove at the major-league level, but if the Yankees want to keep things simple from a positional fit standpoint, he could be plugged into right field alongside Bellinger and Trent Grisham, who have primarily handled the other two outfield spots this season.

There’s also Jasson Dominguez, who is working his way back from a shoulder injury and is expected to start a rehab assignment this weekend. If the Yankees prefer a healthy Dominguez in the outfield over Jones, look for Bellinger to slide to right, as Dominguez has barely played any right field as a professional, while Bellinger has handled both corner outfield spots plenty. Beyond the natural outfielders, the Yankees have a pair of superutilitymen in Jose Caballero and Max Schuemann who can roam the grass, which they did this week against Cleveland.

How the Yankees fare without Judge remains to be seen, but there’s another consequence of his injury that is immediately clear: His chances of three-peating as AL MVP are all but squashed. While Shohei Ohtani is well on his way to a fourth straight MVP award and fifth in six years, thanks to his otherworldly two-way play, Judge had yet to separate himself in the American League this season, even before landing on the IL.

On May 6, Judge led MLB with 15 home runs and was second in wRC+ (189) behind only his teammate Rice, but his production has tailed off over the past month, perhaps due to the discomfort he was playing through. Judge hit .207/.320/.329 with just two home runs across 22 games before going on the IL, dropping his season wRC+ to 150, tied with A’s catcher Shea Langeliers for seventh in the AL. That’s a terrific batting line for most players — and a notable decline from Judge’s sensational standards.

Of course, a healthy Judge would be fully capable of bashing his way back to the forefront of the MVP race. Instead, he’s about to miss a bunch of games. Based on the rehab timeline provided, it’s hard to envision Judge returning before the All-Star break; August would seem more likely if he needs to build up his baseball activities after being sidelined for at least a month. That means that even if he stays healthy the rest of the way, Judge will finish with around 100 games played — nowhere near the necessary workload to make a viable MVP case.

This, then, opens the door for the rare Judge-less AL MVP race. Recall that the last time Judge didn’t win the award (in 2023, when he played only 106 games and finished 15th), it went to Ohtani in his final year with the Angels. The last AL MVP won by someone other than Ohtani or Judge was White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu in the shortened 2020 season.

With Judge out, there are several compelling candidates who could make a run at the hardware. That includes his teammate Rice, who along with Houston’s Yordan Alvarez could emerge as an MVP frontrunner on the basis of outlier offense despite limited defensive contributions. Among more all-around résumés, Bobby Witt Jr.’s elite defense at shortstop paired with his above-average bat has him well ahead of the field atop the fWAR leaderboard, and he finished runner-up to Judge two years ago. A’s catcher Shea Langeliers has been fantastic on both sides of the ball. Julio Rodriguez has headlined the Mariners’ surge into first place with Cal Raleigh on the injured list. And while he started slowly, maybe this could be the season José Ramirez finally claims the award after so many near-misses.

Those are just a few of the names to keep an eye on in the suddenly spicy American League MVP race, but others will emerge in the coming months. As for Judge, he’ll be off the radar for a while. And while his chances of winning a third straight MVP seem ruined, his more pressing goal of winning a World Series as captain of the York Yankees should remain within reach and front of mind upon his return.

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