Yan Xiaonan vs Tabatha Ricci has all the makings of a binary striker vs grappler matchup. Although Ricci possesses a modicum of skill as a point striker, her best martial art is Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Her foe, Yan Xiaonan, brings a kickboxing background to this showdown and has shown severe defensive grappling liabilities in the past. In 2021 she was one fight away from a title shot when she gave Carla Esparza her first finish since 2014, as the former champ dominated Xiaonan on the mat.
Yan showed improvements when she survived MacKenzie Dern’s submission attacks two fights later, but Dern’s wrestling is poor unlike champion Zhang Weili. Weili battered her countrywoman on the ground and almost finished Xiaonan with a submission and ground strikes.
Ricci is not half as athletic as Weili, nor as good a wrestler. What she is, is careful, methodical, and a good grappler. She mainly gets judo-style takedowns from the clinch and will need to push her foe to the fence to get the fight to the ground. Yet once there, Xiaonan is woeful at getting to her feet.
If the Chinese kickboxing specialist is able to stay vigilant about her cage positioning and use good cage-craft to stay off the fence, she should be able to win a decision. Ricci is smart defensively. However, one lapse in concentration which ends with her on her back could lose her an entire round. It is slim margins when that happening twice could mean game over; having a decent get-up game is crucial to being an elite mixed martial artist.
As a result, I am picking Tabatha Ricci to win. The Brazilian may be much slighter at 5’1” than her opponent, but her skills match up perfectly in this one for her to get a win as an underdog, in enemy territory, no less.
If Ricci gets it done, a win against a recent title challenger will propel her into title contention, earned through winning her last two and six of seven coming into this co-main event opportunity.
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