Week 1 of the NFL season started with a bad beat for over bettors, as the Philadelphia Eagles (-8) beat the Dallas Cowboys 24-20 on Thursday night, but the game stayed under the total of 47.5 — despite 41 first-half points.
What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?
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Our NFL handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng and Michael Fiddle combine to give their Week 1 NFL best bets. This file will be updated throughout the weekend.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Friday
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 47) in Brazil
Feng: Herbert has had an incredible 1.3% interception rate over the past three seasons, much better than the 2.2% NFL average. However, interception rate is not a good way to predict future interceptions. The market expects Herbert to throw a lot against Kansas City (33 attempts) on Friday night, and this feeds my model that gives him a 52% chance to throw a pick. Since we’re getting +106 odds here — implies a 48.5% break even probability — it’s worth a wager.
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Bet: Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+106)
[Full Chiefs-Chargers betting guide from Michael Fiddle]
Sunday
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2, 47)
Fiddle: The best way to play the Micah Parsons trade news is simply playing the Lions against the spread and on the money line for their Week 1 game against the Packers.
After the Parsons trade, this line jumped from Packers -1.5 to -2.5 — I can’t justify Parsons being worth a full point ATS, especially when he missed all of training camp with a lingering contract hold out and a back injury. The line movement at the time made sense, as Packers money was flooding the market on the news of the trade and sportsbooks were taking asymmetric bet types all backing Green Bay.
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But come Sunday morning, resistance will come in, and I believe this line will close at Lions +2 or even back at +1.5. Take the Lions now and grab the value fading the trade narrative.
I split up a unit on this game with .75 units on the spread and .25 units on the money line. The number two has become more important over the last few years, mainly by teams that frequently go for 2-point conversions and go for it on fourth down instead of kicking field goals; the Lions are certainly one of those teams where a +2.5 may make a difference.
Bet: Lions +2.5 and ML +118
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38.5) at New York Jets
Fiddle: This game features two quarterbacks facing their teams from last year. While headlines will point towards revenge games and get-back mindsets, the simple truth is the opposing defenses have practiced against these quarterbacks for an entire season. They know strengths, weaknesses, tendencies and more.
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The Jets project to be incredibly run heavy, the Steelers are thin at wide receiver after DK Metcalf. Aaron Rodgers passing yards prop has already moved almost 10 yards to the under, down to 202.5 now. This game has the lowest total of any Week 1 matchup, and I think taking the first half under is the best approach. Rodgers and Fields both ranked in the 20s in quarterback accuracy last season. I expect a field position and physical battle to occur, especially early on.
Bet: Steelers-Jets 1H under 19 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 47.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Craig: The first look at Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. fully behind the wheel in Atlanta has brought a wave of optimism — and plenty of futures money on the Falcons. But while the offseason chatter has centered on ceiling outcomes, my focus is on tempo and how Penix Jr. changes the scoring profile. The QB’s ability to extend plays and create secondary reads opens up layers of flexibility for this backfield, especially when paired with the Falcons’ young, explosive skill position talent. Atlanta’s offensive structure looks much less static with him under center, and with the Bucs being a plenty suitable dance partner for high-scoring contests, I like this matchup’s total.
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Bet: Falcons–Bucs Over 46.5
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-8.5, 42.5)
Feng: No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward gets the worst possible matchup against a Denver defense that was elite last season. Now, the Broncos added first-round pick Jahdae Barron at CB to an already loaded secondary. Pass-rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper might regress from the 28 total sacks from 2024, but this duo will still cause havoc this season.
My NFL model has Denver by 10.3 points. While I don’t like to bet huge favorites, this is a good spot against the rookie QB Ward in his first start at Mile High.
Bet: Broncos -8.5
Monday
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 43.5) at Chicago Bears
Craig: This NFC North clash brings plenty of intrigue with two young quarterbacks taking center stage. Caleb Williams enters his sophomore campaign after an up-and-down rookie season that left more questions than answers in Chicago. Across the field, Minnesota hands the keys to J.J. McCarthy, who has been the subject of offseason hype after the Vikings let Sam Darnold walk following a surprising 14–3 season.
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While the narrative will focus on McCarthy’s arm, the real edge might come from his legs. Too many are overlooking his athletic profile — McCarthy clocked a 4.48 in the 40-yard dash at the 2024 NFL Combine. Pair that speed with a top-10 offensive line, and he should have plenty of clean pockets, giving him time to work through progressions and the option to take off when lanes open.
Bet: J.J. McCarthy over 3.5 rushing attempts (-106)
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