A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy baseball categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Aaron Nola’s 6.43 ERA is a lie
Nola was drafted as the SP20 in Yahoo leagues, but he’s 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA that ranks fourth-worst among 81 qualified starters. Nola’s BB% (8.7) is a bit up, but he’s also been incredibly unlucky during all the factors (mostly) outside of his control. Nola’s .364 BABIP is the fifth-highest in the league and well above his career mark (.294). Nola’s 66.5 LOB% and 24.0 HR/FB% are also both among the bottom of MLB and well off his career rates. His 6.43 ERA comes with a lower SIERA (3.58) than he posted last season.
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However, while command has been an issue, Nola has also seen a drop in velocity on both his fastball and sinker. Weather has been blamed some, and Nola’s velocity was in the same range last April. In fact, Nola’s velocity has tended to start out slow and then increase throughout the first half of the season during his career. Fantasy managers are hoping for the same in 2025, when Nola is also due for major regression.
Julio Rodríguez’s .690 OPS is a lie
Rodríguez has nearly doubled last season’s BB%, owns a career-low K% and a career-high average exit velocity yet has his worst OPS ever. He’s batting just .059 (despite a 16.7 K% and a 25.0 BB%) with runners in scoring position. Rodríguez’s .246 BABIP is nearly 100 points lower than his career mark. Rodríguez’s .306 wOBA comes with a .358 expected wOBA.
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Rodríguez owns a lowly .646 OPS during April throughout his career. His wRC+ jumps from 114 before the All-Star break up to 155 afterward. This is Rodríguez’s fourth straight slow April to start a season, but patient fantasy managers have previously been rewarded (JRod hit .328 with seven homers and six steals over 26 games in September last season).
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Rodríguez will continue to be hurt by his home park, but he’s in a lineup with the fourth-best wRC+ and he’s running more than last season. He’ll go on a tear soon enough.
Dylan Crews’ No. 258 fantasy rank is a lie
Crews’ fantasy value has been hurt by an ugly .195 batting average, but that comes with a .285 xBA that’s in the top 20% of the league. Crews has doubled his Barrel% compared to last season, as he’s already totaled two more Barrels while seeing half as many pitches. Crews’ plate discipline has admittedly been shaky, but his lowly .218 BABIP is likely to rise significantly given his 98th percentile Sprint Speed. Crews has benefitted from a two-homer game in Coors Field, but he’s one of just three hitters yet to record a hit with runners in scoring position (17 ABs), so his anemic RBI production is sure to rise. Crews already has seven stolen base attempts despite a .225 OBP, so his fantasy upside is clear.
Roki Sasaki’s 3.20 ERA is a lie
Sasaki has lasted longer in games recently, including completing six innings for the first time during his last outing. But he’s undoubtedly been incredibly fortunate to start his MLB career. Sasaki hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any start, but his 3.20 ERA comes with a 16:16 K:BB ratio, a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.87 SIERA that would rank second-worst among qualified starters.
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Sasaki’s velocity hasn’t been as advertised, leading to a Stuff+ (90), a SwStr% (9.2) and a CSW (24.0%) that would all also rank toward the bottom of the league. The previously extremely bullish projection systems have quickly become far more modest rest-of-season, with OOPSY projecting a 4.46 ERA moving forward.
Sasaki will almost certainly get better with more experience (he’ll also benefit from a home start against Pittsburgh next time out), but he’s been extremely fortunate to open his MLB career.
Salvador Pérez’s .185 batting average is a lie
Pérez’s .185 BA comes with a .283 xBA, which is the biggest difference among 268 hitters. His plate discipline has remained mostly normal, and his Barrel% (15.9) is the second highest of his career. Pérez’s .224 BABIP is well below his career mark (.289). There’s always a chance of a sudden decline as a catcher who’s about to turn 35, but there are no big warning signs here. Only Coors Field has boosted batting average more than Kauffman Stadium over the last three seasons, so expect Pérez’s BA to make a big jump.
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