Well, it was fun while it lasted.
In Thursday’s 2-1 loss to the Astros at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies offense put together perhaps the most undisciplined displays of hitting MLB has ever seen.
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They faced Christian Javier, Houston’s right-handed starter who is a shell of the pitcher that famously threw six no-hit innings against them in Houston’s combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the 2022 World Series. He entered Thursday’s finale with a 5.98 ERA in 14 starts, and yet, the Phils were once again stymied by him, tallying just three hits.
But even worse was how the method in which they failed.
The Phillies saw 65 pitches thrown out of the strike zone against the Astros on Thursday and they swung at more of those pitches out of the zone than not. That 52.3% chase rate is the highest number ever recorded since it became a trackable number in 2009.
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So yes, the Phillies are chasing at the plate, but it goes beyond just what we see on the field.
They’re also chasing their ultimate goal of a World Series title.
Are the two related?
Following the arrival of Luis Arraez from the Giants at the beginning of August, the offense underwent a much-publicized transformation.
Suddenly, a team that had for years been among the worst offenders in chasing pitches out of the strike zone was resisting their primal urges. A team that, for the first five months of the 2026 season, had the lowest on-base percentage in the sport, was getting on base more than any other. A team that had one of the highest strikeout rates had the lowest, and a team that had one of the lowest walk rates, had the highest.
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Through July: .303 OBP (30th), 7.8 BB% (28), 23.7 K% (25)
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8/1 through 8/23: .367 OBP (2nd), 11.6 BB% (1), 14.5 K% (1)
It was a remarkable turnaround, one that was really difficult to comprehend. How could a team that had, for so many years, displayed such an aggressive approach at the plate suddenly change their stripes as a collective unit? Some credit was being heaped on Arraez, at least on the reduction of strikeouts, although Arraez is not known to be one of the most patient hitters at the plate, either.
We all wondered, could it last?
It did not. Beginning with their west coast road trip in Seattle, the Phils left their patience on the plane. Since the start of their three-game series against the Mariners, they have a .293 OBP (4th-worst), 7.6 BB% (22nd), and 21.5 K% (19th).
Their 34.9% chase rate over that stretch is tied for 8th-highest. From August 1 through 24, it was 31.5%, 21st.
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After Thursday’s game, Bryce Harper acknowledged the Phils essentially handed Javier an easy day, and noted these kinds of efforts cannot happen.
Once the calendar flips to October, it’s not suddenly going to become easier not to chase. Learn the habits now and they’ll become habits when it matters most.
As the team chases their elusive World Series title, the pressure will only mount. And in recent seasons, when pressure has mounted on the Phils, particularly in the postseason, their chasing leads to more chasing.
And that’s the point. When the Phillies had their magical ride to the World Series in 2022, the only thing they were chasing was ending their 11-year postseason drought. And make no mistake, they did not play well in the season’s final month, almost choking that away. But after finally earning the final wild card spot, they were done chasing. They were in the moment, with no pressure on them, and played the best baseball we’ve seen from them during this five-year run of success.
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Things are different now. The weight of postseason failures are heavy and this team presses as a result. They’re constantly chasing that moment, chasing that home run in a big spot, chasing that 2022 and ’23 feeling again.
For a few weeks, they stopped doing that. They let pitchers come to them. They took their walks. They passed the baton. As a result, they scored a lot of runs and won a ton of games.
It’s hard to imagine the Phillies playing with patience in a pennant race and in October, but Harper is right.
If they don’t get back at least a little of what they did for the first three weeks of August, it’s likely going to be another short run of postseason baseball in October for them.
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