The Official Open Championship EasySportz Preview

Golf fans around the world are gearing up for the final major championship of the season. With several intriguing storylines entering Royal Birkdale, we looked at the betting favorites and compared them to Jordan Spieth’s statistical profile before his 2017 Open Championship victory at the same venue.

The Reference Point

Jordan Spieth – 2017 Open Champion

Before winning at Royal Birkdale, Spieth ranked:

Top 10 in Greens in Regulation (GIR)
Second in Strokes Gained: Approach
Top 20 in Strokes Gained: Scrambling
Fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting

Those four categories provide a useful benchmark for evaluating this year’s contenders.

Scottie Scheffler

United States | OWGR No. 1 | +590

The past few weeks have been uncharacteristically quiet for world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.

After battling the cut line, Scheffler finally missed a cut for the first time in 78 consecutive events, ending one of the greatest streaks in PGA Tour history. Ryan’s article breaks down just how historic that run truly was.

The biggest concern this season has been his putting. Scheffler ranks 18th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, and several putts that fans have come to expect him to make simply haven’t fallen.

That will be especially important at Royal Birkdale.

Links golf rewards players who can scramble around the greens, and Scheffler remains one of the best in the world in that category, ranking third on Tour. Deep bunkers and thick fescue mean saving par will be just as important as making birdies.

Working in Scheffler’s favor is his elite ball striking. He leads the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation, which should help minimize the damage caused by an average putting week.

If Scheffler fails to win, he will have gone four consecutive majors without capturing a title. While that isn’t unusual for most golfers, expectations are simply different for the reigning Open champion after the dominant stretch he has enjoyed over the past two seasons.

Ironically, this week gives Scheffler a chance to defend the Claret Jug.

It would be a very Scottie Scheffler thing to do by silencing any lingering doubts with another major victory.

One interesting note: Scheffler has never played a professional round at Royal Birkdale.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile:

GIR: 1st — Meets Spieth benchmark
SG: Approach: 17th — Below benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 3rd — Meets benchmark
SG: Putting: 18th — Below benchmark

Rory McIlroy

Northern Ireland | OWGR No. 2 | +760

Rory McIlroy enters Royal Birkdale with plenty of momentum, although parts of his game have held him back since winning the Masters.

As always, McIlroy remains one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world. His biggest challenges have been putting and scrambling, two areas that become increasingly important on links-style courses.

Driving distance should be an advantage this week, but hitting greens in regulation will ultimately determine how well he scores. McIlroy ranks fourth on Tour in GIR, second only to Scheffler among the favorites.

His lighter tournament schedule could also work in his favor. With less wear and tear throughout the season, he should arrive at Royal Birkdale feeling fresh.

A tie for seventh at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open only reinforces that belief.

Since winning the Masters, McIlroy has finished inside the top 20 in every start except the U.S. Open, where he tied for 32nd.

His lone Open Championship victory came in 2014, and another Claret Jug would further cement one of the greatest careers of the modern era.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile:

GIR: 4th — Meets benchmark
SG: Approach: 6th — Below benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 54th — Below benchmark
SG: Putting: 67th — Below benchmark

Tommy Fleetwood

England | OWGR No. 9 | +1750

Tommy Fleetwood has quietly put together a strong season.

After missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Fleetwood responded with a top-five finish at the Memorial Tournament before posting four consecutive top-20 finishes. Several of those results came close to becoming top-10s, including a tie for 11th at the U.S. Open.

Greens in Regulation will once again be critical this week, and Fleetwood ranks sixth on Tour in that category.

While both his putting and Strokes Gained: Approach numbers trail the Tour’s elite, his scrambling ranks fifth. That could prove to be the difference at Royal Birkdale.

If Fleetwood continues to save pars around the greens and holes a few unexpected putts, don’t be surprised if he extends his recent run of strong play.

Fleetwood tied for 27th the last time The Open visited Royal Birkdale in 2017.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile:

GIR: 6th — Meets benchmark
SG: Approach: 53rd — Well below benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 5th — In line with Spieth
SG: Putting: 55th — Well below benchmark

Matt Fitzpatrick

England | OWGR No. 3 | +1750

Matt Fitzpatrick has enjoyed an outstanding season.

From earning his brother a PGA Tour card while playing alongside him to maintaining his No. 3 world ranking, Fitzpatrick has consistently been one of the best players on Tour.

While his Strokes Gained: Approach numbers fall just short of Jordan Spieth’s 2017 benchmark, his Greens in Regulation and scrambling statistics stand out as key strengths heading into Royal Birkdale.

As we’ve seen over the years, strong scramblers tend to excel on links-style courses, and Fitzpatrick’s familiarity with these conditions as an Englishman could prove to be an advantage.

Like many players in this field, his biggest weakness has been the putter. Poor Strokes Gained: Putting numbers have cost him valuable strokes and better finishes throughout the season.

Still, his overall game is trending in the right direction.

Fitzpatrick finished solo fourth at the Travelers Championship before tying for third at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. Over the past two weeks, he has consistently put himself in contention, and he appears poised to make another run this week.

With Scottie Scheffler’s streak of 78 consecutive made cuts coming to an end, Fitzpatrick now owns the longest active made-cut streak on the PGA Tour at 28 events.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile:

GIR: 6th — Meets Spieth benchmark
SG: Approach: 5th — Slightly below benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 18th — In line with Spieth
SG: Putting: 112th — Well below benchmark

Jon Rahm

Spain | OWGR No. 11 | +1950

Jon Rahm has continued to dominate on the LIV Golf circuit, collecting multiple victories during his time there.

Because Rahm has played a limited number of PGA Tour events, his PGA statistical rankings aren’t reliable enough for direct comparison. His LIV numbers, however, remain impressive.

Rahm ranks first in Greens in Regulation and first in Strokes Gained: Approach on LIV. His putting also compares favorably to Spieth’s statistical profile entering the 2017 Open Championship, although the level of competition should be considered.

His major championship performances have been mixed this season.

Rahm finished runner-up at the PGA Championship but placed outside the top 25 at both the Masters and last week’s Genesis Scottish Open while also missing the cut at the U.S. Open.

Shinnecock Hills provided a strong preview of the type of golf required this week, and Rahm’s performance there suggests he may enter Royal Birkdale on the outside looking in.

History also isn’t entirely on his side.

The last time The Open was played at Royal Birkdale in 2017, Rahm finished tied for 44th.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile (LIV statistics):

GIR: 1st — Meets Spieth benchmark
SG: Approach: 1st — Meets benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 4th — In line with Spieth
SG: Putting: 9th — Slightly below benchmark

Xander Schauffele

United States | OWGR No. 14 | +2400

Xander Schauffele enters the week as one of the more intriguing long shots among the betting favorites.

At +2400, he offers solid value despite entering Royal Birkdale outside the very top tier of contenders.

Like several players near the top of the odds board, Schauffele’s scrambling numbers remain excellent. His putting ranks 47th on Tour, while his Greens in Regulation ranking sits 38th, making iron play the biggest area that needs improvement this week.

The biggest reason to like Schauffele is simple.

He consistently shows up at major championships.

This season alone, he tied for seventh at the Masters, tied for seventh at the PGA Championship and tied for 11th at the U.S. Open.

That resume speaks for itself.

Another factor working in his favor is the extra preparation time he gained after missing the cut last week, giving him two additional days to familiarize himself with Royal Birkdale.

If this weren’t a major championship, I might be inclined to look elsewhere.

But history says Schauffele usually elevates his game when the stakes are highest.

He tied for 20th the last time The Open visited Royal Birkdale in 2017 and will look to improve on that finish this week.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile:

GIR: 38th — Does not meet Spieth benchmark
SG: Approach: 30th — Well below benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 13th — In line with Spieth
SG: Putting: 47th — Well below benchmark

Chris Gotterup

United States | OWGR No. 6 | +2900

Chris Gotterup continues to establish himself as one of the PGA Tour’s rising stars.

While some may argue he benefited from circumstances during his victory at the John Deere Classic, shooting a final-round 63 to steal the tournament was an impressive performance regardless of the situation.

Last week, Gotterup tied for 11th at the Genesis Scottish Open, another encouraging result entering the year’s final major.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile, however, Gotterup falls short in nearly every key statistical category. His strongest ranking is 35th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

For him to contend this week, he’ll likely need his best scrambling performance of the season while continuing the hot putting that fueled his recent success.

It’s certainly possible, but he’ll need everything to click.

Although Gotterup has yet to win a major championship, he finished solo third at last year’s Open Championship. While that event wasn’t held at Royal Birkdale, it demonstrated that he can compete on links-style courses.

Don’t be surprised if he once again finds himself in contention.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile:

GIR: 48th — Does not meet Spieth benchmark
SG: Approach: 46th — Well below benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 74th — Below benchmark
SG: Putting: 35th — Well below benchmark

Cameron Young

United States | OWGR No. 4 | +2900

Cameron Young enters Royal Birkdale looking to rediscover the form that made him one of golf’s hottest players over the past 18 months.

Since his victory in Miami in early May, Young has struggled to separate himself from the field. Aside from a tie for 10th at the Truist Championship, he has hovered around the middle of the leaderboard, often finishing in the 40s.

His biggest issue has been hitting greens in regulation.

Young ranks 44th in GIR, ahead of only Chris Gotterup among the players featured in this preview.

His putting has also been inconsistent, but his inability to consistently give himself quality birdie opportunities has been the larger concern.

The biggest reason to believe in Young this week is his proven success on links courses.

He finished runner-up at St. Andrews in 2022 and has shown he can thrive in this style of golf.

If Young is going to contend, his approach play will need to be among the best in the field while relying on his scrambling to erase mistakes around the greens.

At this point, he’s a true long shot.

However, if he gets off to a fast start during the opening two rounds, don’t be surprised if he puts together a serious run.

Compared to Spieth’s 2017 profile:

GIR: 44th — Does not meet Spieth benchmark
SG: Approach: 21st — Below benchmark
SG: Scrambling: 14th — In line with Spieth
SG: Putting: 71st — Well below benchmark

Best Longshot Bets

While the favorites deserve plenty of attention, major championships often produce surprise contenders. These players offer intriguing value based on recent form, course fit or current odds.

Robert MacIntyre

Scotland | +5000

If there is one longshot who stands out this week, it’s Robert MacIntyre.

The Scot enters The Open in excellent form after tying for third at the Genesis Scottish Open and continues to play some of his best golf of the season. Few players in the field are more comfortable in windy, links-style conditions, and the hometown support should only add to the atmosphere.

MacIntyre also finished tied for sixth at last year’s Open Championship, proving he can contend on golf’s biggest stage.

At 50-to-1 odds, he offers tremendous value.

Keita Nakajima

Japan | +7500

Keita Nakajima has quietly become one of the hottest players entering Royal Birkdale.

He finished tied for third at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open and has consistently improved throughout the season. His ball striking has been outstanding, and if the putter cooperates, he could become one of the tournament’s biggest surprises.

For bettors looking to sprinkle a few dollars on a true sleeper, Nakajima is worth consideration.

Min Woo Lee

Australia | +6500

Min Woo Lee once again showed his ability to compete on links courses after finishing runner-up at the Genesis Scottish Open.

Lee possesses one of the most creative short games in professional golf, a skill that often separates contenders from pretenders at The Open.

If he can keep the driver under control and avoid costly mistakes off the tee, don’t be surprised to see him contend late Sunday afternoon.

Best Bets

Ryan Rosati’s Pick

Rory McIlroy (+760)

Rory McIlroy checks many of the boxes entering Royal Birkdale.

His ball striking remains among the best on Tour, and his recent form has been remarkably consistent. While putting continues to be his biggest weakness, McIlroy’s ability to hit greens in regulation should give him plenty of birdie opportunities.

A second Open Championship would further cement his legacy, and this feels like one of his best opportunities in recent years.

Jackson Fryburger’s Pick

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1750)

Matt Fitzpatrick enters the week playing some of the best golf of his season.

Back-to-back top-five finishes have him trending in the right direction, and his scrambling ability should translate extremely well to Royal Birkdale. While the putter remains a concern, his overall consistency and familiarity with links golf make him one of the best values on the board.

At nearly 18-to-1 odds, Fitzpatrick offers tremendous upside.

Tyler Smith’s Pick

Scottie Scheffler (+590)

Sometimes the obvious pick is the correct one.

Scottie Scheffler remains the best player in the world despite missing the cut last week in Scotland. His elite ball striking and scrambling continue to separate him from the field, and a disappointing performance often serves as motivation rather than a sign of decline.

Don’t be surprised if Scheffler responds by defending his Open Championship title.

Final Thoughts

The final major championship of the season always delivers compelling storylines, and this year’s Open Championship is no exception.

Scottie Scheffler looks to bounce back after his historic made-cut streak came to an end. Rory McIlroy hopes to add another Claret Jug to his résumé. Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick will attempt to capture a major championship on home soil, while players such as Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young look to remind the golf world why they remain among the sport’s elite.

Beyond the favorites, longshots such as Robert MacIntyre, Keita Nakajima and Min Woo Lee have the talent to make a serious run if conditions become challenging.

Royal Birkdale has rewarded complete golfers throughout its history. Players who strike the ball well, scramble effectively and stay patient when the weather turns typically find themselves in contention.

One thing is certain.

By Sunday evening, one golfer will lift the Claret Jug and etch his name into Open Championship history.

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