Alex Pereira attempts to return to the top of the mountain when he faces Magomed Ankalaev in a rematch at UFC 320 on October 4 for the UFC light heavyweight title.
Pereira (12-3) was one of the most dominant champions in UFC history until Ankalaev (20-1-1 1 NC) dethroned him at UFC 313. The loss ended a five-fight win streak for Pereira that featured four finishes.
Ankalaev (20-1-1 1 NC) has not lost a fight since 2018. The Russian attempts to be the first fighter to win two straight against the mighty Pereira.
UFC 320 will also see Merab Dvalishvili defend the UFC bantamweight title against Cory Sandhagen. Meanwhile, Jiri Prochazka and Joe Pyfer return to action, while former Bellator champion Patchy Mix looks for his first win in the octagon.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 320.
UFC 320 Main Event Prediction: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Magomed Ankalaev (c) vs. Alex Pereira 2 for the UFC light heavyweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Magomed Ankalaev is the -250 favorite, while Alex Pereira is the +198 underdog.
A striking machine, Pereira lands 5.00 significant strikes per minute and has a 78% takedown defense mark. Ankalaev lands 3.66 significant strikes and averages 0.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Pereira stuffed twelve takedown attempts in the first fight, but got outstruck by Ankalaev.
Pereira was the favorite last time out. Once again, the contest features a unique mix of styles. Ankalaev, as a southpaw, can make things interesting, and he’s known for providing pressure. If the Pereira of old shows up, he can maintain a solid distance and land a decisive knockout win.
At 38, can Pereira turn back the clock?
Ankalaev is considered the boogeyman. While he didn’t get fully exposed at UFC 313, Pereira’s glory days may be behind him. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have any more knockout power. If Pereira can hold off Ankalaev early, redemption is right around the corner. It will have to be early and quick. Otherwise, Ankalaev can easily retain.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via KO (round two)
Co-main event betting picks & odds
Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Cory Sandhagen for the UFC bantamweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Merab Dvalishvili is the -420 favorite, while Cory Sandhagen is the +310 underdog.
Dvalishvili lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute. “The Machine” is just that on the floor, as he averages 5.84 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He has landed 34 in his last five fights. Sandhagen lands 5.06 significant strikes and averages 1.28 takedowns landed.
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Sandhagen is talented and can use jiu-jitsu to set the tone. However, it’s scary to think Dvalishvili keeps on getting better with each fight. Nobody has proven they have what it takes to truly take the champion down. Can Sandhagen avoid Dvalishvili’s elite wrestling, similar to what he did against Deiveson Figueiredo?
When Dvalishvili is on, he’s a monster. Sandhagen may give a valiant effort, but, like Thanos, Dvalishvili is inevitable.
Sporting News prediction: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision
UFC 320 full fight card predictions
Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.; Light Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Jiri Prochazka is the -196 favorite, while Khalil Rountree Jr. is the +158 underdog.
Prochazka lands 5.74 significant strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 5.70 strikes. He has one of the most unique offenses in MMA history. Rountree lands 3.79 significant strikes and absorbs 4.24.
Rountree is a sharp striker, but Prochazka’s unorthodox style has proven to hurt the opposition. The former can either strike when the iron’s hot or will play it safe. It seems unlikely the latter will happen. Prochazka’s reach advantage could help force Rountree back and hurt him until he makes a mistake. Don’t blink during this fight.
Sporting News prediction: Prochazka via TKO (round three)
Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal; Featherweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Youssef Zalal is the -500 favorite, while Josh Emmett is the +360 underdog.
Emmett lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute. He landed four takedowns in his last fight and averages 1.09 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Zalal lands 3.07 significant strikes and averages 2.09 takedowns landed.
Emmett has proven to be elite at certain points, but he absorbs 4.46 significant strikes and is susceptible to the takedown. He’s 40, but it doesn’t seem he’s shown true signs of slowing down. If Zalal can lock the body of Emmett, it could give him the edge. However, Emmett may be able to fight out of it and land a big blow to earn the win.
Sporting News prediction: Emmett via TKO (round two)
Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Joe Pyfer is the -245 favorite, while Abus Magomedov is the +194 underdog.
Pyfer lands 3.74 significant strikes per minute, while Magomedov lands 3.21. Magomedov averages 2.65 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, while Pyfer, susceptible to the takedown, averages 1.35.
Magomedov is a well-rounded fighter, while Pyfer is known for his striking. The latter makes far more mistakes, especially if he’s off, and Magomedov can frustrate him enough and tire him out. If Magomedov brings him to the floor, an upset is possible.
Sporting News prediction: Magomedov via unanimous decision
Ateba Gautier vs. Osman Diaz; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Ateba Gautier is the -1800 favorite, while Treston Vines is the +880 underdog.
Gautier is dangerous, impressing on Dana White’s Contender Series with flurries that ended in a knockout win. “The Silent Assassin” lands 6.93 significant strikes per minute. Vines is competing on four days’ notice, normally a recipe for disaster. He’s on a four-fight win streak, with three wins via finishes.
Vines has promise, but can he provide a massive upset against Gautier? It’s hard to see that this close to the fight.
Sporting News prediction: Gautier via KO (round one)
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Muniz; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Edmen Shahbazyan is the -290 favorite, while Andre Muniz is the +225 underdog.
Though he absorbs 3.62 significant strikes per minute, Shahbazyan lands 3.74 strikes. “The Golden Boy” also averages 1.69 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Muniz lands 2.04 significant strikes and averages 4.02 takedowns landed. He landed eleven against JunYoung Park.
When Shahbazyan is on, he can hurt an opponent with ease. It only took him about a minute to beat Dylan Budka. That may not be the case here, but if he can use his 66% takedown defense to his advantage, Shahbazyan should be able to neutralize Muniz.
Sporting News prediction: Shahbazyan via round two
Chris Gutierrez vs. Farid Basharat; Bantamweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Farid Basharat is the -430 favorite, while Chris Gutierrez is the +320 underdog.
Gutierrez lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute, while Basharat is right there with a 4.36 mark. The latter does average 3.97 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, while Gutierrez is susceptible to the takedown.
Basharat provides a lot of pressure and has the reach advantage. If Gutierrez tries to strike his way to victory, Basharat may already have him scouted. Having enough control time and providing some damage should sway the judges to give him the decision win.
Sporting News prediction: Basharat via unanimous decision
Daniel Santos vs. Yoo Joo-sang; Featherweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Daniel Santos is the -170 favorite, while Yoo Joo-sang is the +138 underdog.
“Zombie Jr.” landed six significant punches in his last fight, earning a knockout win in his UFC debut. Santos lands 4.74 significant strikes and averages 3.03 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
While Santos can pull off a win by any means, it’s hard to think Yoo won’t be an effective puncher against Santos. An upset win isn’t that far out there, especially if Yoo controls the distance and hits his shots.
Sporting News prediction: Yoo via unanimous decision
Macy Chiasson vs. Yana Santos; Bantamweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Macy Chiasson is the -200 favorite, while Yana Santos is the +160 underdog.
Santos lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute, while Chiasson lands 3.49. Chiasson averages 2.08 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
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Santos looked great against Miesha Tate and has stuck around with some of the best in the octagon. Chiasson wasn’t efficient against Ketlen Vieira and has struggled against top-tier competition over the years. Santos has a chance to tire her out and earn an impressive win.
Sporting News prediction: Santos via unanimous decision
Patchy Mix vs. Jakub Wiklacz; Bantamweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Patchy Mix is the -310 favorite, while Jakub Wiklacz is the +240 underdog.
Mix landed 122 significant strikes in his UFC debut. The former Bellator champion has thirteen wins via submission. Wiklacz has ten wins via submission. The former KSW champion hasn’t lost a bout since 2020.
It won’t be an easy fight for Mix, who looks to prove Bellator fighters can thrive in the octagon. Wiklacz doesn’t have the grappling ability that Mix has, which helps the latter in the long run. The Sporting News believes Mix will thrive under pressure in his sophomore bout.
Sporting News prediction: Mix via submission (round two)
Punahele Soriano vs. Nikolay Veretennikov; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Punahele Soriano is the -300 favorite, while Nikolay Veretennikov is the +235 underdog.
Soriano lands 5.00 significant strikes per minute, landing 144 against Miguel Baeza. He also averages 1.47 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Veretennikov lands 3.01 significant strikes and averages 0.55 takedowns landed.
While he can take a fighter down, Veretennikov is susceptible to the takedown. Soriano can attack from all fronts. It seems unlikely that it will change in this fight.
Sporting News prediction: Soriano via TKO (round two)
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Austin Vanderford; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Austin Vanderford is the -300 favorite, while Ramiz Brahimaj is the +235 underdog.
In his short time in the octagon, Vanderford has landed 4.08 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.77 takedowns landed per 15. Brahimaj lands 2.14 significant strikes and averages 1.99 takedowns landed.
Vanderford has the size advantage and is a solid wrestler. However, Brahimaj also has a solid wrestling background. The former Bellator title contender in Vanderford should get the job done, forcing the fight to the floor and tiring Brahimaj out.
Sporting News prediction: Vanderford via unanimous decision
Veronica Hardy vs. Brogan Walker; Flyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Veronica Hardy is the -650 favorite, while Brogan Walker is the +440 underdog.
Hardy, 3-1 in her last four fights, lands 3.12 significant strikes per minute. She also averages 0.93 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Walker lands 2.04 significant strikes and has been brought down eight times in two fights.
Hardy is a heavy favorite, and for good reason. She should bounce back, though Hardy should be wary of Walker, as anything is possible in MMA.
Sporting News prediction: Hardy via unanimous decision
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