While prior results are meaningless without context, I wish I had a time machine after what unfolded in Week 1. If I did, I’d have given you six unders to bet and we’d have fared a lot better than last week’s 3-3 record.
Maybe you sensed it watching games: offenses looked awful. You were right. Through the first week, the under is 83-61 (.576), with games finishing an average of 5.07 points below the closing total. Narrow it to FBS vs. FBS, and the under is 56-40 (.521) but with an even larger gap — games averaged 6.59 points below the number. The hit rate was lower, but when unders cashed, they did so comfortably.
That’s not why I’m on the under for both Games of the Week, though. Last week’s data has no bearing on this week’s matchups. These picks are strictly about how I expect the games to play out. I’ve also got two overs on the board.
One note: I usually pick Games of the Week only from matchups between ranked opponents. Only one game fits that description in Week 2, so I added another that features a ranked team against an opponent that at least received AP Top 25 votes. After last week’s bonanza, this week’s slate is lighter on marquee showdowns.
College football rankings: Ohio State, LSU rise as Texas, Alabama tumble in CBS Sports 136
Chip Patterson
Games of the Week
No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma: You may glance at Michigan’s 34-17 win over New Mexico and think the defense underwhelmed. But remember, New Mexico is coached by Jason Eck — the same Jason Eck who nearly tripped up Oregon last season with Idaho in a 24-14 opener. He’s not an easy prep, so don’t read too much into it.
What you should read into is Oklahoma averaging -0.01 EPA per rush against Illinois State. Yes, the Sooners won easily, and yes, they were down a couple of starters up front, but failing to dominate the line of scrimmage against an FCS team is concerning. That was their biggest issue last season, and it hasn’t gone away. John Mateer’s numbers looked great, but most of the damage came against Illinois State’s secondary — an edge Oklahoma won’t have against Michigan. I’ve seen Mateer get flustered against better defenses, and Michigan fits that bill.
On the flip side, Bryce Underwood handled himself well in his first start, but that was at home against a New Mexico defense that lacks Oklahoma’s size and speed. Make no mistake, this Sooners defense is legit — maybe top-five-in-the-country legit. Underwood won’t have the same comfort level in a hostile road environment, and I expect Michigan to lean on its run game to keep the pressure off him. Put it all together, and this feels like a low-scoring slugfest.
No. 11 Illinois at Duke: What a time to be alive! Illinois going on the road to face Duke is one of the bigger games of a football weekend! While they may not be blue blood programs, it’s an important game for both teams as both hope to make noise this season, with Illinois fancying itself a College Football Playoff contender. Both teams played FCS competition last week. Duke struggled for a half before pulling away, while Illinois didn’t meet much resistance. Still, it’s not worth drawing major conclusions for either.
Illinois is one of the more experienced teams in the country, but now it heads on the road as a favorite against a well-coached defense with a standout secondary. That matchup should push the Illini toward the ground game, especially as they work to sort out a receiving corps that lost its top two targets from last season.
On the other side, Duke’s Darian Mensah has a big arm and loves pushing the ball downfield. He reminds me of LaNorris Sellers at South Carolina, and in last year’s bowl win over the Gamecocks, Illinois neutralized that threat by taking away the deep ball. Sellers was forced into short reads, which led to checkdowns and scrambles. I’d expect the Illini to use a similar approach here. It sets up as another low-scoring game where the outcome could hinge on one critical mistake.
Lock of the Week
Oklahoma State at No. 6 Oregon: Perhaps this line seems surprisingly large to you, given that Oklahoma State has long been one of the better teams in the Big 12 under Mike Gundy. Well, while Gundy is publicly pointing to Oregon’s financial might this week — because Oklahoma State certainly never benefited from having a mega-booster at any point during Gundy’s tenure — I don’t think it’s the money that matters so much as the injury report.
Oklahoma State QB Hauss Hejny suffered a foot injury in last week’s win over UT-Martin and is out this week. In his place is Zane Flores, a freshman. Flores was perfectly suitable in his place, but there’s a rather significant gap between UT-Martin at home and Autzen Stadium. Oregon rarely blitzed last week and generated a bunch of pressure anyway. I’d expect a more aggressive approach against a possibly overwhelmed freshman this week. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s rush defense looked a little vulnerable last week, and the Ducks may exploit that, too.
Rivalry Game of the Week
Iowa at No. 16 Iowa State: One of my favorite games every year, this is a spot where I see a chance to ignore the surface results and find an edge underneath. Iowa QB Mark Gronowski’s debut was pretty awful last week. He went 8 for 15 for 44 yards. While it’s no excuse for the performance, it’s safe to assume Iowa’s game plan was extremely basic with this game looming, and I expect we’ll see some different looks this weekend.
As for Iowa State, the Cyclones are 2-0 and off to a fun start, but I have some concerns about their defense. The pass rush has been almost nonexistent. Their pressure rate of 18% ranks 126th nationally, and they have one sack through two games. They also allowed a lot of explosive plays against Kansas State. Now, the good news is, the offense has covered up these problems pretty well. I think it could find success against Iowa, too, even if the Hawkeyes’ defense is the best it’s seen so far. In the end, a total of 41.5 seems a little low.
Shootout of the Week
Miami OH at Rutgers: I don’t think the market has caught on to what Rutgers looked like last week. The Knights were in an absolute shootout with Ohio. Athan Kaliakmanis and the offense were firing off big play after big play, and then the Rutgers defense would go out there and allow big play after big play. All in all, there were 122 snaps taken in the game on offense, and 20 of them qualified as explosive plays. That’s a lot outside of Big 12 games from 2000 to 2019.
The Rutgers defense looks rough. Miami was shut out on the road against Wisconsin last week, but the Badgers’ defense is stronger than the one it’ll face here. While the RedHawks allowed only 17 points, Wisconsin starting QB Billy Edwards left the game early with an injury. There was also a red zone turnover that made the game look closer than it was. The Pick: Over 45.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Upset of the Week
No. 12 Arizona State at Mississippi State: I am not here to tell you that Mississippi State is a good team that will surprise people in the SEC this year. What I will say is that Mississippi State looked like a better team than the version we saw last year in its win over Southern Miss. This could be an opportunity to take advantage of the market being slow to adapt to the new reality.
Let’s not forget that Mississippi State lost a close game on the road against Arizona State last year. Now the game is in Starkville, and the Bulldogs have revenge on the mind. Plus, Arizona State didn’t give the most confidence-inspiring performance last week. As I’ve said, we never want to read too much into openers against FCS competition, but it was a boom-or-bust performance offensively. The Sun Devils had an explosive play rate of 25.0% but also had a negative play rate of 36.67%. And the defense gave up a bunch of explosive plays, too. Arizona State’s the favorite for good reason, but Mississippi State’s more capable of winning this game than the odds suggest.
|
Games of the Week |
2-0 |
2-0 |
+2.00 |
|
Lock of the Week |
0-1 |
0-1 |
-1.14 |
| Upset of the Week | 0-1 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
|
Overall |
3-3 |
3-3 |
-0.23 |
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