When we have huge, landscape-shifting weeks in college football, the updated rankings can be some of the most difficult to sort out. Because while the early weeks have some simple moves of winners going up and losers falling, this point in the season brings enough complication that head-to-head results begin to conflict and it creates a puzzle for voters in the AP Top 25 poll.
In fact, according to CBS Sports Research, Week 5 was the first time more than three AP top-five teams lost this early in the season since 2008. Losses for No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU and No. 5 Georgia have opened up the top of the rankings, allowing winners like Oregon and Ole Miss to make major moves at the top of the poll.
Alabama will certainly be on the rise after beating Georgia in Athens, logging a win that solidifies the Crimson Tide as a legitimate threat still to win the SEC. But while that victory could, in theory, make Alabama the highest-ranked one-loss team, the profile is also impacted by the fact their loss came to Florida State, which will be falling in the rankings after losing at Virginia.
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Voters also have to wrestle with how much they are willing to penalize Penn State after losing at home to Oregon in double-overtime, as well as whether they are comfortable keeping Ohio State as the No. 1 team in the country considering the Ducks’ impressive road win in Happy Valley. There were 55 AP voters who had Ohio State in the top spot last week, and there wasn’t too much to complain about with how the Buckeyes won by double digits against Washington in Seattle, yet the statement made by Dan Lanning’s team on Saturday night on a big stage will kickstart a debate that should be reflected in a more balanced dispersion of first-place votes.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 to look after Week 5:
1. Ohio State (Last week — 1): A dominant defensive performance spurred the Buckeyes 24-6 win at Washington. While Julian Sayin and the Ohio State offense might not have put up big numbers, it was a game the No. 1 team seemed happy to win by any margin as it was their first road test of the season.
2. Oregon (6): As we mentioned earlier, there will be a strong collection of first-place votes for Oregon that will create a great debate regarding the No. 1 team in the country following the Ducks’ double-overtime win at Penn State. Voter and poll inertia could keep the swap from happening this week — or even next week since the Ducks are off — but this is about to become a weekly debate until either the Bucks or Ducks take their first loss of the season.
3. Miami (2): The Hurricanes were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Florida State.
4. Ole Miss (13): Lane Kiffin’s AP poll peak with Ole Miss was No. 5 last September, and the program hasn’t been higher than that since 2015. All of those benchmarks are on the table after the Rebels handled business against LSU in a game that Ole Miss controlled a bit more than the 24-19 final score might indicate.
5. Oklahoma (7): The Sooners were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Kent State.
6. Texas A&M (9): Now at 4-0 for the first time since 2016, Texas A&M backed up its statement win against Notre Dame in Week 3 with a hard-fought victory against Auburn. The 16-10 result demanded that the Aggies defense deliver in what was one of their best games of the season, while Le’Veon Moss did the hard work offensively on the ground with a career-high 139 rushing yards.
7. Penn State (3): We are not projecting a major fall for the Nittany Lions after a double-overtime loss to a team that many voters will consider the best in the country. Penn State gets credit for roaring back from a deficit to force overtime, but ultimately will now need some quality wins to climb back into the top five.
8. Texas (10): The Longhorns were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Florida.
9. Indiana (11): You can call it a letdown, a hangover spot or a trap game, but the Hoosiers are still 5-0 after getting in and out of Kinnick Stadium with a win. Iowa had the game played on their terms and even had chances to take the lead late, but it was Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana defense that came through late to keep the Hoosiers unbeaten.
10. Texas Tech (12): The Red Raiders were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week at Houston.
11. Alabama (17): This is a complex profile for voters to parse as they fill out their ballots. On one hand we just watched Alabama go into Athens and win against a Georgia team that was previously inside the top five. But it is still a one-loss squad with a defeat at Florida State, which will be dropping in the rankings after losing to unranked Virginia. The ceiling is for Alabama to be around No. 8, while this is probably the floor just outside the top 10.
12. Georgia (5): The Bulldogs have a fairly easy adjustment in the rankings for many voters. With a win against Tennessee and a loss to Alabama, Georgia will fall somewhere between the edge of the top 10 to No. 14 or No. 15 after falling 24-21 at home to the Crimson Tide.
13. Iowa State (14): Out of an off week, Iowa State returned to action refreshed and jumped all over Arizona early with a 22-0 lead it defended the rest of the way in a comfortable home win. The Cyclones are now 5-0 on the year and very much in the mix for the Big 12 title and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
14. Vanderbilt (18): The Commodores are 5-0 for the first time since 2008 after a 55-35 win against Utah State that saw Diego Pavia total six touchdowns and the offense score 40-plus points for the fourth time this season. Up next is a rematch of last year’s classic against Alabama, this time in Tuscaloosa.
15. Tennessee (15): Caught in an absolute dogfight with Mississippi State in Starkville, the Vols got a game-tying touchdown run in regulation from quarterback Joey Aguilar and then a game-winning defensive stop in overtime to escape with a win and improve to 4-1 on the season. The game featured seven lead changes and 75 total points before it was all said and done, but the Vols move on to October with a respectable résumé when it comes to the rankings.
16. Georgia Tech (16): Don’t be surprised if the Yellow Jackets give up a spot or two in the rankings after needing overtime to escape Winston-Salem with a 30-29 win against Wake Forest. It’s not just that the margin was closer than expected, Brent Key’s team trailed 20-3 in the third quarter before turning things around. It was a big-stage game in the early slate that got plenty of “upset alert” buzz, so voters could knock Georgia Tech enough on their ballots for some minor adjustments in the consensus rankings.
17. LSU (4): The drop for LSU could be aggressive given the fact that the Tigers’ resume has taken a hit with Clemson’s regression. Coming out of Week 1, that win in the other Death Valley looked like one of the best nonconference victories of the season, but now it’s the offensive struggles that are the primary storyline and a 20-10 victory against Florida the best win on the profile.
18. Missouri (20): There shouldn’t be too much of an adjustment after Missouri’s win against UMass, though now at 5-0 there’s an argument that the Tigers are ready to be compared to the other undefeated teams in the poll.
19. Florida State (8): The win against Alabama is going to help cushion the fall for Florida State after losing to unranked Virginia on the road in double overtime on Friday night. The Seminoles’ placement will differ greatly across ballots, but in the consensus this seems like a sensible spot for Mike Norvell’s squad to land after the upset loss.
20. Illinois (23): The Fighting Illini now have five wins against AP-ranked teams since the start of last season after taking down USC with a walk-off field goal to win 34-32. It wasn’t the best game for Illinois, but it required some real perseverance. At 4-1 with only a loss to Indiana the Illini are poised to see some positive bounce back from last week’s drop in the rankings.
21. Michigan (19): The Wolverines were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Wisconsin.
22. Notre Dame (22): We could be in line for a series of lopsided results coming from Notre Dame if the Fighting Irish are going to run it up on opponents the same way they did last season when their playoff future was hanging in the balance every week. Notre Dame was on the wrong end of the turnover battle in its 56-13 win against Arkansas, but voters should get prepared for a slow climb in the rankings if this performance is a glimpse of what’s ahead in the coming weeks.
23. BYU (25): The Cougars fell behind early against Colorado. but did a good job responding, outscoring the Buffs 21-7 over the final three quarters of the game to win 24-21 and improve to 4-0 on the season.
24. Utah (NR): The Utes were bounced from the rankings after the double-digit loss to Texas Tech at home two weeks ago, but a 48-14 thrashing of West Virginia on the road in Morgantown should supply enough evidence to move them from 29th up into the top 25.
25. Memphis (NR): Beating Arkansas put Memphis on the map for AP Top 25 voters, and the Tigers checked in at 31st in last week’s balloting. Beating FAU specifically doesn’t boost their stock as much as simply being 5-0 with a win against an SEC team, but the high-scoring result against the Owls certainly won’t hurt.
Projected to drop out of the rankings: No. 21 USC, No. 24 TCU
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