When USC played its first game as a member of the Big Ten against Michigan last season, the Trojans got a not-so-friendly welcome to the “big boy” brand of football that teams from the conference played.
After USC took a 24-20 lead in the fourth quarter against the reigning national champions on the road, the Trojans allowed Michigan to go on a 10-play, 89-yard drive that was capped with a 1-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-goal by Kalel Mullings with 37 seconds left in an eventual 27-24 loss.
That loss wasn’t backbreaking at the time, but it was the start of a trend of games that got away from USC. The Trojans led at some point in the fourth quarter in 11 of their 12 regular-season games, with the lone exception coming against Notre Dame in the season finale. Even then, USC had a chance to tie the game late.
This year, Lincoln Riley’s USC squad is off to a 4-0 start this season and climbed to No. 21 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Two of those wins (Purdue and Michigan State) have come against Big Ten competition, but the schedule is about to get significantly tougher with three consecutive games against ranked teams. It starts on Saturday against No. 23 Illinois on the road, where USC is currently a 7.5-point favorite.
After playing Illinois on the road, USC has a bye week before hosting No. 19 Michigan on Oct. 11. To close out the month of October, USC will travel to South Bend, Indiana, to face No. 22 Notre Dame — a team that handed the Trojans their first loss in 2023, starting a slide that knocked the Trojans out of CFP contention.
Riley’s teams have limped to the finish line
In 2021, USC made a splash by hiring away Lincoln Riley from his post at Oklahoma. The move was designed to elevate the program back to national relevance. Under former coach Clay Helton, USC missed out on bowl eligibility in two of his final four seasons before hiring Riley as his eventual replacement.
Riley’s teams have tended to start fast before falling. In his first season in 2022, USC was 6-0 before losing to Utah on the road. USC had a chance at redemption against the Utes in the Pac-12 title game, but fell short. To cap off that season, the Trojans blew a double-digit lead in the Cotton Bowl to Tulane.
In 2023, USC once again started 6-0, but there were signs that the foundation was shaky. The Trojans looked lackluster during a triple-overtime win over Arizona before losing five of their last six regular-season games.
Last season, USC started 2-0 before a midseason slump hat included losses to Minnesota, Penn State, Maryland, and Washington — all of which were decided by one possession.
Riley’s late-season bet set USC up for success in 2025
Toward the end of last season, Riley had to make a tough decision: continue to start Miller Moss at quarterback or turn to UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava? Riley’s calculated decision to turn to Maiava appears to be the right one. Moss ended up transferring to Louisville this past offseason, while Maiava remained with the coach who has been labeled as a “quarterback whisperer.”
Through the first four games, Maiava has thrown for 1,223 yards and nine touchdowns (with zero interceptions). He has been taken out of the game on multiple occasions already because his team built such a large lead. As for Moss, he has thrown for 690 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions for 3-0 Louisville.
Maiava was a star during his freshman season at UNLV, but the transfer to USC was a big jump. The four starts Maiava made last season were a mixed bag, as he threw for 11 touchdowns with six interceptions. In USC’s win over Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl, he finished 22 of 39 for 295 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions.
Turnovers were certainly an issue last season for Maiava, but they’re baked into his play style. He’s not afraid to take risks, but for USC to be at its best, Maiava has to temper his gunslinger mentality and care of the football. It also helps that USC has one of the best wide receiver duos in the sport, with Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon both projected to play on Sundays in the near future.
USC’s defense (against mediocre competion) has also been better. The Trojans are allowing 304 yards per game, which ranks No. 41 among all FBS teams. For context, USC finished No. 77 in the FBS (377.1 yards per game) last season.
What does USC have to do to get into the CFP?
With a schedule that currently includes four ranked opponents, USC will likely have to finish with 10 wins — depending on how the rest of the field shakes out — to have a strong chance of getting in. The Trojans have a meeting down the stretch against Oregon but don’t face reigning national champion Ohio State or No. 3 Penn State.
The Trojans could play either of those teams in the Big Ten title game — if they make it that far.
USC has all the pieces in place to make a serious run at the CFP. The next stretch of games is a defining moment for Riley’s tenure. A 2-1 stretch during USC’s next three games — with the game against Michigan being the most important on paper — will put the Trojans in position to advance to the CFP for the first time in program history.
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