Tom Aspinall just became the UFC heavyweight champion. He looks to keep the belt when he defends against Ciryl Gane at UFC 321 on October 25 in Abu Dhabi.
Aspinall (15-3) won interim gold in 2023 and patiently waited to face then-champion Jon Jones. Once Jones retired, Aspinall became the full-time champion.
Gane (13-2) lasted less than one round against Jones before tapping out for heavyweight gold in 2023. The former interim champion has been out of action for a bit, but has won two straight.
The co-main event will see Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern compete for the UFC strawweight title. The title became vacant after Zhang Weili vacated the belt to fight Valentina Shevchenko.
UFC 321 will also see Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista in an important bantamweight fight, Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida in a clash of talented heavyweights, and an intriguing matchup in Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire main card of UFC 321.
UFC 321 expert picks and main card predictions
Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Ciryl Gane for the UFC heavyweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Tom Aspinall is the -400 favorite, while Ciryl Gane is the +300 underdog.
Aspinall lands 8.07 significant strikes per minute and has a 67% strike accuracy mark. He averages 3.27 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Gane lands 5.26 significant strikes, has a 61% strike accuracy mark, and averages 0.70 takedowns landed.
At this stage in his career, Aspinall has dangerous speed, striking power, and ground skills. He lands for volume, which is part of the reason he owns the record for the shortest average fight time in UFC history. The lack of tape can help him against Gane. Is his BJJ and wrestling that good, especially against Gane?
While Gane has fought infrequently and the taste of the loss against Jon Jones left his status as a fighter sour in the minds of many, he’s still a threat. The French fighter can strike at close range, and, if in the right frame of mind, can control the pace.
Aspinall has to prove he’s worthy of being champion. Gane has to prove he deserves to be in the title picture, especially following a controversial win against Alexander Volkov. Aspinall claims the fight will go the distance, but The Sporting News believes he will do whatever it takes to take Gane out and cement his legacy.
Sporting News prediction: Aspinall via TKO (round two)
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern for the UFC strawweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Mackenzie Dern is the -150 favorite, while Virna Jandiroba is the +122 underdog.
Dern lands 3.31 significant strikes per minute and has a 40% strike accuracy mark. The multi-time BJJ and submission grappling world champion averages 0.89 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Jandiroba lands 1.97 significant strikes and averages 2.37 takedowns landed.
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When they fought in 2020, Dern landed 82 significant strikes, while Jandiroba landed 63 (both had a 47% strike accuracy mark). Dern didn’t land a takedown, but her opponent landed one. Jandiroba lost via decision.
Both can nullify the other at the takedown position. Dern is world-class at what she does, but can she force Jandiroba to surrender? While on the feet, Dern is known to swing wildly, which could help Jandiroba. If Jandiroba’s stamina can last past the first two rounds, she should be able to get the win this time and secure gold.
Sporting News prediction: Jandiroba via unanimous decision
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista; Bantamweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Umar Nurmagomedov is the -650 favorite, while Mario Bautista is the +440 underdog.
Bautista lands 6.13 significant strikes per minute, landing 334 in his last three fights. He also averages 1.67 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov lands 4.38 significant strikes and averages 3.26 takedowns landed. He’s a dual-threat that looks to return to being a title contender.
It would be easier to see how Bautista could handle being on the floor with Nurmagomedov if it were a five-round affair. Nurmagomedov can damage an opponent with ease. However, Bautista stuffed Ricky Simon’s wrestling and impressed against Jose Aldo and Patchy Mix. He wants to hold gold next and may exploit a few weaknesses of Nurmagomedov. The Sporting News likes the underdog here.
Sporting News prediction: Bautista via split decision
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida; Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Jailton Almeida is the -205 favorite, while Alexander Volkov is the +164 underdog.
Volkov lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 0.61 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Almeida is dominant in the latter stat, averaging 6.58 takedowns. He landed nine against Curtis Blaydes and six against Derrick Lewis.
It could be easily argued that Volkov beat Ciryl Gane when they fought, but the judges gave the fight to the latter. Volkov looks to leave no doubt this time. Almeida is a fantastic wrestler, but he can get too comfortable, as seen in his fight against Blaydes when he got taken out. If Volkov can avoid takedowns (72% takedown defense mark) and efficiently jab away at Almeida with his long reach, he should be able to get the win.
Sporting News prediction: Volkov via TKO (round two)
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov; Light Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Azamat Murzakanov is the -122 favorite, while Aleksandar Rakic is the -108 underdog.
Murzakanov lands 4.93 significant strikes per minute, while Rakic lands 4.16. Rakic averages a higher takedown landed per 15 minute mark, while Murzakanov is much more accurate with his strikes.
Rakic has been knocked out twice in three fights, but the odds give him a good shot in this contest. That’s because he’s faced high-level opponents compared to Murzakanov, who only competes once a year. Though he’s had some rough luck as of late, Rakic can push Murzakanov back, use his reach, and can easily tire Murzakanov for the small “upset.”
Sporting News prediction: Rakic via unanimous decision
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