Maybe the NFL should follow the NBA’s lead and create a Most Improved Player award.
Last season it would have been hard to beat Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who went from an interesting rookie season and great draft pedigree to being one vote away from winning NFL MVP. Every season we see players from all positions emerge as key players, whether they were first-round picks or undrafted.
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Here are the 10 candidates to break out this season:
Giants QB Jaxson Dart
There was a weird stretch when people were questioning whether Dart was the answer for the Giants. It’s unclear what more he could have done as a rookie, aside from stay healthy.
Dart looked good as a rookie, though the missed time was a concern. He had 2,272 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions with 487 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns despite starting only 12 games. This season he should have Malik Nabers for most of the season and a better coaching staff to work with. Last year’s first-round draft pick can leave no doubt that he’s the Giants’ quarterback of the foreseeable future.
Jaxson Dart of the New York Giants is coming off a promising rookie season. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
(Rich Storry via Getty Images)
Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten
The Jaguars’ only free-agent addition of any note this offseason was running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. at $10 million over two seasons. It is possible Rodriguez turns the Jaguars’ running back situation into a true committee. It’s also possible that talent wins out and Tuten runs away with the job.
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Tuten was a fourth-round draft pick last season. His athleticism is notable; he ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine. He didn’t have a great rookie season with just 386 yards from scrimmage behind Travis Etienne Jr., but that’s not unusual for a young player. Etienne is off to New Orleans, clearing a path for someone to become a standout at running back in Jacksonville. Tuten is in a good offense and has more upside than Rodriguez. If he starts fast and his playing time grows, he could be in for a huge season.
Bears WR Luther Burden III
Burden was an intriguing second-round pick last season, and after a camp injury contributed to a slow start, he was very good in the second half. He had 34 catches for 481 yards in the final eight regular-season games. Prior to those eight games, Burden had only 13 catches on 15 targets for 171 receiving yards. Burden had 2.34 yards per route run, which was an elite figure. Among all receivers with at least 100 targets, only Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were better than Burden’s 2.34 mark via Pro Football Focus (Burden had just 60 targets). That’s good company.
Burden is going to be a big part of an intriguing Bears offense that could take off in Ben Johnson’s second season as head coach. He could take a huge leap.
Rams TE Terrance Ferguson
It’s a crowded Rams tight end room as Sean McVay embraces multiple TE sets as his go-to offense. But Ferguson has an interesting profile. He caught three touchdowns on just 11 receptions last season. Ferguson had three games above 50% snaps and they all came between Weeks 13-15 as the rookie got comfortable. A hamstring injury late in the season halted that momentum, but he had a 59% snap share in the NFC championship game.
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Ferguson was a second-round pick with a good production and athletic profile, and it would be reasonable for the Rams to want to keep putting more on his plate. He should be the Rams’ future at the position, and he could show he’s the present as well.
Titans OG Fernando Carmona Jr.
I consulted our own Nate Tice for his input on which offensive lineman might break out, and his pick was Carmona. Carmona was a fifth-round pick from Arkansas who handled the transition from left tackle to guard last season with good success. He has had some good reps this preseason, especially when he’s on the move. The Titans would be thrilled if Carmona is a late-round pick who hits at guard opposite Peter Skoronski. That would help solidify Tennessee’s line, which is ranked near the bottom of the NFL.
Texans DT Tommy Togiai
The Texans’ nasty defense doesn’t need another star. But Togiai might be in for a nice jump. Togiai was mostly a career backup since being drafted in the fourth round by the Browns in 2021, but he emerged late last season. He had an impressive 59 tackles, and a surprising ranking of 15th among defensive tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. He finished strong too, with 13 tackles in two playoff games. Maybe that is the breakout, but playing on a tremendous defense, he could manage another improvement in his age-27 season and then hit free agency.
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Eagles OLB Jalyx Hunt
Hunt was an athletic project as a 2024 third-round pick out of Houston Christian. He had a mini-breakout with 6.5 sacks last season but there could be more coming.
In Pro Football Focus’ pass rush productivity (PRP) grade, Hunt ranked 15th in the NFL among those with at least 200 pass rush snaps. Among the 14 players ahead of him, only former teammate Jaelan Phillips and new teammate Jonathan Greenard had fewer sacks. That indicates more could be coming for Hunt. There’s still a playing time bottleneck, but Greenard could miss the start of the season. If Hunt can get enough snaps, he could have a nice leap in the sack category.
Jaguars ILB Ventrell Miller
Miller could see his playing time limited if Branson Combs beats him out for the starting off-ball linebacker job next to Foyesade Oluokun (Combs would be a breakout candidate if that happens). But Miller could have a strong season if he is a full-time starter. Miller had a great tackle rate last season, getting 38 tackles despite starting only two games with only 220 defensive snaps. It’s often inaccurate to prorate out stats from a small sample, but with even 800 snaps Miller could have a nice breakout.
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Chiefs CB Nohl Williams
The Chiefs lost both of their starting cornerbacks to the Rams in the offseason, and drafted Mansoor Delane with the sixth overall pick. The Chiefs still needed someone to step up on the other side, and it appears Williams is up to the task.
The reports on Williams out of training camp have been positive. He was a third-round rookie last season and played a big role, and could be a very important part of coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s defense this season.
Dolphins S Dante Trader Jr.
The Dolphins don’t have a lot to be excited about this season, but Trader could be an exception. Trader was blocked from a big role as a rookie by Minkah Fitzpatrick but the rebuilding Dolphins traded Fitzpatrick this offseason. That should open things up for Trader, a 2025 fifth-round draft pick who had 55 tackles despite being in mostly a backup role. The Dolphins seem to be excited about him heading into the season, and they could end up finding a good young player for their rebuild.
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