The U.S. Open rolls on, and it gets a little more interesting with every round.
As the field gets smaller, the pressure heightens, and the lines get sharper. But there are still opportunities to find value if you know where to look.
For each round of the men’s singles tournament, we’ll break down our favorite moneyline bet, spread, over/under and underdog for each round.
Check back before every round for updated picks, odds, and my best bets as we get closer to crowning a champion at Flushing Meadows. Plus, new users can bet $5 on on any US Open market and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Best US Open men’s second-round bets
Best moneyline bet
Mariano Navone deserves plenty of credit for knocking out Novak Djokovic, but I’m not chasing the upset here. Navone needed five sets to pull it off, while Matteo Berrettini cruised past Stan Wawrinka in straight sets and got progressively better as the match went along. Berrettini won two tiebreaks before taking the third set 6-0.
That is exactly the type of performance I wanted to see from Berrettini. As matches get longer, he’s tended to wear down. He’s fresh coming into this against Navone. His serve gives him a major advantage on these courts, and he should be able to dictate far more points than Djokovic did against Navone. I’m willing to lay the -202.
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Best spread bet
Ben Shelton eventually figured things out against Tallon Griekspoor, but that first set was ugly. He lost it 6-1 before recovering to win in four, and now he gets a much more dangerous opponent in Hubert Hurkacz. Hurkacz also won his opener in four sets and looked much more comfortable after splitting the first two.
Shelton can absolutely win this match, but I don’t think he wins this 3-0 or 3-1. There should be a fair amount of tiebreakers in this match. Giving +1.5 some value.
Best over/under bet
Neither player made life easy on himself in the opening round. Frances Tiafoe needed five sets and nearly four hours to get past Martin Damm, while Rei Sakamoto also survived a five-setter against Aleksandar Vukic after coming through qualifying.
That makes 37.5 games feel a little low. Tiafoe is clearly the better player, but he has a habit of letting opponents hang around, and Sakamoto has already shown he can survive long matches.
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Best underdog bet
Stefanos Tsitsipas deserves credit for beating Arthur Fils in the first round, especially after entering the match 0-5 against him. Still, I’m not ready to suddenly treat Tsitsipas like a player who should be laying this kind of price on a hard court.
Lloyd Harris is playing with confidence. He won three qualifying matches to reach the main draw and then handled Jack Kennedy in straight sets, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2. Harris has the serve and power to keep Tsitsipas under pressure. It’s a tough task to keep winning for Harris, but I’m fine with fading Tsitsipas.
Where to bet on the U.S. Open
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Who will win the US Open?
Alexander Zverev is my pick to win the U.S. Open because the draw gives him a legitimate path to the final without having to go through Carlos Alcaraz. His serve and ability to handle long best-of-five matches make him difficult to beat on hard courts, and his side of the bracket is much cleaner than Alcaraz’s. At +300, Zverev has the combination of form, draw and price I want at the top of the board.
US Open betting strategies
Grand Slam tennis is different from betting a standard ATP event because men’s matches are best-of-five sets. That creates more room for momentum swings, longer matches and live-betting opportunities. I try not to overreact to one bad set, especially when backing a favorite with a strong serve who can settle into the match.
I also pay close attention to fatigue as the tournament moves along. A player coming off back-to-back five-set matches can be a much different bet than someone who has cruised through the first few rounds. That matters for spreads, totals and even live markets.
Finally, shop around before placing a bet. Tennis odds can vary quite a bit between sportsbooks, especially on game spreads and totals. Getting an extra half-game or a better moneyline price can make a big difference over the course of the tournament.
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