Trotter’s 10 Trends: Defensive predictor for March Madness glory, how Rick Pitino pushed St. John’s past UConn

March is coming, so this week’s 10 Trends is centered around an angle that a champion leaned on, the runner-up utilized differently and an area that conveniently coincided with numerous early-round exits.

Let’s dive in:

1. Elite high-major rim defenses

UConn, armed with Donovan Clingan, leaned on the best rim defense in the sport all the way to the National Championship last year. Dan Hurley welcomed opponents to try and attack the basket, and Cling Kong usually sent ’em packing. 

The second weekend was also littered with teams with dominant rim defenses like Clemson, North Carolina, Houston, Tennessee and Creighton. 

So, who are the top 10, high-major rim defenses so far this year?

1. Tennessee: 46.9%
2. UConn: 49.2%
3. Arizona: 49.5%
4. San Diego State: 49.5% (the Aztecs are a high-major-caliber team; argue with a wall.)
5. Saint Mary’s: 49.8% (the Gaels are a high-major-caliber team; argue with a wall.)
6. Auburn: 50%
7. Illinois: 50.3%
8. Houston: 50.6%
9. Georgetown: 50.7%
10. Florida: 50.9%

I do not think it’s a coincidence that Auburn (tracking for a 1-seed), Houston (tracking for a 1-seed) and Florida (pushing for a 1-seed) all boast elite rim defenses. 

Some mid-major programs with outstanding rim protection that could make major noise in the Big Dance, include: UC Irvine, VCU and George Mason.

Selection Sunday is less than five weeks away. I’ll be backing those teams with outstanding rim defenses in my bracket.

You can catch San Diego State’s elite rim defense in Saturday’s Mountain West rivalry game against Boise State (10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App).  

2. Leaky high-major rim defenses

Here were some of the notable tournament teams last year who struggled with rim defense:

• No. 3 seed Baylor: bounced in the Round of 32
• No. 5 seed Wisconsin: bounced in the Round of 64
• No. 6 seed BYU: bounced in the Round of 64
• No. 1 seed Purdue: advanced to the National Championship game

One of those is not like the others, but we’ll dive into that in just a second. First, here’s which high-major teams are struggling to defend the rim this season: 

1. Notre Dame: 67.3%
2. Purdue: 64.4% 
3. Miami: 63.4%
4. Iowa: 62.7%
5. TCU: 61.7%
6. UCLA: 61.4%
7. Oklahoma State: 61.2%
8. Virginia Tech: 60.5%
9. Seton Hall: 60.2%
10. South Carolina: 60.1%

As expected, it’s a pretty dreadful batch of teams who are already making offseason plans … except for Purdue and UCLA. 

That’s where nuance is so vital.

3. Explaining UCLA’s shaky rim defense

UCLA is extremely cut-and-dry. Cronin has pivoted to 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara way more, and the on-off splits are jarring. Opponents are shooting 67% at the rim against UCLA when Mara sits and just 51% when he’s on the floor, per hoop-explorer. He’s a lean, mean, shot-blocking machine.

Mara’s emergence has changed UCLA’s biggest weakness into a legitimate strength for a Mick Cronin-led defense that was already vicious.

4. Explaining Purdue’s shaky rim defense

Matt Painter’s strategy around rim defense has been consistent, even with vastly different personnel. Last year, Zach Edey transformed into a good shot-blocker, but he was an elite rim deterrent. Purdue’s defense ranked second in the nation in rim frequency allowed. Opponents rarely took shots at the rim in half-court scenarios against Purdue’s defense when Edey was on the floor, but if you got out in transition, there were easy buckets available if you could beat the big fella down the floor (which was easier said than done).

A similar script is playing out this year. Painter switched the rotation to feature way more lineups with Trey Kaufmann-Renn and Caleb Furst together. Opponents still shoot over 72% at the rim against Purdue with Kaufmann-Renn and Furst on the floor, but the Boilermakers’ smart defensive gameplans do a great job of limiting rim attempts in halfcourt scenarios. 

Check out this game log against Purdue in the last six games:

• USC: 78% at the rim on 14 attempts
• Iowa: 71% at the rim on 14 attempts
• Indiana: 80% at the rim on 15 attempts
• Michigan: 66% at the rim on 12 attempts
• Ohio State: 66% at the rim on nine attempts
• Oregon: 61% at the rim on 13 attempts

If Purdue gets bounced early from the Big Dance, a leaky interior defense could be the reason why, but it’s hard to generate the easiest shot in basketball against this group. Purdue’s offense is a huge part of this equation. Braden Smith and Co. are so elite that they are constantly forcing opponents to take it out of the net, which allows the Boilermakers to get their defense set. Just three teams (Auburn, Marquette and Alabama) have attempted more than 17 shots at the rim against Purdue in a single game.

Purdue squares off against Michigan Tuesday in a pivotal Big Ten clash ahead of Saturday’s home matchup against No. 16 Wisconsin (1 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime).

5. This isn’t your father’s Wisconsin Badgers

Speaking of the Badgers, the winds of change are alive and well in Madison. Wisconsin is, uh, running way, way more than maybe ever before. New offensive coordinator Kirk Penney has helped revamp Wisconsin’s shot-chart. The Badgers are shooting a lower percentage of midrange jumpers than ever before, and a zoom-zoom transition attack has helped Wisconsin build a top-10 offense.

Let’s look back at the last 11 years of Wisconsin basketball. That stretches back to the Bo Ryan era when the Badgers went to the National Championship game in 2015 and covers the entire Greg Gard tenure.

Wisconsin transition points per game, per Synergy:

• 2025: 10.7
• 2024: 6.5
• 2023: 4.4
• 2022: 6.8
• 2021: 6.5
• 2020: 5.3
• 2019: 4.8
• 2018: 5.4
• 2017: 5.7
• 2016: 4.4
• 2015: 6.1 

It’s not an exaggeration to say that Wisconsin is running more than it ever. The Badgers’ tempo is the highest it has ever been in the kenpom.com era, dating back to 1997. 

The Badgers are hunting jumpers early in the shot clock before defenses can get set. This offense is already terrific because it has five shooters on the floor at all times and two physical drive-first monsters in John Tonje and John Blackwell. But the transition spike is historic.

6. Inside the pivotal stretch that helped St. John’s s stun UConn

Rick Pitino’s well-schooled defense made a bunch of mistakes early, but tightened the ship in the second half of Friday’s 68-62 road win over UConn which helped the Johnnies seize control of the Big East race.

One stretch was absolutely tremendous. From the 8:53 mark to the 3:13 timestamp in the second half, UConn scored just one point on 11 possessions. It turned it over six times during that span. St. John’s may be the best switching team in America, right up there with Duke. St. John’s swarmed UConn’s layered actions and forced the Huskies into numerous heaves with the shot clock dwindling.

These possessions are insane, and it helped St. John’s turned a 51-46 deficit into a 60-52 lead.

The switching, the activity, the menacing on-ball pressure — it’s all unbelievable stuff. Pitino gets his team to play harder than almost any other coach in America. 

7. We should have seen Kansas State’s resurgence coming

In Kansas State’s 1-6 start in league play, it was shooting 29% from 3-point range while its opponents were shooting over 40%. 

In my midseason Big 12 tiers, I wrote that the 11% gap was far too wide, completely unrealistic and positive regression was on tap.

But I didn’t expect it to be this quick of a turnaround. Kansas State has reeled off a five-game winning streak, and the Wildcats are shooting a lava-like 43% from 3-point range while its opponents have cooled off to a 31% clip. 

Conversely, that 12% delta is far too wide and unrealistic for the rest of the season, but Jerome Tang’s club had earned some positive regression on both ends.

Kansas State hosts scorching-hot, No. 13 Arizona Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET. 

8. Why Houston could get even more ominous

Baylor shot 9-for-15 (60%) from 3-point range on Monday, but Houston still won comfortably. Teams are now hitting nearly 35% from 3-point range against Houston in Big 12 play. That’s one of the highest marks of the Kelvin Sampson era.

Despite unfortunate 3-point luck, Houston still has one of the top-3 defenses in the country because it forces so many turnovers, limits second-chance opportunities and has an elite rim defense.

Houston’s defense is already elite, but it actually could get so much better once the barrage of 3-pointers quit going in. That’s terrifying for the rest of the league.

9. Regression candidate, Part I: the good

Statistically speaking, it’s hard to do what Miami is doing right now. The Hurricanes — who have lost Jim Larranaga to retirement and star lead guard Nijel Pack to a foot injury — are shooting just 29.4% from 3-point range in ACC play. Their opponents are up at 41%. That 11.6% gap is the biggest of any high-major club in conference play.

10. Regression candidate, Part II: the not so good

Texas Tech is a team I’m aggressively buying as a National Championship contender, but it could very easily have some negative regression looming.

The Red Raiders shooting 36.9% from 3-point range since the New Year. Their opponents are at 26.9%. It would not be surprising at all if that comes back down to earth a little bit down the stretch.

Texas Tech is still awesome, but that’s the positive gap of any high-major club in the last six weeks of ball.