We wrap up the Florida Swing this week with the 2026 Valspar Championship. We were happy to see Cameron Young get his signature victory at The Players, but it selfishly hurt a lot of our experts, as we’ve been betting him outright for the past three years. Back to the well to hit a winner.
This week, a lot of have Brooks Koepka on our card in some form. Our Christopher Powers loved what he saw while on the grounds last week at TPC Sawgrass—and a bunch of our handicappers have him as a matchup bet. It’s great to be able to bet Koepka on the PGA Tour again.
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The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Valspar Championship:
Read The Line’s Joe Idone and John Haslbauer make the case for a Brooks Koepka win at the Valspar:
Watch the full Preferred Lines betting show powered by Read The Line.
Valspar Championship picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Jordan Spieth (28-1, Bet365) — The driver has started to falter after two straight years of it becoming the best part of Spieth’s game. That’s OK, though. At least this week. With Copperhead being a less than driver track, Spieth needs to rely on his irons, chipping and putting, all of which have been spiking over the last six weeks.
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Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Nicolai Hojgaard (36-1, DraftKings) — I’m excited about this pick. More excited than Morikawa at The Players, in hindsight, yes! Nicolai Højgaard has been quietly playing some really solid golf. Højgaard lost strokes with his driver due to one bad round at TPC Sawgrass and still finished in the top 30. Prior to Ponte Vedra, Nicolai finished top six in three of his five starts. The ball-striking and putter are both really good, and he has a secret weapon. Højgaard is ranked third in the field for par-3 scoring. With five of those to play per round on the Copperhead Course, that’s an edge most will miss.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Akshay Bhatia (20-1, Bet365) — Bhatia, who led the field in ball-striking last week at Sawgrass, sits atop my model this week. Bhatia is checking the boxes on everything that matters at Copperhead. He’s top five in the majority of the metrics I’m leveraging here, including strokes gained/total in difficult scoring conditions, ball-striking when it’s difficult to gain and approach play on corollary courses. To go along with his strong recent form, Bhatia is an elite putter on Poa Trivialis greens, and the best putters in last year’s field finished near the top of the leader board.
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Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Sahith Theegala (37-1, DraftKings) — We’ve seen flashes of the uber-talented player we came to know in 2024. This is a great venue for him, as driver will be taken out of his hands, which is his biggest liability. The irons have been scorching hot—gaining over a stroke per round over the past two events. With a T-7 here in 2024, I think we see Theegala contending once again for a trophy.
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Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Brooks Koepka (26-1, DraftKings) — If I were you, and I’m talking to you, Tom & Marty’s, I’d get very used to seeing this man’s name next to mine in this space. I saw all I needed to see out of him with my own two eyes at TPC Sawgrass this past week. If not for a 30-minute lapse in focus on Friday afternoon, he would have been in the thick of it on Sunday. Approach game is very strong, he still hits it a mile and the putter is slowly coming back. Valspar always provides a tough challenge and a high winning total, a style he loves. I’m betting on the Koepka comeback win until it happens, which feels soon.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: J.J. Spaun (33-1, Bet365) — J.J. Spaun showed some serious flashes last week with a top-25 finish at the Players Championship, where he gained 1.2 strokes off the tee and 4.8 strokes on approach. Now Spaun returns to a golf course that should highlight his accuracy off the tee and short-game prowess.
Past results: We have our SECOND winner of 2026, with Ryan Noonan hitting his first-ever outright as a member of the panel, correctly predicting Nico Echavarria’s win at the Cognizant Classic at 60-1. That makes two 60-1 hits for our panel this year, with Stephen Hennessey nailing Justin Rose’s Farmers win at 60-1, too.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (above) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
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Valspar Championship picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Max Homa (69-1, DraftKings) — Obviously, Homa’s not at the level of a few years back, but there are signs of those peaks returning. He’s not driving it out of bounds every three holes. That’s a positive. His irons were hot last week, and now he’s gained on the greens in eight of nine starts. The birdies will be there, if he can just curb his addiction to squares on the scorecard, he’s live at his number.
Noonan: David Ford (125-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The former top-ranked amateur will be comfortable playing on a narrow, undulating track lined with pine straw after playing collegiately at UNC. Ford’s profile to date since turning pro is one of exceptional skills off the tee, with above-average distance and accuracy, and elite short to mid-iron play. Being out of position off the tee is a non-starter at Copperhead, so I think Ford will be able to pick and choose his spots when he can take the clubhead cover off and send it, since he’s able to do so without sacrificing his accuracy at all.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (70-1, Bet365) — C-Bez is at his best when he doesn’t need to hit driver and let his irons and putter carry him. He’s top 20 in this field in approaches from 175-plus yards, where over 50 percent of approaches come from. He’s also top 10 in SG/around the green and 11th in bonus putting. That’s a combo that could boost the South African to his first PGA Tour win.
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Powers, Golf Digest: Austin Smotherman (50-1, BetMGM) — You need DOGs when it comes to approach this week, hence why I bet Koepka, who ranks third on tour right now in SG/approach. You know who is first? Austin Smotherman, one spot ahead of Collin Morikawa with only one less measured round. In the three starts he’s made the weekend in this year, Smotherman has gone T-8 (AMEX), T-2 (Cognizant) and T-13 (Players).
Lack: Bud Cauley (80-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Bud Cauley was my pick to win at this tournament last year, and I have no reason to believe that he won’t compete again here. Cauley is coming off a 32nd-place finish at the Players where he gained 1.8 strokes on approach and 3.9 strokes around the green. That combination of solid iron play and short game is a proven method of success at Copperhead.
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Valspar Championship picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Corey Conners (22-1, Bet365) — The ball-striking is certainly there. Per usual. But on a course with such a low GIR rate, eventually you’ll be forced to chip and putt. Not being able to do one of those hasn’t been an issue over the years, but being bad in both areas? Death to winning.
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Stewart: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, FanDuel) — At the start of The Players, Patrick Cantlay was listed at +7000 on the odds board. 70-1! Cantlay’s competitive fall has happened quite quickly, and it’s difficult to point to one part of Patrick’s game as the culprit. Since AT&T, Cantlay has not finished better than T-32 with an MC mixed in across three starts. The putter and the irons have not been Cantlay consistent to say the least. Two very important skills at the Valspar, therefore I’ll wait a while, especially at this number.
Noonan: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, FanDuel) — Patrick Cantlay has now lost strokes on approach in three straight events. He’s also really struggling with his putter right now, and per Betsperts Golf, he’s lost an average of 0.4 strokes per round putting on Poa trivialis greens over the past 12 months. There’s just no appeal here, given his prices in the outright market or in DFS.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, FanDuel) — Noonan made the point perfectly above.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, FanDuel) — Cantlay’s hitting the ball fine and has played well here over the years. But I can’t think of a bet at the top of the board I’d be less confident in than Cantlay at 20-1.
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Lack: Jacob Bridgeman (20-1, FanDuel) — Jacob Bridgeman is playing some incredible golf at the moment, but he remains buoyed entirely by the putter. He lost strokes in both ball-striking categories at the Players, and I’ll take my chances that we see some regression with the flat-stick.
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Valspar Championship picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Brooks Koepka (+110) over Patrick Cantlay (Coolbet) — After gaining +8.17 SG/ball-sriking at Sawgrass, that’s three elite ball-striking performances in four starts for Brooks. Eventually, the putter is going to stabilize. Hopefully it’s this week. Even if it isn’t, it’s been good enough to beat this version of Cantlay.
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Stewart: Brooks Koepka (-110) over Ben Griffin (BetMGM) — Ben Griffin has lost his driver. Since his win in Mexico, Griffin has had one top 20, and his last two starts ended with a missed cut. Brooks Koepka’s ball-striking has been on point since the fall in Europe. I know the putter has been cold, but everything else is clicking to the tune of a T-9 at Cognizant and a T-13 at The Players. Tail this H2H and collect the ticket on Friday night.
Noonan: Ryo Hisatsune (-137) over Taylor Pendrith (FanDuel) — Pendrith couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat right now. He has also really struggled with his long irons, and with 55 percent of approach shots coming from 175+ this week, that’s going to be an issue. Hisatsune finished T-13 at last week’s Players, finishing second to Matt Fitzpatrick in SG: T2G at 2.69 strokes per round. Hisatsune is teeing it up every week, and that was his fourth T15 or better finish in the best six weeks.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Brooks Koepka (+110) over Patrick Cantlay (Coolbet) — This one is a smash spot—talk to your Canadian friends to get this one down!
Powers, Golf Digest: Brooks Koepka (-120) over J.J. Spaun (Bet365) — J.J. Spaun did seem to have found something last week at Sawgrass, resulting in his first top 25 this year. But Koepka, in my opinion, is close to exploding, while Spaun still has a lot to clean up.
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Lack: Matt Fitzpatrick (-150) over Jacob Bridgeman (Southpoint) — I’m simply going with who I believe to be the far better and stable player here in Matt Fitzpatrick. Both Jacob Bridgeman and Fitzpatrick are great putters, but Fitzpatrick is the far superior ball-striker.
Matchup Results from the Players Championship: Powers: 1 for 1 (Fowler (-110) over Lowry); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Pendrith (+105) over Bezuidenhout); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Scott (-112) over Griffin); Noonan: 1 for 1 (Straka (-134) over Koepka); Lack: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 7-2-0 (up 4.38 units); Mayo: 6-3-0 (up 3.31 units); Lack: 6-2-1 (up 3.09 units); Stewart: 5-2-1 (up 2.35 units); Noonan: 4-4-1 (down 0.77 units); Hennessey: 4-5-0 (down 1.45 units)
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Valspar Championship picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Ryo Hisatsune (+340, FanDuel) — Hisatsune very quietly snuck up to T-13 at The Players and finished eighth in the field in ball-striking. He’s top 10 in the field in total driving, already has three top 10s in 2026 and finished T-4 here a year ago. Just needs to warm his putter back up.
Stewart: Jacob Bridgeman (+230, FanDuel) — The world continues to think Jacob Bridgeman’s run will end, and it doesn’t. Once the ACC Player of the Year and PGA Tour U grad, maybe Bridgeman is just that good! In seven starts this season, Jacob has a win (Genesis), four top 10s and no finish worse than T-18. Bridgeman finished third at Innisbrook last year. If the fantastic play is going to end, I don’t see it at a course where Bridgeman has proven he is comfortable.
Noonan: Jacob Bridgeman (+230, FanDuel) — Speaking of elite putters in great current form, Jacob Bridgeman is in a tier of his own right now. His lead-in form to his win at Riviera was terrific, and he hasn’t skipped a beat since. Bridgeman finished T-5 at last week’s Players, and very easily could’ve been in the mix late on Sunday if not for a mistimed water ball or two on the 16th. Bridgeman was terrific off the tee last week, gaining an average of 0.77 strokes per round, with above-average marks in accuracy and distance from the edge of the fairway. He’s very live to win again.
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Hennessey, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (+800, Bet365) — Glover loves Innisbrook and his middle and long irons are humming. It’s the perfect spot for him to grab a strong finish.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (+380, FanDuel) — Despite his off-the-tee play remaining as heinous as ever at Sawgrass, the iron play was so good in Rounds 2 and 4 that I’m willing to overlook the erratic driver and take a chance here.
Lack: Nick Taylor (+500, Bet365) — Nick Taylor is one of my favorite players to bet because while not always the most consistent player, he always possesses the upside to contend. The Canadian is coming off a 42nd at the Players where he gained 1.9 strokes on approach and 4.5 strokes around the green, a formula that should play beautifully at the Valspar.
Top-10 results from the Players Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Sepp Straka +495); Everybody else: 0 for 1
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Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 4 for 9 (up 13.65 units); Noonan: 3 for 9 (up 5.6 units); Stewart: 2 for 9 (down 0.35 units); Powers: 2 for 9 (down 0.5 units); Lack: 1 for 9 (down 2 units); Hennessey: 0 for 9 (down 9 units)
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About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry’s best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
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