The Pittsburgh Penguins March schedule was always going to be daunting, and they are almost through it. So far, all things considered, they have handled it mostly okay, especially given the absences of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for a significant part of it. I said at the beginning if they could just play .500 or better hockey, they should be fine and maintain their playoff position. They have done that. At least to this point.
Even the past five games have been a pretty significant success. Sunday’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes was a total no-show, but even with that they still managed to get seven out of a possible 10 points. That is more than enough, and if they get seven out of the next 10 points they are still going to be in great shape.
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I said on social media on Sunday you need to do yourself a favor and not look at every individual game as a must-win game and ride that roller coaster, but look at these games as groups of games and accumulated point totals. You get seven out of every 10 points, you are in. Even if they get six out of every 10 points, you are probably in.
I know it seems like nobody in the Eastern Conference ever loses, and that none of these teams will ever lose again, but I promise you, they are. If for no other reason than a lot of them play each other quite a bit over the next few weeks. Everybody around the Penguins also plays one of the toughest schedules in the NHL.
Right now the playoff cut-line in the Eastern Conference is 98 points. I suspect it might even come down a little bit as the next few weeks progress and some of these teams actually lose some games (and they will). But let’s just say 98 points is what you need. That is six more wins for the Penguins. That is not an overly high bar, even with the schedule (which, after getting through the past week, is now only the 11th toughest remaining schedule in the NHL instead of the absolute toughest).
They also, at the moment, hold the tie-breaker over almost every team behind them and chasing them.
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So let’s just look at this as a math problem and what every team behind them would need to do record-wise (the required points percentage is in parenthesis) to pass them if they win between four and seven more games the rest of the way.
Realistically speaking I think this is a race between the Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings. Four of those five teams are going to make the playoffs. All the Penguins have to do is not finish in last among that group. Again, not an overly high bar. It is reachable. All of those teams have more difficult remaining schedules, and there are also a LOT of head-to-head games in there for all of those teams. The Penguins play the Islanders and Red Wings one more time each. Those games can go a long way toward determining things. Detroit plays Columbus and Ottawa one more time each, and Philadelphia three more times. Somebody is going to lose those games. Columbus plays Boston twice, along with its game against Detroit, and that does not get into the two games it also has against Carolina and its two road games at Montreal. Somebody is going to lose THOSE games.
The Ottawa Senators are lurking on the fringes. Maybe they can keep playing their way back in, but that is still a lot of work to do.
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The Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals just seem like they have way too much ground to make up. The Flyers would probably have to sweep all three of those games against the Red Wings, preferably (for their sake) in regulation.
You can follow sports however you want, but instead of sweating the standings every night and with every result, just focus on a target goal. Basically, if the Penguins win six more games and get to 98 points, they most likely get in. Especially if one or two of those wins come against the Islanders and/or Red Wings. If they win seven more games, get to 100 points, and somehow still do not make the playoffs I would not know what else to say except, “that’s just messed up and some really bad luck.” In the salary cap era no team has ever had even 98 points and missed the playoffs. Only two teams have ever had 96 points and missed the playoffs.
Can they start stacking some more of those wins this week?
Well, that is going to be tough, because it is another daunting week on the schedule.
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It begins on Tuesday night with their second game against the Colorado Avalanche in a little more than a week. The Penguins won the first meeting in Colorado by a 7-2 margin in a game that I am not quite sure was as lopsided as the final score would indicate. They are almost certainly going to get a much better effort from the Avalanche in this game, and they better be ready for it. Performances like they had over the weekend (even in the win against the Winnipeg Jets) are not going to be good enough. The one thing to take into account here is that Colorado has looked a little more mortal in recent weeks. After starting the season 31-2-7, the Avalanche are 15-11-3 in the 29 games that have followed. Still good. Just not quite as dominant. They look a little more beatable right now.
On Thursday the Penguins have a big Eastern Conference game at Ottawa. Even though I am not quite sold at the moment on the Senators still being *in* the playoff race, they are better than their record indicates and they have given the Penguins fits in their two previous meetings this season. The Penguins also never seem to win in Ottawa. This would be a good game to have, especially since it is sandwiched between two extraordinarily tough Western Conference games.
After playing in Ottawa on Thursday, the Penguins return home on Saturday to play the Dallas Stars who will be in the middle of a four-game, Eastern Conference road trip. Dallas is one of the best teams in hockey, and has quite honestly been the better team between them and Colorado over the past two months, even with some big injury issues. The Penguins outplayed Dallas in their first meeting this season (in Dallas) only to give up a late third period goal and lose in a shootout. In all honesty, I would take that result again in this game. Every point matters.
After playing Dallas on Saturday, they have another huge Eastern Conference game on Monday night against the New York Islanders to open the next week.
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This is going to be a tough week, and arguably just as tough, if not tougher, than the past week. If they can get three out of these six points I would consider that a win for the week. With this schedule you just have to get through it. Especially when a lot of the teams in the playoff race are all playing against each other this week. Somebody is losing. Just maintain what you are doing. They mostly have.
If they are going to continue that, they are going to need a few things. The first is better goaltending than they have been getting over the past few games. The second is better defensive play in front of those goalies and way fewer turnovers and mistakes. That is kind of why I think Sunday’s game could have been something they needed. Some bad habits had been developing in recent games, but they were still getting results. Eventually bad process turns into a bad result. They got that on Sunday. It needs to be a lesson.
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