The ACC joined the Big Ten and SEC as the only conferences to get multiple teams into the 12-team College Football Playoff in 2024. Now that a standard has been set, there are a handful of teams hoping to be a part of another multi-bid season in 2025. Clemson and SMU will hope for not only a return to the CFP but a chance to take the next step with a playoff win, but several other teams also the fall with playoff aspirations. Some were in the mix before stumbling late in the season, while others are hoping offseason moves can spark the on-field improvement needed to crash the bracket.
Picking the five most likely CFP contenders is an imperfect exercise in the ACC, especially when the national outlook only leaves room for a couple of nominees. Few predicted SMU into the bracket at the beginning of 2024, and even fewer thought Indiana or Arizona State would be making an appearance in the playoff. With all factors taken into consideration, we’ve got our list, ranked from most likely to least likely to contend for the CFP in 2025.
Clemson
The Tigers are one just nine teams with national championship odds of 20/1 or better (18/1), and the only team from the ACC with odds of 30/1 or better according to FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the most offseason buzz the Tigers have seen in a couple of years, and it comes on the back of a 2024 late-season charge that included an ACC Championship and a return to the CFP for the first time since 2020. Cade Klubnik was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country, throwing 36 touchdowns to just six interceptions and racking up 3,639 yards passing. Now he’ll be in Year 3 as a starter with offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, and surrounded by a group of talented young wide receivers.
Clemson expects to field one of the best offenses in the ACC, but to be a national title contender the Tigers must take steps forward on defense. That’s where Dabo Swinney addressed some of last season’s issues with a staff change, hiring Tom Allen away from Penn State to improve the details for a talented group that not always fundamentally sound in 2024. Those around the program expect to make the CFP in 2025. The real conversation is whether the Tigers will have a group that can win one — if not multiple — games in the 12-team bracket.
Mario Cristobal nearly got his alma mater into the ACC Championship Game, holding a 21-0 lead at Syracuse in the final game of the regular season. But after Kyle McCord and the Orange roared back and eventually won 42-38, the Hurricanes were shuffled out of the conference title hunt and dropped out of at-large contention in the College Football Playoff rankings. Losing Cam Ward, Xavier Restrepo and many more of the key contributors to last season’s 10-win breakthrough raises some interesting questions, but Cristobal and his staff have recruited well enough to avoid a major dip. Both lines of scrimmage should be ACC-title caliber and Cristobal addressed his leaky defense by bringing in defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman from Minnesota.
The big X-factor is Carson Beck — who turned down the NFL for a year at Miami just like Ward did a year ago. At his best, Beck is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, but a turnover-prone midseason slide in 2024 raised red flags. There’s also a question of health after an offseason surgery to Beck’s throwing arm. Make no mistake about it: Miami’s ACC title and CFP hopes rest on Beck’s return to form. But the Hurricanes should feel good about most of their roster entering 2025.
With 19 wins in his first two seasons, Jeff Brohm has been an undeniable success in his return to his hometown and alma mater. The Cardinals reached the ACC title game in 2023 and were just a few plays away from both the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff in 2024. Louisville was good enough to beat Clemson in Death Valley and fell just seven points short in close losses to SMU, Miami and national runner-up Notre Dame.
Brohm has gone back to the transfer portal to restock the depth chart for a third straight season. Much of the offseason attention will center on how former USC quarterback Miller Moss performs in an offense that has been friendly to quarterbacks in the past. The schedule is backloaded with games against Miami, Clemson and SMU all coming after Oct. 15, so the Cards might need some fortunate breaks when it comes to injuries and depth. However, with Notre Dame rotating off, the Cardinals’ slate provides the opportunity for 10 wins and also enough quality to impress the committee.
SMU
Rhett Lashlee left the American Athletic Conference with a league title and an 8-0 record agaisnt conference foes. For an encore, he did the same thing in his first season in the ACC. It’s not exactly the Pony Express in Dallas, but SMU’s level of investment competes with anyone in the ACC. Most importantly, the Mustangs have a coach who has shown the ability to thrive in the modern portal era. Though SMU wishes its CFP debut went differently, there is still plenty of offseason momentum around the program.
Kevin Jennings will be among the best quarterbacks in the ACC and he’s joined by a skill position group that should be more healthy after suffering multiple notable injures last year. Oddsmakers give SMU and Louisville comparable title odds, but we’re slotting the Mustangs here at No. 4 due to a tougher schedule than they faced in 2024. SMU adds Baylor to a non-conference slate that includes rival TCU, an ACC Championship Game rematch with Clemson (in Death Valley) and games against fellow contenders Louisville and Miami.
At FanDuel Sportsbook lists only four ACC squads with preseason win totals higher than 7.5. And while teams exceed their win total by multiple games every single season it still stands as a cold-hearted reminder of the conference’s playoff outlook. Last year we saw nine-win teams from the SEC be left on the other side of the cut line. If we take that as precedent an ACC team likely needs to win 10 regular season games or the conference championship to get in. For Florida State that would mean soaring over the team’s current win total of 7.5 with a roster that is still relying on pieces that contributed to a 2-10 campaign in 2024. It’s highly unlikely, but given Florida State’s pedigree and the potential for major improvements in the wake of wholesale changes to Mike Norvell’s coaching staff, they get the nod as the ACC’s fifth contender.
Gus Malzahn has won championships as a coordinator and competed for a national title as a head coach, and new quarterback Thomas Castellanos should bring some versatility to the offense. Meanwhile, Tony White comes highly-recommended from Nebraska as one of the top defensive coordinators in the country. Given a schedule that includes Alabama, Miami, Clemson and Florida, this is a season where even 8-4 would be viewed as a huge turnaround. But FSU will need even more than eight wins to contend for the CFP.
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