Myktybek Orolbai vs Mateusz Rebecki: Although Orolbai does not set as high a pace as Carlos Diego Ferreira, he has fourteen years of youth on CDF and is a sharper striker with his piston of a straight left. The Kyrgyzstani’s wrestling has potential to get him into the rankings in the future, but for now he is 2-0 in the UFC and looking nigh untouchable by unranked fighters.
Orolbai’s only pro loss was to an undefeated Russian prospect, and Rebecki has shown enough holes in his game that I am confident in the 26-year-old to get the job done. Submission gives the best odds for his method of victory, and against a fighter who has gas tank issues I will always sprinkle a half bet on a finish in the final round.
Orolbai by Sub @ +500, Orolbai in r3 @ +900 (.5u), most sig strikes -105
Abusipuyan Magomedov vs Brunno Ferreira: Abus Magomedov did not ask to be put in a main event in his second UFC fight (full analysis here), but losing that fight to Sean Strickland and then the follow-up loss against now-top-ranked fighter Caio Borralho has led to a steep drop in his stock.
He may not be contender material but is still significantly better than ‘Hulk’ Ferreira everywhere. Brunno has never fought for more than six minutes and eight seconds as a professional, so nobody should have trouble guessing my prop bets for this fight.
Abus ML @ -142, Abus in r2 @ +550 (.75u), in r3 @ +725 (.5u)
Farid Basharat vs Victor Hugo: Farid Basharat is a -800 favorite here, a position his brother recently lost in. However, Farid is the more talented Bash brother, and though he will absolutely find success wrestling Hugo, he is also the far better striker.
Barring an early finish, which he only has one finish in the UFC, this should easily hit; he averages 4.47 significant strikes per minute and over 40 significant strikes per fight. At that rate he can have control time with no strikes for five full minutes and still easily hit
Farid over 39.5 sig strikes @ -125 (2u)
Chris Barnett vs Kennedy Nzechukwu: This fight is pretty much a meme, but Nzechukwu is a woeful finisher for how physically imposing he is and Barnett has not lost by finish in the UFC yet. I expect a tepid kickboxing match for much of it, I only worry about the Barnett significant strikes picks losing if Kennedy decides to wrestle from the start, where he will probably have success. Half unit bet on submission.
Barnett o20.5 sig strikes @ -150
Nzechukwu by Sub @ +500 (.5u), over 0.5 takedowns @ +120
Carlos Leal vs Rinat Fakhretdinov: My full breakdown of the UFC 308 prelim card’s opener can be found here, but essentially, I think Leal is being underrated here and Rinat still overrated. Expecting a close split decision where Leal has a good shot to win. Even though the split decision bets are long odds, I’m putting a full unit on every one of them on this card.
Leal ML @ +190, o44.5 Sig Strikes @ -115
Fight goes to Split Decision @ +375
Fakhretdinov u3.5 takedowns
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