Evaluating quarterbacks has never been harder. College numbers lie, and the NFL game chews up prospects faster than ever. For every Burrow or Stroud who makes the jump clean, there are dozens who light up Saturdays but can’t survive Sundays. Size, scheme, toughness, decision-making — it all matters, but plenty of times it comes down to instincts you can’t measure. The gap between a Day 3 pick and a camp body is razor thin.
This year, a handful of guys who don’t exactly scream “prototype NFL QB” are giving scouts something to think about. Transfers, journeymen, system kids — are they just the classic “awesome college QB who won’t play in the NFL?” or do we need to rethink that logic on the heels of Dillon Gabriel being a Day 2 NFL pick (and newly minted QB1 in Cleveland) and a more general acceptance from the NFL level in the type of college QB who years ago probably weren’t legit draft prospects.
College Football QB Power Rankings: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia on the rise
David Cobb
Here’s where this year’s group of “awesome college QBs who don’t look like NFL guys” realistically stand as next-level prospects.
Draft Projection: Day 3
Chambliss came over from Ferris State without much fanfare. He wasn’t supposed to play, but Austin Simmons’ injury shoved him into the spotlight. All he’s done since: keep Ole Miss afloat. He’s undersized (6-feet, 200), but the kid competes. Completing 64% with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio, plus 260 rushing yards. His LSU tape was the eye-opener — calm, decisive, didn’t blink. He’s never going to be a prototype, but in the right system he can hang. Think Tyrod Taylor-lite: tough, resourceful, a guy who sticks around.
Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA
King’s been a rollercoaster since his days at Texas A&M. Now he’s running around for Georgia Tech, putting together an undefeated start. He’s completing 68%, tossed a few scores, and racked up 380 yards and seven TDs on the ground. At 6-3, 215, the frame and athleticism jump out. The arm? Not as much. Feels like one of those “what else can he play?” prospects — maybe a slash role, maybe a project tight end. Scouts will argue about it. Best guess: UDFA who gets a camp look because somebody falls in love with the tools.
Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA
If you like grinders, Pavia’s your guy. The second-year New Mexico State transfer is now at Vanderbilt, suddenly throwing darts at a 74% clip. He processes fast, plays fearless, and makes things happen when the play breaks down. Problem is, he’ll be 25 years old by draft time, and the frame isn’t ideal. Trace McSorley (one NFL start), John Wolford (four) are realistic comparisons. Gritty, smart, can help a team, but not built for a long runway. He’ll get a shot, but late Day 3 or UDFA is his reality.
Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA
Aguilar screams Josh Heupel QB: tempo, vertical shots, and stat sheets that pop. The App State transfer has 13 TDs on 65% passing, pushing nine yards per attempt. At 6-3, 225, he’s got the frame, though he’s not much of a runner. The big question: is it him, or is it the system? Scouts have been burned on the veer-and-shoot archetype before, most recently in Hendon Hooker. Right now, Aguilar looks like a backup who’s worth a late pick. Maybe you stash and see if he can function outside the scheme on the practice squad.
Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA
Kaliakmanis won’t wow you, but he won’t lose you games either. Since leaving Minnesota for Rutgers, he’s completed 67% for nearly 1,400 yards with a clean 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Average arm, average athleticism, but he knows who he is. Gets the ball out on time, makes smart reads, doesn’t overextend.
The “Greek Rifle” is in the Nick Mullens bucket as steady backup material. Not flashy, but teams like guys they can trust in a pinch.
Kevin Jennings, SMU: Twitchy wild card with juice
Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA
Jennings is the gambler’s pick. Just 6-feet and 192 pounds, but he’s completing 68%, throwing for over 1,100 and nine scores with a twitchy release and juice all over his tape. He’s raw: accuracy wavers, decisions get risky (as we saw in the College Football Playoff vs. Penn State), and the run game production hasn’t matched his elusiveness yet. But the flashes pop. Stick around another year, and he could climb into the middle rounds. For now? He’s a late Day 3 flyer with a chance to surprise.
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