The third men’s major of the year is here, and it feels as though “carnage” will be the word of the week.
Punishingly thick rough. Screaming fast greens. Treacherous bunkers. Whoever comes out on top at Oakmont County Club in the 125th U.S. Open will be a worthy champion.
Here are the betting favorites to win the toughest test on the golf calendar and some expert picks from Brad Thomas.
Scottie Scheffler will be the pre-championship favorite at Oakmont for good reason, but what about everyone else? Let’s rank them all.
Ludvig Åberg, to win (+3000)
Without sounding like a broken record, Oakmont is an absolute beast of a golf course. It will likely be the most difficult the pros play this season.
With thick, 5-inch rough and very narrow fairways, driving accuracy will be at a premium this week. Given the thick rough and the fact that the course is 7,373 yards, driving distance and clubhead speed will be another critical asset.
If I were to build a perfect course fit for Åberg, it would be a long course with massive greens and very penal rough. That’s precisely what Oakmont is.
There’s a reason why Åberg dominated at the Farmers in Round 1 before getting sick, and then dominated at the Genesis Invitational, which was played at Torrey Pines’ South Course this year due to the Palisades fires.
Shortly after Åberg’s win at the Genesis Invitational, his form dipped. He missed three cuts in nine starts. His irons were poor, and he was too up and down on the greens. However, at the Memorial in the final round, he gained 2.2 strokes on approach and another 0.8 strokes putting.
He parlayed the fourth-round success with a T-13 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, where he gained 3.2 strokes on approach and another +1.79 strokes putting. If Åberg found something, this course is a perfect venue for him to pick up his first major.
Jon Rahm over Rory McIlroy (-135)
Playing Rahm over McIlroy in the two-way market or “draw no bet.” If the two tie, your stake is returned.
McIlroy’s range of outcomes might be one of the largest in the field this week. If his driver is on and his game is dialed in, he has a chance to win. Right now, we are at the “prove it” point with McIlroy.
Surely, he can’t play worse than he did last week. We should see some positive regression. Yet, I’m still inclined to play this market until he proves it.
Last week was a nightmare for McIlroy. He missed the cut at the Canadian Open and lost 10.7 strokes to the field — one of his worst marks since 2013. There was a lot of chatter that McIlroy’s non-conforming driver issue would cause him to play poorly. In Round 1, he didn’t drive the ball terribly but was awful with his irons. He couldn’t make a putt to save his life, and the game wasn’t coming easily for him.
In the second round, it seemed as if he had given up. Nothing was working. He was terrible with his driver, his irons were poor and his short game was also subpar; he might as well have been putting with a hammer. He had the look of a player who wanted to be anywhere but on the course.
McIlroy mentioned struggling to find motivation after completing the career Grand Slam. Well, Oakmont will chew you up and spit you out if you aren’t entirely focused and on top of your game. That’s where Rahm comes in. He’s a player who is inching closer to winning another event and maybe even another major.
Rahm’s game is back in shape. He’s driving the ball well and gaining a ton all over the course. He almost had a big PGA Championship before he fell off late. I’d say a fair line for this on the two-way market would be Rahm -200.
2025 U.S. Open odds (as of Wednesday, courtesy DraftKings):
- Scottie Scheffler: +275
- Bryson DeChambeau: +750
- Rory McIlroy: +1200
- Jon Rahm: +1200
- Xander Schauffele: +2200
- Collin Morikawa: +2500
- Joaquin Niemann: +3000
- Ludvig Åberg: +3000
- Tommy Fleetwood: +4000
- Shane Lowry: +4500
- Justin Thomas: +5000
- Sepp Straka: +5000
- Patrick Cantlay: +5500
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