Turning Point: Is Chase Elliott the sleeping giant of 2025?

Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the Viva Mexico 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in the rearview and The Great American Getaway 400 Presented by VISITPA.COMat Pocono Raceway up next.

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1. Is Chase Elliott the sleeping giant of 2025?

Mired in a glaring winless stretch, Chase Elliott is still quietly riding a wave of steady momentum under the surface. With unmatched consistency and a playoff spot all but secured, No. 9 heads to Pocono needing just one spark to light the wick. If it comes, a beast may awaken.

Chase Elliott hasn’t won a race in more than a year, and he hasn’t come particularly close to doing it in 2025. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion just isn’t finding the front of the field, leading in just a handful of races this year for a total of 95 laps and leaving the headline-grabbing trips to Victory Lane to names like Christopher Bell, William Byron, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson.

But make no mistake: He’s lurking. Quietly. Relentlessly.

And if he turns up the wick before the playoffs hit, the rest of the field might not know what hit them.

Elliott is doing something almost no one else in the Cup Series can claim: finishing races no matter what, no matter how. He’s the only driver to place inside the top 20 in all 16 events this season, a feat of consistency he also managed last year and then some. He’s completed all but one lap. He hasn’t had a single meltdown, misstep, or mechanical disaster take him out of contention. His average finish — 11.19 — is third best in the series and on pace to be a career high.

Elliott and his longtime crew chief Alan Gustafson are just so in sync at this point that catastrophic days simply don’t exist for the No. 9 team anymore. But here’s where it gets complicated: The wins, along with the misses, have vanished.

He’s riding a 43-race winless streak dating back to April 2024, and we’re not seeing him routinely battling for wins and settling for top fives like earlier in his career; he has just four such finishes this year, with Mexico (third) being his first in two months. For all the precision and polish, Elliott’s recent results lack that killer edge we saw in the last generation of cars. He’s remarkably and consistently good in the Next Gen — but he hasn’t been great.

Still, he’s essentially a playoff lock. Sitting 146 points above the elimination line, his spot is nearly untouchable, though anything can happen over 10 races. But making the playoffs isn’t enough — not for a 2020 champion; not for a guy who made his home in the Championship 4 for three straight years, not that long ago. Elliott’s bar is higher, and the closer we get to the postseason, the more it feels like he’s building toward something.

And now? Pocono. A place where Elliott quietly actually does dominate in the Next Gen car — top 10 in every race since the debut, and more points earned there in it than anyone.

Even if it doesn’t happen Sunday, Elliott has three road courses and his home track, EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway), left before the playoffs. If he capitalizes on even one, the narrative around the No. 9 flips from “steady but non-threatening” to “surging and dangerous.”

Just like nobody wanted to see Joey Logano sneak back into the Round of 8 last year after a penalty to the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet slotted him in, none of Elliott’s peers want to see him and the No. 9 group clicking off wins again, because everybody knows they’re capable of doing so in bunches.

Everything points to it happening, however.

The Dawsonville, Georgia native has been progressively climbing the mountain while others flame out or feast on spurts of short-term momentum from wins before fading. He doesn’t beat himself on the race track, and it feels like he’s one moment away from reminding everyone of the dominance that takes place when this team is at full strength.

If the switch flips soon, it won’t be subtle. It’ll be a wake-up call (siren?) for the whole garage — loud, sudden … and felt all the way to Phoenix.

In a NASCAR season that has felt, at times, a bit top-heavy with the superstars of the sport commanding dominion over Victory Lane, the real playoff chaos — as we saw in Mexico City — is going to come from the crowded underbelly of the standings.

With 10 races left before the field gets sliced to 16, the bubble isn’t just bubbling — it’s boiling. Three somewhat surprising names (Sunday’s Mexico winner Shane van Gisbergen, Austin Cindric and Josh Berry) have already locked in with thrilling wins. The window to claim one’s spot is shrinking, the pressure is rising and the next big shakeup may come from a winless driver, one of whom many expected to be locked up by now — or at least be in the running to defend his Regular Season Championship.

The no-man’s land of the 2025 NASCAR Playoffs picture is elbow-to-elbow, and the trick to getting out of the muck and the mire might come this weekend at Pocono.

Start with Tyler Reddick, who has been much maligned for erratic finishes … but is also having the quietest elite season no one seems to be noticing. On the surface, his five top 10s in 16 races are not flashy, but he’s second only to championship favorite William Byron in average running position, arguably a much better indicator than average race finish.

He’s clearly overdue, and he’s a potential sniper for the Pocono win with four straight top 10s and two runner-ups in the last three. His average finish there since 2022? Best in the field, at a pristine 3.3. If the march to re-enter the RSC conversation is going to happen, it will start at Pocono.

Chris Buescher is in a similar boat, expected in pre-season chatter to be a more viable title contender this year than he’s looked so far, but the gears are turning there. He’ll certainly be in the mix at the remaining road courses as well, but in terms of this weekend, the former “Tricky Triangle” winner is the only driver to finish top 10 at Pocono in each of the last two years, and he’s still out-pacing his typical stats this season, with his eight 2025 top 10s being the most he’s had through 16 races to date. He’s clinging to the final playoff spot by just 19 points, but there’s obviously something special about Pocono for him. It could all come together here.

Reddick’s teammate Bubba Wallace has looked like the better of the two at times this year, but — as he’s shown over the years — brings a boom-or-bust profile. He’s currently booming, however, following up three straight finishes of 33rd or worse with three straight of 12th or better and could stretch that into Pocono, where his three top 10s have all come in the past four races. If things go sideways late — and they often do — Wallace’s top-ranked pit crew per NASCAR Insights could be the difference-maker.

We just saw Alex Bowman, a former Pocono winner, snap a miserable run of bad luck at Mexico City in quite impressive fashion, and he has four top 10s in his last six Pocono starts. He’s above the elimination line, but in absolutely no way is his position safe yet. Especially if someone like Erik Jones, with the speed Toyota is likely to have, sneaks up and shocks everybody. Outside the top 20 in points but still within striking distance of the postseason — again, no-man’s land stretches far and wide — Jones has eight top 10s and five top fives in 13 starts at Pocono. And lately, he’s trending up, with four top 15s in the last six races.

If someone shocks the playoff picture this week, Jones has the resume to do it, but don’t be surprised if any of these guys whittle out their playoff spot in Pennsylvania, because they’re at a premium.

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