We’re officially past the halfway point of the regular season for most teams. It’s a depressing thought, but here we are. With the way the calendar falls in 2024, there are multiple byes for teams this year, and many are off in Week 9. The key to the bye is the important practice of self-scouting, which I am doing with 10 bold predictions The Monday Read had during September. We’re going to watch the film and self-correct, so make sure you bring a pen and a notebook to the meeting.
1) Clemson is out of national title contention: This was crystalized after the Georgia game. The Tigers were frankly uncompetitive after another year of abstaining from the transfer portal. The key assertion from Clemson has always been that they didn’t need to use the portal because the guys on their roster were good enough. It’s the platonic ideal of college football roster building, but TMR had come to seriously doubt if Clemson could pull it off.
Now, the Tigers sit 5-0 in ACC play and 6-1 overall, and they’ve put up at least 40 on four conference opponents. This isn’t the Clemson of the Deshaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence days, but this is a team on the cusp of proving its doubters wrong. A massive game with Louisville awaits (in which the Cardinals will try to keep their own faint conference title hopes alive), as do Virginia Tech and Pitt. Win those and Clemson is likely in the conference championship game and would be a favorite on betting apps for a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
2) Tennessee is elite: Well, it’s half right because Tennessee’s defense is certainly not the problem. There’s a moment after the win over Oklahoma when Tennessee coach Josh Heupel pulls QB Nico Iamaleava aside and tells him that he “pulled back,” in a nod to the Vols pulling back against the Sooners in the second half of their game. At this point, however, there’s reason to wonder if Tennessee would have been able to execute an offensive game plan to do that. The Vols have gotten tremendous production from running back Dylan Sampson, but the book is otherwise out on how to slow their offense down: play mostly drop 8 coverage and force Iamaleava to be patient and accurate.
He’s struggled to do so, and the Vols haven’t scored in the first half of their three games since the Sooners. They’ve also struggled to hit deep balls to generate explosive plays and take the top off of defenses. The Vols have an off week after beating Alabama but still have Kentucky, Georgia and Vanderbilt left on the schedule. Can they get through that stretch unscathed? It’s doubtful the way this offense is currently playing.
3) Alabama’s going keep on ticking: Everything we thought about Alabama was built on the mirage of their execution of a game plan coming out of a bye week against Georgia. They gave the Bulldogs looks they had not seen on both sides of the ball and were blowing Georgia out … until they weren’t. Georgia stormed back, Ryan Williams performed heroics, Domani Jackson got the interception late and Tide survived. They did not the following week against Vanderbilt. After barely beating South Carolina and losing to Tennessee, the Vanderbilt game wasn’t the fluke, the Georgia game was.
4) Florida State can’t be that bad, right? It appears, dear reader, that the Seminoles can. Thoughts of an offensive dead cat bounce thanks to new QB Brock Glenn are now done after losing to Duke for the first time in school history (and FSU was an underdog). Games against Miami and Notre Dame remain, and a bowl game is almost certainly out of the picture. Teams of FSU’s caliber have nightmare seasons (Notre Dame, Florida and Auburn have gone 4-8 in the last decade, for instance), but it is jarring that things just continue to get worse. A 14-9 win over Cal is the only time the ‘Noles have been on the right side of the ledger.
5) SMU isn’t ready for prime time in the ACC: The Ponies’ early season struggles and quarterback roulette did not create much cause for optimism, but they’re rolling now with Kevin Jennings at QB1 and the loss to BYU looks pretty damn good in hindsight. Now, SMU’s soft ACC schedule as a new entrant could be their biggest asset as they look to make their case at a league title in their maiden power-conference voyage.
6) Colorado’s just the same ol’ thing: Not only has Shedeur Sanders improved, especially with pocket mobility, CU has shown to be physical enough to compete in the Big 12 along the lines of scrimmage. They may not quite be a Big 12 title contender, but they are holding their own (even without Travis Hunter for much of the past two games).
7) UNLV is in disarray: Perhaps the real verdict to the Matthew Sluka NIL debacle for UNLV is addition by subtraction. No matter what happens vs. Boise State in an epic Mountain West Friday night tilt this week, or even in the rest of the conference race, the Rebels are better offensively with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback, especially in the passing game. UNLV has all of its goals ahead of it, and those for now include a legit shot at the CFP, but it might have to get through Boise State twice in order to do so.
9) USC was going to take a step this season: LSU win? Great. First shutout since 2011 over Utah State? Great. Even though the Trojans lost to Michigan, they looked largely capable enough defensively to make you think there’s something to build on before it became truly clear that Michigan was horrible on offense.
But as injuries and redshirt opt-outs pile up for the Trojans, so do the losses (three straight). And it looks like USC hasn’t really made much progress at all.
9) Rutgers is going 8-4: This is technically still in play, but the Rutgers appreciators among us can acknowledge that it is getting late early for New York City’s Big Ten team. A bowl game is still well within their grasp, but there was a bygone point of the season when simply going .500 looked like it would be the floor. A few straight losses have put a dent in high hopes for this team, but there is still time to turn things around and respond to a little midseason adversity.
10) USF will be the breakout offense in the Group of Five: Even before quarterback Byrum Brown got hurt, the Bulls were not tracking towards their form on offense late last season. Alex Golesh’s offense were built to score in droves at Tennessee, but Brown hadn’t taken the next step as a passer.
Carousel update of the week
A few weeks ago, Purdue got the carousel going with a performance-based firing of offensive coordinate Graham Harrell. Oklahoma (Seth Littrell), Utah (Andy Ludwig) and Coastal Carolina (Travis Trickett) have joined them in an offensive coordinator change.
ECU fired Mike Houston and Southern Miss fired Will Hall, whose contract was set to expire at the end of this season. Both jobs are decidedly different.
Southern Miss (1-6): Despite its location, this is a difficult job with industry sources describing the ceiling to The Monday Read as bowl eligibility. The next coach’s salary isn’t expected to get over the $1 million threshold, which is bottom quarter nationally. Southern Miss has a proud history, but that was then and this is now, and the Eagles have a thinned out donor base.
ECU (3-4): ECU has some money, with a salary number expected at north of $2 million, which puts it in the upper half of AAC jobs, but the Pirates have lacked in the facilities department. A capital project for an indoor practice facility has met its goal, though, and the building is expected to be completed ahead of the 2026 season.
Personnel management decision of the week
Travis Hunter’s Heisman Trophy case rests on him averaging more than 130 snaps per game while playing at a high level. If he’s not playing, though, then it’s doubtful he’ll bring it home. Hunter sat for the second half against Arizona after aggravating a shoulder injury, marking the second time in a row he missed the end of a game. For more Heisman odds as Hunter and Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty make their cases, visit Fanatics.
Lopsided win of the week
Montana Tech won 97-0 over Simpson University at the NAIA level this week. It’s Simpson’s inaugural season, and the growing pains are significant. They were outgained 626-30 and trailed 43-0 at the end of the first quarter.
Stat of the week
Thrice is nice for UNLV’s Ricky White, who has three blocked punts this season already by himself. There are 120 FBS teams who haven’t blocked that many kicks or punts this season.
Notable quotable
Arizona State hasn’t made a field goal in three games, and coach Kenny Dillinaham is fed up. He told reporters: “Our kicking game’s atrocious … So, if you can kick and you’re at Arizona State, email me. We’re going to have kicking tryouts on Monday, so bring it on.”
It harkens back to Mike Leach, who once pulled a student off the field in a fan contest. Dillingham walked his harsh comments back, but some lucky ASU student does have the opportunity of the lifetime here, and odds are someone at one of the biggest public schools in the country can come through.
Jump shot of the week
Basketball season is right around the corner, and clearly the Crimson Tide are ready:
Week 9 CFP projection
- Oregon (Big Ten champion, bye)
- Georgia (SEC champion, bye)
- Miami (ACC champion, bye)
- BYU (Big 12 champion, bye)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Texas
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- Tennessee
- Boise State (Mountain West champion)
First four out: Indiana, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State
Check out the latest CFP futures, via Fanatics Sportsbook
Meal of the week: smoked salmon toast at Smør
The Monday Read historically has not cared for breakfast, but living in New York City does introduce one to the delicacy that is smoked fish either on a bagel or on toast. Smør, a Scandavian restaurant specializing in Nordic fare, was founded in 2019 by two guys named Sebastian. This salmon toast sits on Dill crème and is topped with lemon curd, pickled pearl onion and dill. The flavor combination is stunning with the lemon curd cutting the saltiness of the fish perfectly.
Thing TMR is already excited for next week
It’s Vanderbilt’s biggest home game since … ever … when the ‘Dores host Texas. Of course, they will be heavy underdogs, but don’t tell that to the Vandy team that upset Alabama
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