Florida made a bold move by announcing that Billy Napier “will continue” as coach of the Gators. The program is about to close one of the hardest schedules ever with three top-16 opponents in the final four games, making bowl eligibility for the 4-4 Gators highly unlikely.
Napier would return Gainesville for Year 4 despite some historically underwhelming results. His .440 winning percentage is the worst mark by any Florida coach since Raymond Wolf in 1949. Florida had not posted consecutive losing seasons since 1979. Napier is on track to record a third straight in three years.
At the same time, Florida has been trending in the right direction. The Gators played Tennessee within six points and led Georgia before quarterback DJ Lagway got hurt. Florida also picked up its second SEC win of the season with a 48-20 demolition of Kentucky.
Here are the biggest pros and cons of Florida deciding to announce Napier will continue as coach.
Pro: It’s a message to players and recruits
The main reason that the Florida athletic department put out a statement is to reassure players. The Gators have a number of high-profile athletes that other teams will target, including Lagway, receiver Eugene Wilson and defensive lineman LJ McCray. With Napier back, players can settle in and prepare to return, and even potentially work on NIL contracts.
Additionally, Florida’s high school recruiting in the Class of 2025 has been wildly underwhelming as players weigh whether to commit to a lame-duck coach. The Gators sit at No. 51 in the recruiting rankings with only 11 commitments, per 247Sports. Only three players sit in the Top247. The message gives Napier’s staff time to collect itself.
Con: The on-field results, obviously
Napier has been a disappointing on-field coach, but the results are perhaps even worse than people realize. The last Florida coach to start his tenure with three straight losing seasons was Josh Cody from 1936-38. With three games against ranked opponents remaining, Napier will likely join him soon.
Since beating No. 7 Utah in his first game, Florida is 1-12 against ranked opponents with Napier at the helm. He is 0-5 against rivals Florida State and Georgia with the losses coming by an average of 15 points per game. By the way, the best way for this vote of confidence to quickly dissipate is to lose against 1-8 Florida State.
Pro: The replacements are limited
The quality of coaching candidates for openings has quietly gotten underwhelming in recent years, especially as Nick Saban’s tenure came to a close. Out of the top five teams in the College Football Playoff Rankings, four were assistants with major pedigree and the other is Mario Cristobal, who came from Oregon.
There really aren’t many major standout coordinators in the SEC to hand the keys to, and Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is the only ready-made SEC coaching candidate in the Group of Five. Florida has been tied with Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin and Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz, but both have put together slightly disappointing seasons. That doesn’t even get into whether those coaches are gettable.
With so much uncertainty about improving on Napier, kicking the can down the road makes some sense.
Con: The potential downside is vast
Florida picked one of the worst times in college football history to collapse. The expanded SEC and College Football Playoff will lead to a mass reorganization of the sport, one that could set the table for years. If Florida bottoms out, trying to create a competitive roster and attract talent to Gainesville will be substantially more difficult.
Florida isn’t the only program going through this. Auburn sits at 3-6 and similarly has not posted consecutive losing seasons since the Korean War. Oklahoma is 1-4 in SEC play and could miss a bowl for the first time since 1998. The new SEC is a dangerous place. Digging out of program holes will be substantially more difficult.
Pro: Stability is important at this moment
While Florida is the biggest program with a hot seat coach, athletic departments around the sport are going through this same calculus. Napier joined Arkansas coach Sam Pittman and Baylor coach Dave Aranda as those on the hottest seats going into 2024. Now, all three could be back in 2025.
Perhaps the most under-discussed reason for this change could be the impending House v. NCAA lawsuit going into effect. When that happens in 2025, teams will suddenly have a new line item on their budgets of more than $20 million. With that in mind, spending $26 million on a buyout becomes a far riskier proposition, especially when that money could be spent on players.
Additionally, having to rebuild an organization at this moment will be wildly unattractive. The past four years brought some of the most instability in the history of college football. If an athletic department feels that they have a good coach who found themselves in bad situations because of national factors, why rush?
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