Yordan Alvarez has played at an MVP level all season. Now healthy, Josh Hader and Jeremy Peña have performed like All-Stars, while Hunter Brown appears to be rounding into form.
Those four are the Astros’ best players, and losing any one of them would be a major blow to the team’s postseason hopes. But it will take more than those four for Houston to maintain its lead in the American League West. These three players could go a long way toward determining the Astros’ fate:
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Cristian Javier
Javier followed up his five-scoreless-inning relief appearance last week in Anaheim with a quality start Monday against the Blue Jays, allowing three runs over six innings. His velocity was up, he threw first-pitch strikes to 16 of 24 hitters, held Toronto to an 86.1 mph average exit velocity and generated a 42% chase rate.
The Astros did not add a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, so they are counting on Peter Lambert to sustain his surprising season while Javier, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski regain their form after lengthy injury layoffs.
Javier is the most accomplished of the group, but even after allowing three runs over his last 11 innings, he will take the mound next with a 6.59 ERA. He showed flashes of his old self after returning from Tommy John surgery last season, but a shoulder strain has derailed much of his 2026 campaign.
Isaac Paredes
Paredes’ .249/.346/.413 slash line is right around his career mark, but the Astros need more if he’s going to bat directly behind Yordan Alvarez, whose 81 walks are the second most in the league. Alvarez has also been intentionally walked 23 times this season; no one else has more than nine.
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With Alvarez and Jeremy Peña batting ahead of him, Paredes is going to come to the plate with runners on base more often than not. That has been the case in 20 of his last 30 plate appearances. In those situations, Paredes is 1-for-16 with three walks and a hit by pitch.
Mired in an 0-for-16 slump, Paredes popped out in his only at-bat Wednesday after Joe Espada said he wanted to give him “a mental break.” Unexpected production from the bottom of the lineup has helped offset Paredes’ recent slide, but the Astros will need him producing at a much higher level when he returns to the starting lineup Friday in San Diego. Otherwise, opponents will have little reason to pitch to Alvarez.
Bryan Abreu
Abreu tossed a 1-2-3 inning against the Blue Jays on Wednesday, extending his scoreless streak to 10 appearances. He now owns a 1.27 ERA over his last 22 outings after posting a 7.91 ERA through his first 22.
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It’s been a tale of two seasons for Abreu. With Josh Hader on the IL, he opened the year as the Astros’ closer before quickly being banished to mop-up duty. He has since reclaimed his role as Houston’s top right-handed reliever.
He entered the season with a career 32.7% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate. His velocity has started to climb, and while his chase rate remains near the bottom of the league, it has gradually improved.
|
First 22 appearances |
Last 22 appearances |
|
|
ERA |
7.91 |
1.26 |
|
K rate |
25.5% |
35.4% |
|
BB rate |
23.5% |
7.6% |
Abreu’s dreadful start was a major reason the Astros found themselves 11 games under .500 through their first 51 games, but it may have an unexpected benefit.
Wednesday marked his 44th appearance in the Astros’ 116th game of the season. At the same point in 2025, he had already pitched in 52 games. Through 116 games in 2024, he had made 58 appearances, and in 2023, he had made 54.
He should be one of the freshest late-inning relievers in the American League heading into the stretch run.
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