Dustin Poirier is ready to participate in the final battle of his legendary career on July 19 at UFC 318. Headlining a show in his hometown of New Orleans at the Smoothie King Center, “The Diamond” faces Max Hollway for the BMF Title.
Louisiana’s Poirier (30-9, 1 NC) is 2-2 in his past four fights. He’s beaten some of the top fighters in the UFC’s lightweight division, holding interim gold but never winning the big one. The 36-year-old is going out on his terms.
Holloway (26-8) is the current BMF Champion. He won the belt after a memorable buzzer-beater knockout against Justin Gaethje. The former featherweight champion is one of, if not the, most lethal strikers in UFC history.
The BMF belt is known as the “baddest m—–f—–” belt. Unlike regular championships in the UFC, it’s a symbolic title known to elevate a beloved fan-favorite due to their toughness. Holders of the belts include Jorge Masvidal, Gaethje, and Holloway.
Other fighters on the card include Paulo Costa (14-4), who faces the dangerous Roman Kopylov (14-3). Meanwhile, the exciting Kevin Holland (28-13, 1 NC) returns to action, as well as former Bellator champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (36-8).
Former title contender Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) competes, as does the hard-hitting Carli Judice (4-2).
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 318.
UFC 318 expert picks and full card predictions
Max Holloway (c) vs. Dustin Poirier 3 for the BMF Title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Max Holloway is the -140 favorite, while Dustin Poirier is the +114 underdog.
There should be plenty of fireworks here.
Poirier won the first fight between the two in 2012 via armbar in Holloway’s UFC debut. The second fight in 2019 saw both men land a combined 359 significant strikes. Poirier won one again, this time via decision. The second fight is more of a comparison of who these two are.
Holloway, a lethal striker, lands an absurd 7.16 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 4.76 but has a strike defense mark of 59%. He landed 445 against Calvin Kattar and has landed triple-digit strikes 12 times in 14 fights. Poirier lands 5.30 significant strikes and has a strike defense mark of 52%. He absorbs 4.33 strikes. “The Diamond” also averages 1.24 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
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Poirier has been on a mission to get a guillotine win. It isn’t believed that this fight will end via submission. Both are lethal strikers who will do whatever it takes to get the win. However, both are smart, meaning they won’t go all out and compromise their position. At least until the last minute of the fight.
Holloway’s volume is relentless. If anyone can handle it, it’s Poirier, known for crafty elite defense.
Retirement fights have never really ended well, but if Poirier can manage to showcase some magic, he can be a very dangerous fighter, even against Holloway. It’s a home game for Poirier, and he hasn’t struggled against a guy like Holloway. As long as there’s no massive knockout after letting his guard down, expect Poirier to go out on top following an entertaining affair.
Sporting News prediction: Poirier via unanimous decision
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Roman Kopylov is the -230 favorite, while Paulo Costa is the +184 underdog.
Kopylov lands 4.96 significant strikes per minute while averaging 1.17 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He has a takedown defense mark of 87%. Costa hasn’t fought in a year and looks for his first win since 2022. He lands 6.22 significant strikes and averages 0.36 takedowns landed.
Which Costa will appear on fight night? “The Eraser” gets things done, while the man who couldn’t outstrike Sean Strickland has gotten ridiculed. Speaking of power, Kopylov is the better striker. Costa has absorbed significant damage (6.56) in his career, which brings the thought that Kopylov will be too much for him to handle.
Sporting News prediction: Kopylov via TKO (round three)
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Kevin Holland is the -520 favorite, while Daniel Rodriguez is the +370 underdog.
Holland lands 4.24 significant strikes per minute, landing 95 in his last two fights. “Trailblazer” also averages 0.81 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Rodriguez lands 7.39 significant strikes and has a 63% takedown defense mark.
It has been said many times: the active Holland is either on another level in the cage or one of the most frustrating fighters out there. He can put Vicente Luque in an Anaconda Choke or look lost against Reinier de Ridder. Rodriguez is susceptible to the takedown, having been dropped five times in three fights.
If all goes according to plan, Holland should once again impress, first on the feet and then on the floor.
Sporting News prediction: Holland via submission (round two)
Dan Ige vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire; Featherweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Dan Ige is the -225, while Patricio Freire is the +180 underdog.
Ige lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute and has a 45% strike accuracy mark. Freire landed only 17 significant strikes in his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez. The former Bellator champion has 12 wins via knockout and 12 via submission.
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Fight fans who may have never seen Freire in his prime may have already lost hope. However, that wouldn’t be wise, as he’s still as dangerous as they come. He happens to face a solid striker in Ige. Ige can overwhelm “Pitbull,” but if a sliver of the old Freire comes out, he could have a true breakout octagon moment.
Sporting News prediction: Freire via unanimous decision
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber; Lightweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Daniel Zellhuber is the -550 favorite, while Michael Johnson is the +390 underdog.
Zellhuber has landed over 120 strikes in his last two fights to go with 6.26 significant strikes landed per minute. Johnson lands 4.23 significant strikes and averages 0.61 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Despite losing his last fight, Zellhuber can be considered an uber prospect. Age is a key difference between the two, and the older Johnson’s chin may work in favor of Zellhuber. Expect a finish from Zellhuber, though Johnson will try his best to outlast his opponent.
Sporting News prediction: Zellhuber via TKO (round two)
Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira; Bantamweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Vinicius Oliveira is the -160 favorite, while Kyler Phillips is the +130 underdog.
Phillips lands 5.28 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. Oliveira lands 4.92 strikes and averages 1.89 takedowns. Both are even in takedown defense and strike accuracy mark.
The bout has a chance to be a Fight of the Night contender. Oliveira’s strikes can be classified as the more explosive of the two. He’s ready for some violence. His overall abilities may also help stuff takedown attempts from Phillips.
Sporting News prediction: Oliveira via unanimous decision
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Brendan Allen is the -194 favorite, while Marvin Vettori is the +156 underdog.
Allen lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute and has a 55% strike accuracy mark. “All In” averages 1.53 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Vettori lands 4.54 significant strikes and averages 1.51 takedowns. He has a 46% strike accuracy mark.
It was thought Allen would be a top contender until recent losses against opponents who have outstruck him. His most impressive win was when he landed six takedowns and 112 strikes against Chris Curtis. Vettori’s last two opponents landed a combined 382 significant strikes. However, he’s landed triple-digit shots four times in his past five fights, so he can give and take.
One would think it’s going to be a bounce-back win for Allen. However, Vettori has managed to make himself relevant in fights in which people dismiss him, and he could do so again by frustrating Allen for three rounds.
Sporting News prediction: Vettori via unanimous decision
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Francisco Prado is the -150 favorite, while Nikolay Veretennikov is the +122 underdog.
Prado lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute. However, he absorbs 5.32 significant strikes. Veretennikov has absorbed 3.54, while landing 2.73 per minute. The latter will have a five-inch advantage but is coming off a bland loss against Austin Vanderford.
Veretennikov will try to control the distance. He isn’t a standout striker but may do just enough to win.
Sporting News prediction: Veretennikov via unanimous decision
Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Ateba Gautier is the -550 favorite, while Robert Valentin is the +390 underdog.
Gautier has landed 6.06 significant strikes per minute in two UFC fights. He has a 64% strike accuracy line. Valentine lands 1.10 significant strikes. He’s susceptible to the takedown, getting dropped nine times in two fights.
There won’t be a need to worry about takedowns here. Gautier should smother Valentin to start and then knock him out of the octagon.
Sporting News prediction: Gautier via TKO (round one)
Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Islam Dulatov is the -600 favorite, while Adam Fugitt is the +420 underdog.
Dulatov had a tremendous showing in his Dana White’s Contender Series debut, landing 39 strikes in the first round. “The Ripper” has seven wins via knockout and four via submission. Fugitt’s coming off a win against Josh Quinlan. He landed 4.72 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.04 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
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As impressive as his last win was, Fugitt can be susceptible to takedowns and getting hit with volume shots. Both have proven to be effective for Dulatov. Though Dulatov’s resume doesn’t showcase much to desire, his skills should be the biggest concern.
Sporting News prediction: Dulatov via TKO (round two)
Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio; Light Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Jimmy Crute is the -325 favorite, while Marcin Prachnio is the +250 underdog.
Crute lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute, landing 106 in his last fight. He also averages 3.86 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Prachnio lands 5.57 significant strikes and averages 0.15 takedowns landed. Crute will have a one-inch reach advantage.
While Crute is the favorite, the 29-year-old hasn’t gotten a win since 2020. The Aussie does have a more diverse offense compared to Prachnio, a kickboxer. However, it’s not out there to think the Polish fighter can secure the upset win given his recent luck and the possibility of stuffing Crute’s ground game.
Sporting News prediction: Prachnio via unanimous decision
Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski; Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Ryan Spann is the -240 favorite, while Lukasz Brzeski is the +190 underdog.
Spann has traded wins and losses over the years, but he’s still a threat. He has landed 3.20 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.17 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Brzeski only has two UFC wins in seven contests. He lands 5.02 strikes and has a 50% strike accuracy mark.
Neither fighter has impressive records in their past few fights, but Spann appears to have more to offer in this fight, especially as he attempts to conquer the heavyweight division. “Superman” can attack on the floor and the feet, and it looks like he will continue Brzeski’s bad luck on fight night.
Sporting News prediction: Spann via KO (round one)
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Brunno Ferreira is the -600 favorite, while Jackson McVey is the +420 underdog.
Ferreira lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute, the same number of strikes he absorbs. “The Hulk” also averages 1.14 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He’s used that to his advantage, submitting Armen Petrosyan despite being at a disadvantage in significant strikes. McVey, who fought one month ago, has three wins via knockout and three via submission.
This is some tough matchmaking. Anything is possible, especially if they slug it out. Given the likelihood of that, the fight shouldn’t last long. Ferreira will continue his finish streak.
Sporting News prediction: Ferreira via KO (round one)
Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari; Flyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Carli Judice is the -320 favorite, while Nicolle Caliari is the +245 underdog.
Judice is a volume machine. Including a run on Dana White’s Contender Series, she has landed 354 significant strikes in three UFC fights. “Crispy” lands 11.18 significant strikes per minute. Meanwhile, Caliari lands 3.85 strikes and averages 3.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
While Caliari is dangerous on the floor, Judice’s takedown defense (70%) can help her out. If Judice can strike early and often, she should be able to overwhelm Caliari.
Sporting News prediction: Judice via unanimous decision
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